Climate Change
, by Fletcher, Chip
- ISBN: 9781119575238 | 1119575230
- Cover: Paperback
- Copyright: 11/20/2018
This book introduces climate change fundamentals and essential concepts that reveal the extent of the damage, the impacts felt around the globe, and the innovation and leadership it will take to bring an end to the status quo. Emphasizing peer-reviewed literature, this text details the impact of climate change on land and sea, the water cycle, human communities, the weather, and humanity's collective future. Coverage of greenhouse gases, oceanic and atmospheric processes, Pleistocene and Holocene paleoclimate, sea levels, and other fundamental topics provide a deep understanding of key mechanisms, while discussion of extreme weather, economic impacts, and resource scarcity reveals how climate change is already impacting people's lives - and will continue to do so at an increasing rate for the foreseeable future.
Preface ix
1 Evidence of Climate Change 1
Chapter Summary 1
Introduction 2
The Greenhouse Effect 3
Early Climate Science 3
Climate Change in Every Corner of Our Lives 5
Climate Change is Real and it is Dangerous 6
Box 1.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Ice Ages and Interglacials 7
Earth Resources Are More Depleted Every Day 8
National Academy of Sciences 9
Climate Change Evidence 10
The Earth System is Changing 12
Irreversible Change 12
Observed Impacts 13
U.S. Global Change Research Program 18
Reliable Sources of Climate Change Information 19
Climate Data 20
Media 20
Scientific Peer Review 20
Climate Literacy 21
IPCC Assessments 21
Climate Change Impacts in the United States 22
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 23
Box 1.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: COP21 24
How Unusual is the Present Warming? 25
Unprecedented Warming 25
Surface Temperature 26
Sensors 27
Excess Heat 27
Human Fingerprints on Climate 27
A Consistent Picture Emerges 31
Optimism about Climate Change? 32
Box 1.3 Spotlight on Climate Change: Community Sustainability and Resilience 33
Animations and Videos 35
Comprehension Questions 35
Thinking Critically 36
Activities 36
Key Terms 36
2 Radiative Equilibrium 37
Chapter Summary 37
Earth’s Energy Budget 38
Characteristics of Radiation 38
Sunlight 38
Heat Engine 39
Radiative Equilibrium 40
Energy Entering the Climate System 40
Surface Temperature 41
Natural Greenhouse Effect 42
Surface Energy Budget 43
Atmospheric Energy Budget 44
Radiative Forcing 45
Sunspots 47
Anthropogenic Forcing 49
Global Warming Potential 49
Assigning Radiation Values to Human Behavior 50
Radiative Forcing That Promotes Cooling 52
Greenhouse Gases 53
Water Vapor as a Feedback 53
Clouds 53
Emissions 54
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 54
Methane (CH4) 59
Box 2.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis 61
Tropospheric Ozone (O3) 61
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 62
Fluorinated Gases 62
Water Vapor (H2O) 64
Aerosols 65
Emissions by Country 67
Animations and Videos 67
Climate Change Essay 68
Comprehension Questions 68
Thinking Critically 68
Activities 68
Key Terms 69
3 The Climate System 70
Chapter Summary 70
Weather and Climate 71
The Atmosphere 71
Layers of the Atmosphere 71
General Circulation of the Atmosphere 72
The Coriolis Force 73
The Hadley Cell 73
The Polar Cell and the Farrel Cell 73
How Global Circulation Affects Climate 73
Climate Zones 74
Climate Phenomena 75
Köppen–Trewartha Climate Zones 75
Tropical Climate 75
Dry Climate 77
Subtropical Climate 79
Temperate and Continental Climate 79
Box 3.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Desertification Drives Tides of Humanity 80
Boreal Climate 82
Polar Climate 82
High-Altitude Climate 85
Box 3.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: Arctic Meltdown and Dangerous Weather 85
Jet Stream 88
Jet Meanders and Extreme Weather 88
Ocean Currents Carry Heat 90
Ocean Circulation 90
Surface Currents 91
Deep Circulation 92
Global Warming Is Changing the Ocean 92
Warming Oceans 93
