Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998

The predicted Republican landslide didn't materialize in the 1998 election; nor did the Clinton scandal play a major role in how people voted. Newspapers can tell their readers as much as this, and pundits can guess at the underlying causes. Only Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections employs reliable empirical data to explain why the American people voted as they did.

Employing the National Election Studies survey from the University of Michigan and other reputable polls, the authors analyze:
-- Why voters rejected the Republican scandal agenda
-- What issues were uppermost on voters' minds
-- Which voting groups voted for whom ... and why, and
-- How the 1998 election bodes for the year 2000 presidential election and beyond.

Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections also includes complete analysis of the 1996 elections that brought Clinton to the White House for a second term.

Tables and Figures

viii

Preface

xii

PART 1 The 1996 Presidential Election

1

(60)

The Nomination Struggle

11

(16)

Who Ran

12

(3)

The Rules of the Nomination System

15

(5)

Why Dole Won

20

(5)

The Conventions

25

(2)

The General Election Campaign

27

(15)

The Strategic Context and Candidates' Choices

27

(4)

From Labor Day to the Debates

31

(3)

The Debates: A Democratic ``Hat Trick''

34

(2)

Final Efforts

36

(2)

Did the Campaign Matter?

38

(4)

The Election Results

42

(19)

The Perot Vote and the Election Rules

43

(5)

The Pattern of Results

48

(2)

State-by-State Results

50

(5)

Electoral Change in the Postwar South

55

(2)

The Electoral Vote Balance

57

(4)

PART 2 Voting Behavior in the 1996 Presidential Election

61

(130)

Who Voted?

65

(26)

Turnout from 1828 through 1916

65

(3)

Turnout from 1920 through 1996

68

(3)

Turnout among Social Groups

71

(8)

Why Has Turnout Declined?

79

(7)

Does Low Turnout Matter?

86

(5)

Social Forces and the Vote

91

(24)

How Social Groups Voted in 1996

92

(8)

How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years

100

(13)

Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down

113

(2)

Candidates, Issues, and the Vote

115

(28)

Attitudes toward the Candidates

116

(5)

Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations

121

(2)

The Concerns of the Electorate

123

(2)

Issue Positions and Perceptions

125

(4)

Issue Voting Criteria

129

(3)

Apparent Issue Voting in 1996

132

(9)

The Issue Preferences of Perot Voters

141

(1)

Conclusion

142

(1)

Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice

143

(21)

What is Retrospective Voting?

144

(2)

Evaluations of Governmental Performance

146

(4)

Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent

150

(5)

Evaluations of the Incumbent

155

(1)

The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations

155

(6)

The Retrospective Evaluations of Perot Voters

161

(2)

Conclusion

163

(1)

Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote

164

(27)

Party Identification: The Standard View

164

(1)

Party Identification: An Alternative View

165

(1)

Party Identification in the Electorate

166

(6)

Party Identification and the Vote

172

(2)

Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations

174

(11)

The Perot Candidacy

185

(4)

Conclusion

189

(2)

PART 3 The 1996 and 1998 Congressional Elections

191

(84)

Candidates and Outcomes in 1996

197

(38)

Election Outcomes in 1996

197

(15)

Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes

212

(11)

The 1996 Elections: The Impact on Congress

223

(4)

The 1998 Elections and Beyond

227

(8)

The Congressional Electorate in 1996

235

(14)

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote

235

(4)

Issues and the Congressional Vote

239

(1)

Party Identification and the Congressional Vote

240

(2)

Incumbency and the Congressional Vote

242

(2)

The Congressional Vote as a Referendum

244

(2)

Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote

246

(2)

Conclusion

248

(1)

The 1998 Congressional Elections

249

(26)

The Pattern of Outcomes

249

(2)

Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results

251

(4)

National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections

255

(10)

The 1998 Elections: The Impact on Congress

265

(5)

The 2000 Elections and Beyond

270

(5)

PART 4 The 1996 and 1998 Elections in Perspective

275

(18)

The 1996 and 1998 Elections and the Future of American Politics

279

(14)

Prospects for the Democrats

282

(5)

Prospects for the Republicans

287

(1)

Prospects for a New Political Party

288

(2)

Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility

290

(3)

Notes

293

(52)

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Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials