Clear Thinking with Psychology Separating Sense from Nonsense

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ISBN: 9780534536596 | 053453659X
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 7/13/2001

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Ruscio's new book provides a tangible and compelling framework for making that distinction. Because we are inundated with "scientific" claims, the author does not merely differentiate science and pseudoscience, but goes further to teach the fundamentals of scientific reasoning on which readers can base their evaluation of information.

Preface

xiii

Challenging Widely Accepted Claims

xiii

Empowering Students to Evalute Claims for Themselves

Distinguishing Science from Pseudoscience

Teaching Scientific Reasoning Skills

Using Memorable Examples

xvi

Exploring Material Relevant to Many Courses

xvi

Broad Coverage Is Complemented by Electronic Resources

xvi

Acknowledgments

xvii

About the Author

xviii

Evaluating Sources Whether in Print or on the World Wide Web

xix

Sharpening and Leveling

Criteria for Evaluating the Quality of Sources

xxi

Popularity

xxi

Reviews

xxii

The Internet as a Research Tool

xxiii

The Content of Web Sites

xxiii

Internet Searches

xxiv

Thinking for Yourself

xxv

Introduction: Pseudoscience and the Need for Clear Thinking

(15)

Separating Sense from Nonsense

(3)

Studying Human Reasoning

(1)

Systematic Errors Reveal Our Mental Shortcuts

(1)

The Pros and Cons of Relying on Shortcuts

(1)

Thinking Clearly

(1)

Applying the Tools of Clear Thinking

(1)

Ten Characteristics of Pseudoscience

(4)

Outward Appearance of Science

(1)

Absence of Skeptical Peer Review

(1)

Reliance on Personal Experience

(1)

Evasion of Risky Tests

(1)

Retreats to the Supernatural

(1)

The Mantra of Holism

(1)

Tolerance of Inconsistencies

(1)

Appeals to Authority

(1)

Promising the Impossible

(1)

Stagnation

(1)

The Plan of This Book

(6)

Deception

(1)

Self-Deception

(1)

Psychological Tricks

(1)

Decision Making and Ethics

(3)

Part One Deception

Language: Misleading and Evasive Tactics

(14)

Weasel Words and Framing Effects

(4)

Cooperation and Conversational Maxims

(7)

Quality: The Myth of ``Health Food''

(1)

Quantity: Suggestive and Leading Questions

(2)

Relation: The Irrelevant Language of ``Alternative'' Health Care

(2)

Manner: The Emptiness of ``Holism''

(2)

Closing Thoughts: False Dichotomies and the Slippery Slope

(3)

Magic: The Allure of Exotic Rituals, Fantasy, and Mysticism

(12)

Believing in Magic

(1)

Wishful Thinking

(2)

Belief in a Vitalistic Energy

(1)

Putting the ``Human Energy Field'' to the Test

(1)

The Creation of Superstitions and Exotic Rituals

(2)

Superstitions as Representative Thinking

(1)

Maintenance of Superstitions

(1)

Abuses of Science in Favor of Mysticism

(1)

The Magic of Modern Technology

(2)

Authority: Appeals to Blind Obedience

(14)

Milgram's Obedience Research

(3)

Understanding Milgram's Results

(1)

When Should We Obey?

(1)

Untrustworthy Authorities

(3)

The ``Ancient Wisdom'' Fallacy

(1)

The Popularity Fallacy

(1)

The Fallacy of Self-Proclaimed Expertise

(2)

Political Lobbying as a Warning Flag

(6)

The National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine

(2)

The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act

(4)

Part Two Self-Deception

Experience: The Limitations of Testimonials as Evidence

(12)

Self-Deception

(1)

Competing Explanations

(7)

The Placebo Effect

(2)

Spontaneous Remission

(1)

The Disease Ran Its Natural Course

(1)

The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases

(1)

Misdiagnosis

(1)

The ``Worried Well''

(1)

Symptomatic Relief

(1)

Hedged Bets

(1)

Derivative Benefits

(1)

Psychological Distortion of Reality

(1)

The Bottom Line

(1)

Probabilistic General Principles

(3)

Plausibility: All Beliefs Are Not Created Equal

(12)

Magnet Therapy: Claims Versus Reality

(3)

Magnets and Water

(1)

Magnets and the Human Body

(1)

The Strength of ``Therapeutic'' Magnets

(1)

Homeopathy: Empty Promises

(3)

The Law of Similars

(1)

The Law of Infinitesimals

(1)

Evasive Maneuver #1: Lowering the Dilution Factor

(1)

Evasive Maneuver #2: ``Water Memory''

(1)

Alien Abductions: A Modern-Day Misunderstanding

(5)

The Contamination Effect

(2)

Dull Fantasies and Contradictions

(1)

Sleep Paralysis

(2)

Association: Establishing and Interpreting Correlations

(12)

Presuming an Association Through Mere Examples

(1)

Presuming an Association Through a Lone Rate

(1)

Interpreting a Correlation

(4)

Causal Relationships Between Correlated Events

(1)

Three Conditions for Causality

(1)

Examining Patterns Across Multiple Correlations

(2)

Beware the Media

(2)

Do Horoscopes Predict Anything?