Phytoplankton 94
Declining Oxygen Content 96
Acidifying Oceans 97
Deadly Trio 100
Anoxia 100
Plastic 100
Warming and Acidification 100
Outlook 101
Animations and Videos 102
Ocean Threats 102
Comprehension Questions 102
Thinking Critically 102
Activities 103
Key Terms 103
4 Are Humans the Cause? 104
Chapter Summary 104
Mitigating Global Warming Requires Managing Carbon 105
The Carbon Cycle 105
Geologic Carbon Cycle 106
Biological Carbon Cycle 106
The Carbon Budget 108
The Imbalance of the Carbon Cycle and Its Impact on Climate Change 110
What Temperature Has Carbon Emissions Committed Us To? 111
Box 4.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecast to Continue Growing 112
Paleoclimate 114
Is Global Warming Part of a Natural Climate Cycle? 115
Box 4.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: The Uplift Weathering Hypothesis 116
Climate Proxies 119
Paleoclimate Patterns 121
Orbital Parameters 125
Insolation 125
First Orbital Parameter: Eccentricity 125
Second Orbital Parameter: Obliquity 126
Third Orbital Parameter: Precession 126
Short, Cool Summers 126
The Important Role of Climate Feedbacks 128
Why Warming Preceded CO2 Increase at the End of the Ice Age 128
Rapid Climate Change: The Younger Dryas 129
The Conveyor Belt Hypothesis 129
Slowing of AMOC 130
Hansen et al. 132
Feedback Examples 133
Dansgaard–Oeschger Events 134
Bipolar Seesaw 135
Is Global Warming Caused by the Sun? 136
Did Global Warming End After 1998? 137
Do Scientists Disagree on Global Warming? 140
Are Climate Data Faulty? 141
Is Today’s Warming Simply a Repeat of the Recent Past? 142
Medieval Climate Anomaly 142
Eemian Interglacial 143
In Conclusion 145
Animations and Videos 146
Comprehension Questions 146
Thinking Critically 146
Activities 147
Key Terms 147
5 Sea-Level Rise 148
Chapter Summary 148
Rate of Sea-Level Rise 150
How Can I Keep Track of the Changing Rate of Global Sea-Level Rise? 150
Satellite Altimetry 151
El Niño Southern Oscillation 153
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 155
Tide Gauges 158
Tide Gauge Studies 159
Coastal Sediment Studies 163
Sea-Level Components 164
Ocean Warming 165
Melting Ice 168
Antarctica 169
Greenland 171
Alpine Glaciers and Ice Caps 173
Groundwater 174
Future Commitment to Sea-Level Rise 175
Box 5.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Changes in the Cryosphere 176
Sea-Level Impacts 176
End of the Century 176
Impact Analysis 177
Hawaiian Islands 178
Storm Surge 178
Groundwater Inundation 179
Coastal Erosion 181
Seasonal High Waves 182
Exposed Assets 182
Adapting to Sea-Level Rise 183
SLR Refugees 185
How High? 185
Modeling Issues 186
Consensus 189
The Eemian Analogue and a Warning of Our Future 190
Conclusion 190
Animations and Videos 191
Comprehension Questions 191
Thinking Critically 191
Activities 192
Key Terms 192
6 Modeling Climate 193
Chapter Summary 193
Climate Models 194
General Circulation Models 196
Modeling Concept 198
Parameterization 198
Model Resolution 199
Representing the Climate System 200
Model Ensembles 201
Box 6.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Research Groups that Model Climate 202
Communicating Uncertainty 203
Regional Projections 203
Historical Accuracy; No Guarantee of Future Success 205
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—Assessment Report 5 205
IPCC Working Groups 206
IPCC Findings 206
Existing Impacts 206
Future Impacts 206
Reacting to Climate Change 207
CMIP—The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 208
Coherence with Observed Changes 209
Representative Concentration Pathways— RCPs 210
Projected Climate in AR5 210
Future Global and Regional Climate Change 211
Temperature 211
Water Cycle 211
Air Quality 213
Ocean 213
Cryosphere 213
Sea Level 213
Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 214
Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility 214
Conclusion 215
Box 6.2 Spotlight on Climate Change: Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change 215
Additional Considerations 216
