China and America : A Time of Reckoning

Leading economic forecaster Charles Dumas shows how China's surging trade surplus is fueling economic crisis in the U.S. and Europe. If China does not take action to correct the balance, the outlook is grim. In his last book,The Bill from the China Shop, Charles Dumas predicted how the Asian savings glut would force-feed US mortgage borrowing to excess. His new work points to the next risks. The current credit crunch is likely to be followed by an economic downswing, led by housing, but with weakened household wealth and confidence prolonging the pain. Now China's explosive exports are feeding through to overheat the domestic economy. Inflation is accelerating fast. Yet Beijing can only fight it by unpopular repression of domestic demand or finally letting China's yuan soar. A severe cutback in China's growthprobably after the Olympicsseems likely. If the Chinese authorities allow major yuan appreciation and progressively freer overseas investment, both the Chinese and world economies could rebalance quite easily. But if Beijing maintains a stubborn defense of the cheap yuan and control over its citizens' savings, the global outlook is set to be much darker.

Charles Dumas is a leading macroeconomic forecaster and the author of The Bill from the China Shop: How Asia's Savings Glut Threatens the World Economy. He was formerly a journalist at The Economist and an economist at General Motors and J. P. Morgan.