Climate Change Risks and Food Security in

The climate in Bangladesh is changing and becoming more unpredictable. Whereas there used to be six seasons, now there are only four. As a low-lying delta, Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climate change, whether from ice melt from the Himalayan glaciers or from sea level rises. It is estimated that by 2050 some 70 million people of the population could be affected by floods and 8 million by drought, while coastal districts will become inundated by rising sea levels. As a result, much of the country's agriculture and food security, including wheat and rice crops, will be at risk.The objective of this book is to examine the implications of climate change on food security in Bangladesh and to identify adaptation measures in the agriculture sector. Using climate, hydrologic and economic models, this objective is achieved first by providing an improved characterization of the changes in climate using the most recent climate science available. Secondly, country specific data are used to derive more realistic and accurate agricultural impact functions. Thirdly, this study considers a range of climate risks (i.e. changing characteristics of floods, droughts, and potential sea level rise) to gain a more complete picture of agriculture impacts. Fourthly, while estimating changes in production are important, this is only one dimension of food security and poverty considered here. The authors show that food security is dependent on several socio-economic variables including estimated future food requirements, income levels, and commodity prices.

Winston H. Yu is at the World Bank, Washington, DC, USA; Mozaharul Alam is at the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh; Ahmadul Hassan is at the Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh; Abu Saleh Khan is at the Institute for Water Modeling, Dhaka, Bangladesh; Alex C. Ruane, Cynthia Rosenzweig and David C. Major are at Columbia University, New York, USA; James Thurlow is at the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, USA.

List of Figures and Tables	p. vii
Acknowledgements	p. xi
Foreword	p. xiii
Executive Summary	p. xv
Glossary of Terms	p. xxi
Acronyms	p. xxiii
Introduction	p. 1
Objective of Study	p. 2
Literature Review	p. 2
Integrated Modelling Methodology	p. 3
Organization of Study	p. 4
Vulnerability to Climate Risks	p. 5
The Success of Agriculture	p. 6
Living with Annual Floods	p. 10
Lean Season Water Availability	p. 15
Sea level Rise in Coastal Areas	p. 17
Regional Hydrology Issues	p. 19
Future Climate Scenarios	p. 21
Future Estimated Precipitation and Temperature	p. 22
Future Sea level Rise	p. 26
Future Flood Hydrology	p. 28
GBM Basin Model Development	p. 28
National Hydrologic Super Model	p. 30
Approach to Modelling Future Flood Changes	p. 30
Future Changes over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin	p. 31
Future Flood Characteristics and Analysis	p. 33
Future Crop Performance	p. 41
Development of the Baseline Period	p. 42
Developing Flood Damage Functions	p. 46
Incorporating Coastal Inundation Effects	p. 48
Projections of Future Potential Unflooded Production (Climate Only)	p. 49
Projections of Future Projected Flood Damages	p. 52
Projections of Potential Coastal Inundation Damages	p. 53
Projections of Integrated Damages	p. 53
Using the Crop Model to Simulate Adaptation Options	p. 56
Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Risks	p. 60
Integrating Climate Effects in an Economy-wide Model	p. 61
Economic Impacts of Existing Climate Variability	p. 64
Additional Economic Impacts of Climate Change	p. 72
Adaptation Options in the Agriculture Sector	p. 82
Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Options	p. 83
The Way Forward - Turning Ideas to Action	p. 105
A Framework for Assessing the Economics of Climate Change	p. 107
Using DSSAT to Model Adaptation Impacts	p. 108
Description of the CGE Model	p. 113
Constructing the Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh	p. 119
References	p. 133
Index	p. 139
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Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh

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