If We Can’t Predict Weather, How Can We Predict Climate? 217
Rapid Warming by Midcentury 218
Variability in the Pacific 218
How Will ENSO Change as the World Warms? 220
How Will Hadley Circulation Change as the World Becomes Warmer? 220
Box 6.3 Spotlight on Climate Change: Record carbon dioxide levels in 2015 221
Aerosols 222
Types of Aerosols 222
Impact of Aerosols on Hadley Circulation 224
Ice–Albedo Feedback 228
Clouds 230
Solar Radiation 233
Concluding Thoughts 234
Animations and Videos 235
Comprehension Questions 236
Thinking Critically 236
Activities 236
Key Terms 237
7 Warming Impacts 238
Chapter Summary 238
Air Temperature and Precipitation Patterns in the United States 239
Air Temperature 240
Extreme Temperatures 241
Projected Temperature 242
Precipitation 242
Extreme Rain 242
Snowfall 242
Projections 243
Climate Impacts to Planning Sectors 243
Water Resources 244
Transportation 247
Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge 247
Rainfall Intensity 248
Extreme Heat 248
Drought 248
Storminess 249
Ecosystems 250
Health 250
Changing Conditions 250
Species Shifts 251
Wildfire 252
Marine Systems 253
Severe Effects 253
Agriculture 253
Impacts on Crops 253
Effects on Farm Animals 254
Society 255
Population Growth 255
Box 7.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Surprises in the Climate System 256
Urban Populations 258
Energy Supply and Use 259
U.S. Emissions 259
Extreme Events 260
Shifting U.S. Populations 261
Human Health 261
Climate Impacts to Geographic Regions 263
Northeast Region 264
Southeast and Caribbean Region 264
Midwest Region 266
Great Plains Region 268
Southwest Region 268
Northwest Region 268
Alaska 270
Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands 271
Coastal Regions 271
Overall 274
Northeast 274
Northwest 274
Southeast 274
Midwest 275
Southwest 275
Conclusion 275
Animations and Video 275
Comprehension Questions 275
Thinking Critically 275
Activities 276
Key Terms 276
8 Dangerous Climate 277
Chapter Summary 277
Extreme Weather 278
Event History 278
2017 280
Attribution 281
Global Warming Attribution 281
Single Event Attribution 282
Extreme Rain 282
U.S. Climate Change Science Program 283
Temperature 284
Analysis of 2016 284
Daily Extremes 285
Probabilities 285
Extending the Record of Extreme Weather 286
Drought 286
Seasonal Patterns 287
Regional Drought 287
Drought Severity 287
Box 8.1 Spotlight on Climate Change: Syria and the Rise of European Demagogues 289
Wildfire 290
Influence of Climate Change 290
Convergence of Factors 291
Positive Feedback 291
Large Fires 291
Megafires 291
Fire Season Cost 292
Human Health 293
Ecosystem Impacts 293
Variety of Impacts 293
Plant Physiology 293
Multiple Stressors 293
Range Shifts 294
Growing Season 294
Extinction 294
Ecological Sensitivity 295
Marine Ecosystems 295
Sea Surface Temperature 295
Anoxia 295
Bleaching 296
Ocean Acidity 297
Climate Sensitivity 299
Estimating Climate Sensitivity 300
AR4 and AR5 300
Paleoclimate 300
Slow Mode Climate Change 300
Reconciling Sensitivity 301
Climate Sensitivity Ranges 302
Best-Fit Models 303
On the Other Hand 304
Carbon Trends and Implications 305
Paris Accord 305
The Carbon Budget 306
1.5 Degree Celsius Very Unlikely 306
Carbon Trends 308
Falling Short 309
Mitigation 310
Human Vulnerability 310
Violence 311
Food Impacts 311
Water Cycle Impacts 311
Dangerous Climate 312
Political Turmoil 312
No More Carbon Dioxide? 313
Global Energy Demand 313
2017, Energy Demand 313
Energy Outlook 314
Aerosols 315
Negative Emissions 315
Recent Studies 315
Earth When It Is 3°C Warmer 316
Sixth Mass Extinction 316
Biogeochemical Crisis 317
Warning to Humanity 317
The Socio-Economic Framework of All Humanity Is at Risk 318
Heat Stress 319
Food 319
Drought, Water Scarcity 320
Sea-Level Rise 322
Out of Control Climate 324
Ominous Signs 325
False Hope 325
Paris 326
Critical Point 326
Animations and Videos 327
Comprehension Questions 327
Thinking Critically 327
Activities 328
Key Terms 328
Key Term Glossary 329
Index 337
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