A Climate Modelling Primer

, by Mcguffie, Kendal; Henderson-Sellers, Ann

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ISBN: 9780471955580 | 0471955582
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 11/1/1996

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This book explains the basis and mechanisms of all types of physically based climate models. It uses simple examples and analogies to introduce concepts fundamental to climate modeling. The book moves from the climate modeling pyramid to the three-dimensional general circulation climate model. It encourages a discriminating interpretation of the results of climate models and assist readers in comprehending the complexities and applications of the whole range of climate models.

Preface

(2)

Acknowledgements

xiii

CHAPTER 1 Climate

(40)

1.1 The Components of Climate

(6)

Introduction and outline of the book

(2)

The Climate system

(3)

1.2 Climate change assessment

(10)

1.2.1 The scientific perspective

(6)

1.2.2 The human perspective

(3)

1.3 Climate forcings

(14)

1.3.1 External causes of climatic change

(3)

Milankovitch variations

(3)

Solar activity

(1)

Other external factors

(1)

1.3.2 Internal factors: Human-induced changes

(7)

Greenhouse gases

(1)

Tropospheric aerosols and clouds

(1)

Stratospheric ozone

(3)

Land-surface changes

(3)

1.3.3 Internal factors: Natural changes

(4)

Volcanic eruptions

(2)

Ocean circulation changes

(1)

1.4 Climate feedbacks and sensitivity

(8)

1.4.1 The ice-albedo feedback mechanism

(1)

1.4.2 The water-vapour `greenhouse'

(1)

1.4.3 Cloud feedbacks

(1)

1.4.4 Combining feedback effects

(5)

1.5 Range of questions for Climate modelling

(1)

Recommended reading

(1)

CHAPTER 2 A History of and Introduction to Climate Models

(27)

2.1 Introducing Climate modelling

(2)

The need for simplification

(1)

Resolution in time and space

(1)

2.2 Types of climate models

(10)

2.2.1 Energy balance climate models

(1)

2.2.2 One-dimensional radiative--convective climate models

(1)

2.2.3 Two-dimensional Climate models

(1)

2.2.4 General circulation models

(5)

2.2.5 The interactive biosphere

(1)

2.3 History of climate modelling

(3)

2.4 Sensitivity of climate models

(5)

Equilibrium climatic States

(2)

Equilibrium conditions and transitivity of climate systems

(2)

Stability of model results

(1)

2.5 Parameterization of climate processes

(4)

Interactions in the climate system

(3)

The need for observations

(1)

2.6 Simulation of the full, interacting climate System: One goal of modelling

(1)

Recommended reading

(2)

CHAPTER 3 Energy Balance Models

(29)

3.1 Balancing the planetary radiation budget

(1)

3.2 The structure of energy balance models

(5)

3.2.1 Zero-dimensional EBMs

(3)

3.2.2 One-dimensional EBMs

(2)

3.3 Parameterizing the climate System for energy balance models

(2)

Albedo

(1)

Outgoing infrared radiation

(1)

Heat transport

(1)

3.4 A Basic energy balance climate model

(8)

Description of the EBM

(1)

EBM model code

(1)

Energy balance model exercises

(2)

3.5 Energy balance models and glacial cycles

(3)

3.6 Box models -- another form of energy balance model

(7)

3.6.1 A Simple box model of the ocean--atmosphere

(4)

3.6.2 A Coupled atmosphere, land and ocean energy balance box model

(3)

3.7 Energy balance models: Deceptively Simple models

(1)

Recommended reading

(2)

CHAPTER 4 Computationally Efficient Models

(40)

4.1 Why lower complexity?

(1)

4.2 One-dimensional radiative-convective models

(4)

The structure of global radiative-convective models

(2)

4.3 Radiation: The driver of climate

101

(10)

4.3.1 Shortwave radiation

103

(2)

Albedo

105

(1)

Shortwave radiation subject to scattering (Rs)

105

(1)

Shortwave radiation subject to absorption (Ra)

106

(2)

4.3.2 Longwave radiation

108

(2)

4.3.3 Heat balance at the ground

110

(1)

4.4 Convective adjustment

111

(3)

4.5 Sensitivity experiments with radiative-convective models

114

(3)

Sensitivity to humidity

115

(1)

Sensitivity to Clouds

116

(1)

Sensitivity to lapse rate selected for convective adjustment

116

(1)

4.6 Development of radiative--convective models

117

(3)

Cloud prediction

118

(1)

Model sensitivity

119

(1)

Regional and local applications

120

(1)

4.7 Two-dimensional statistical dynamical climate models

120

(8)

4.7.1 Parameterizations for two-dimensional modelling

121

(6)

4.7.2 `Column' processes in two-dimensional statistical dynamical models

127

(1)

4.8 Other types of computationally efficient models

128

(6)

4.8.1 An upgraded energy balance model

128

(1)

4.8.2 Multi-column RC models

129

(3)

4.8.3 A severely truncated spectral general circulation climate model

132

(1)

4.8.4 Repeating sectors in a global `grid' model

133

(1)

4.9 Why are some climate modellers Flatlanders?

134

(1)

Recommended reading

135

(2)

CHAPTER 5 General Circulation Climate Models

137

(43)

5.1 Three-dimensional models of the climate system

137

(1)

5.2 Atmospheric general circulation models

138

(20)

5.2.1 Finite grid formulation of atmospheric models

142

(1)

5.2.2 Spectral formulation of atmospheric models

143

(4)

Representing the atmosphere with waves

143

(2)

Structure of a spectral model

145

(2)

Truncation

147

(1)

5.2.3 Atmospheric GCM components

147

(11)

Radiative transfer

149

(1)

Boundary layer

150

(2)

Cloud prediction

152

(3)

Convection processes

155

(1)

Large-scale rainfall

156

(2)

Land-surface parameterization

158

(1)

Gravity wave drag

158

(1)

5.3 Modelling the ocean circulation

158

(7)

Formulation of three-dimensional ocean models

162

(3)

5.4 Modelling the cryosphere

165

(4)

5.5 Incorporating vegetation

169

(3)

5.6 Coupling models: Towards the AOBGCM

172

(6)

Climate drift

175

(2)

The `cold start' phenomenon

177

(1)

5.7 Using GCMs

178

(1)

Recommended reading

178

(2)

CHAPTER 6 Evaluation and Exploitation of Climate Models

180

(30)

6.1 Evaluation of climate models

180

(11)

6.1.1 Intercomparisons facilitated by technology

181

(1)

6.1.2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)

181

(3)

6.1.3 Radiation and cloud intercomparisons

184

(1)

6.1.4 Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)

185

(3)

6.1.5 Comparing carbon-cycle subcomponents of climate models

188

(2)

6.1.6 Benefits gained from climate model intercomparisons

190

(1)

6.2 Exploitation of climate model predictions

191

(12)

6.2.1 Expert assessment

191

(1)

6.2.2 GCM experiments for specific applications

192

(7)

Tropical deforestation

192

(4)

Mineral deposits

196

(3)

6.2.3 Regional climate prediction

199

(2)

6.2.4 Policy development

201

(2)

6.3 Integrated assessment models

203

(4)

6.4 The future of climate modelling

207

(1)

Recommended reading

208

(2)

APPENDIX A Glossary

210

(11)

APPENDIX B About the CD

221

(2)

General Bibliography

223

(25)

Index

248

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A Climate Modelling Primer

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials