- ISBN: 9780415556620 | 0415556627
- Cover: Hardcover
- Copyright: 4/30/2010
List of figures | p. ix |
List of tables | p. xi |
Preface | p. xii |
Acknowledgements | p. xiv |
Introduction | p. 1 |
The Problem of order: three symbolic cases - Nicolas, Emile and Leila | p. 1 |
From the pursuit of order to the paradigm of complexity | p. 5 |
Three brief points and a note on definitions | p. 7 |
The plan of the book | p. 8 |
From orderly to complexity science | p. 12 |
The paradigm of order | p. 12 |
Spreading ripples of doubt | p. 14 |
Complex systems in the physical world | p. 16 |
Complex systems in the biotic world | p. 18 |
Orderly (modernist) social science and public policy | p. 20 |
Disorderly (post-modernist) social science and public policy | p. 24 |
Complexity and social science | p. 28 |
Complexity and public policy | p. 30 |
Concepts of complexity | p. 36 |
Key concepts of physical complex systems | p. 36 |
Key concepts of biotic complex systems | p. 41 |
Key concepts of conscious complex systems | p. 46 |
Tools of complexity | p. 53 |
Cascade of complexity | p. 53 |
Balance and range of outcomes | p. 55 |
Complexity mapping | p. 57 |
Fitness landscape | p. 60 |
A different point of view: the fitness landscape | p. 61 |
The Stacey diagram | p. 64 |
Stakeholder involvement and soft systems methodology | p. 68 |
Politics | p. 73 |
What would a 'complexity map' of politics look like? | p. 74 |
Complexity and democracy | p. 76 |
What would a complexity theory of democracy look like? | p. 77 |
Fundamental regularities and threats | p. 78 |
Complexity and the 'third way' | p. 80 |
How does complexity differ from and go beyond the third way? | p. 84 |
Complexity, politics and the third sector | p. 85 |
Is the EU compatible with the third sector? | p. 88 |
Using the 'balance and range of outcomes' tool to help the EU promote the third sector | p. 89 |
Conclusion | p. 90 |
Health | p. 92 |
The influence of the paradigm of order on health | p. 92 |
Better health at a fraction of the cost - focusing on the basics | p. 94 |
An efficient national health system: the Cuban case | p. 95 |
Is Cuba's experience unique and what is the magic formula? | p. 96 |
The case of the English national health service | p. 98 |
Complexity and chronic illness: the case of diabetes | p. 103 |
Understanding chronic illness - from order to complexity | p. 104 |
Using a fitness landscape to improve diabetes management | p. 105 |
A different point of view: the fitness landscape | p. 106 |
Bringing it all together | p. 109 |
The international arena | p. 110 |
International relations theory | p. 111 |
European integration theory | p. 112 |
Integrating complexity | p. 113 |
Applying a complexity map to the international arena and European Union | p. 114 |
General implications | p. 116 |
Globalisation, Europeanisation and the curious case of the non-death of Scandinavian exceptionalism | p. 118 |
Implications | p. 120 |
Another example: the predictable proposal for a true capital of Europe | p. 122 |
Using a complexity cascade to visualise the development of the EU, Scandinavia and Brussels | p. 123 |
Conclusion | p. 128 |
Development | p. 129 |
The case for radical change in development practice | p. 130 |
Lopsided view of the way nations evolve | p. 132 |
Why to the successful succeed? Self-organised complexity | p. 133 |
Why do the unsuccessful stagnate? | p. 134 |
A more realistic vision of development | p. 136 |
From x-y to fitness landscape thinking | p. 138 |
Why changing the framework of development is so slow | p. 142 |
Concluding remarks: from hard to soft management | p. 143 |
Planning dreams into nightmares: The Iraq adventure | p. 146 |
The predictability of failure | p. 147 |
Doubts were ignored | p. 149 |
Was it just state incompetence and/or lack or preparation? | p. 151 |
Massive costs and negligible benefits | p. 152 |
The underlying questions | p. 154 |
Where did the complexity come from? | p. 156 |
Three acts of orderly reasonableness, but complexity madness | p. 158 |
Could others have done better? The Stacey diagram | p. 160 |
Exploding the myths of terrorism | p. 164 |
There is a clear and agreed definition of terror, terrorism and terrorist | p. 165 |
September 11 was a tragedy and not a political opportunity | p. 166 |
One can reduce the elements of a complex international system into separate and manageable units | p. 168 |
The 'war on terror' is a global affair | p. 169 |
Global and regional powers are simply reacting to terrorism | p. 169 |
The 'war on terror' is being won | p. 170 |
Current terrorism is a new type of terrorism | p. 172 |
The scale of terrorism has radically increased | p. 173 |
Middle eastern and Islamic terrorism is a new and major threat | p. 173 |
Al-Qaeda is new as well | p. 177 |
Beyond the myths: what does complexity tell us? | p. 178 |
A complexity map of international terrorism and its implications | p. 179 |
Conclusion: Towards a complex and humane public policy for the twenty-first century | p. 183 |
Isn't complexity just a recipe for doing nothing? | p. 183 |
Is there a morality of complexity? | p. 184 |
What can complexity do for the weak? | p. 185 |
Why has complexity been so slow to spill over into the social sciences and public policy? | p. 186 |
Can complexity be inspirational? | p. 187 |
How do we go forward from here? | p. 187 |
And finally ... a couple of playful mental exercises | p. 188 |
Notes | p. 192 |
Bibliography | p. 199 |
Index | p. 211 |
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