(2)

Science: Evaluating Claims to Knowledge

(14)

Scientific Reasoning

(5)

Falsifiability

(1)

Logic

(1)

Comprehensiveness

(1)

Honesty

(1)

Replicability

(1)

Sufficiency

(1)

Antiscientific Beliefs: Postmodernism and Other Fallacious Ideas

(5)

Postmodernism

(3)

The ``What Works Is Different for Everybody'' Fallacy

101

(1)

The ``Probability Is Irrelevant to the Unique Individual'' Fallacy

102

(1)

The Rejection of Science as a Pseudoscientist's Dream

103

(3)

Part Three Psychological Tricks

Risk: Biased Perceptions and the Media Paradox

106

(9)

Vividness

106

(2)

Availability

108

(1)

The Media Paradox

109

(2)

Falling Airplane Parts Revisited

111

(1)

A Radical Conjecture

112

(1)

Mindful Attention to Media Reports

113

(2)

Belief: Confirmation Bias, Post-Hockery, and Overconfidence

115

(14)

Discovery Versus Verification: The Importance of Prediction

116

(4)

The Bible Code

116

(2)

The ``Hot Hand'' in Basketball

118

(2)

Confirmation Bias

120

(5)

The Rorschach Ink Blot Test

121

(1)

Graphology: Handwriting Analysis

122

(1)

Polygraphy: The ``Lie Detector'' Test

122

(3)

Absent or Misleading Feedback

125

(1)

Hindsight Bias and Overconfidence

126

(1)

Foiling Post-Hockery

127

(1)

Answers to the Confidence Quiz

128

(1)

Schemes: The Seductiveness of Grand Conspiracy Theories

129

(11)

The Three Roles in a Conspiracy Theory

129

(2)

Conspirators

129

(1)

Saviors

130

(1)

Dupes

130

(1)

A Grand Conspiracy Theory: ``Area 51''

131

(2)

The Role of the Media

131

(1)

Thinking Clearly About Area 51

132

(1)

Problems Facing Any Grand Conspiracy Theory

133

(1)

The ``Hidden Cure'' Conspiracy

134

(4)

Intense Competition Is Ignored

135

(1)

The Alleged Profit Motive Makes No Sense

135

(1)

Science Is Never Going to Cure All Disease

136

(1)

Monumental Callousness Is Presumed

136

(1)

Why Does the Theory of Hidden Cures Persist?

137

(1)

Challenging Conspiracies

138

(2)

Illusions: The Perception of Control

140

(12)

The Illusion of Control

141

(1)

The Certainty Effect

142

(1)

The Dangers of Illusions of Control

143

(2)

Belief in the ``Just World'' and the Blaming of Victims

143

(1)

Self-Blame

144

(1)

Learned Helplessness

145

(1)

The Downside to Mental Imagery

145

(1)

The ``Choose to Be Healthy'' Fallacy

146

(2)

Prayer and Religion-Motivated Medical Neglect

148

(4)

Part Four Decision Making and Ethics

Assessment: Classical Decision Theory

152

(13)

Mammograms

154

(1)

Classical Decision Theory

155

(1)

The Impact of Low Base Rates

156

(1)

Lie Detection

157

(1)

Two Different Perspectives on Accuracy

158

(1)

The Impact of Selection Ratios

159

(1)

Nutritional Scams

160

(3)

Validity

160

(1)

Base Rates

161

(1)

Selection Ratio

162

(1)

Protecting Against Professional Misconduct

163

(2)

Decisions: Clinical Versus Statistical Approaches

165

(14)

Two Approaches to Decision Making

166

(1)

Why Is the Statistical Approach Superior?

167

(5)

Validity

168

(1)

Units of Measurement

168

(1)

Reliability

169

(1)

Redundancy

170

(1)

Regression Effects

171

(1)

Adherence to the Clinical Approach

172

(4)

Knowledge Deficit

172

(1)

Fear of Computers

172

(1)

Fear of Unemployment

173

(1)

Belief in the Efficacy of One's Judgment

173

(1)

Theoretical Identifications

174

(1)

The ``Dehumanizing'' Feel of Statistical Equations

175

(1)

Mistaken Conception of Ethics

175

(1)

Embracing Statistical Decisions

176

(3)

Pro/Con Lists

176

(1)

Professional Practice

176

(2)

Statistics Do Apply to the Individual

178

(1)

Ethics: The Use and Promotion of Unverified Treatments

179

(13)

Overlooking the Obvious in Favor of the Unlikely

179

(1)

Repressed Memories and Multiple Personalities

180

(6)

Cost-Benefit Ratio

186

(2)

Skewed Projections of Benefit and Harm

186

(1)

The Overlooked Opportunity Costs

187

(1)

Truly Informed Consent and Patient Autonomy

188

(2)

The ``Health Freedom'' Fallacy

190

(2)

Tools: Suggestions for Clear Thinking

192

(11)

The Dangers of a Pseudoscientific Approach to Health Care

194

(1)

Thinking Clearly

195

(6)

Reconceptualize Issues in Multiple Ways

195

(1)

Beware of Wishful Thinking

196

(1)

Consider the Legitimacy of Authorities

196

(1)

Seek Risky Tests, Not Weak Confirmation

196

(1)

Don't Be Misled by Testimonials

196

(1)

Keep in Touch with Reality

197

(1)

Remember That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

197

(1)

Beware the Media Paradox

197

(1)

Formulate Multiple Working Hypotheses

198

(1)

Ask What Can Be Predicted

198

(1)

Challenge Conspiracy Theories

198

(1)

Watch Out for Illusions of Control

198

(1)

Be Careful Not to Blame Victims

199

(1)

Consider Both Positive and Negative Consequences of a Claim

199

(1)

Pay Attention to Base Rates

199

(1)

Accept Some Mistakes in Order to Minimize Error

199

(1)

Take Advantage of the Power of Statistical Decision Making

200

(1)

Don't Misinterpret Regression Toward the Mean

200

(1)

Consider Both Costs and Benefits

200

(1)

Practice Scientific Reasoning

201

(1)

A Closing Thought on Wishful Thinking

201

(2)

References

203

(14)

Index

217

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Clear Thinking with Psychology Separating Sense from Nonsense

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