Connections Patterns of Discovery

This book uses the primary tools of forecasting and three archetypal patterns of discovery to discern relationships of past scientific developments and synthesize a cohesive and compelling vision for the future. It challenges readers to think of the consequences of extrapolating trends, such as Moore's Law, to either reach real machine intelligence or retrench in the face of physical limitations. From this perspective, the book draws "the big picture" for the Information Revolution's innovations in chips, devices, software, and networks.

H. Peter Alesso is an innovator with twenty years of research experience at LawrenceLivermore National Laboratory (LLNL). As Engineering Group Leader at LLNL, he has leda team of computer scientists and engineers in a wide range of successful software and hardware research projects. He has published several software titles, numerous scientific journaland conference articles, and four books.

Craig F. Smith, PhD, is a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement ofScience and is the Lawrence Livermore Chair Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. His areas of interest include sensors, robotics, and automated systems; information technology applications; and future energy systems. Dr. Smith has coauthoredthree books and has published numerous scientific journal and conference articles on advanced engineering topics.

Foreword	p. ix
Acknowledgments	p. xi
Organization of this Book	p. xiii
Introduction	p. 1
Stories	p. 1
Connecting Information	p. 4
Patterns	p. 5
Patterns of Discovery	p. 5
Forecasting Tools	p. 9
The Big Picture	p. 10
Forecasts	p. 11
Connecting Information	p. 12
The Google Story	p. 13
The Information Revolution	p. 20
Defining Information	p. 21
Looking Good	p. 23
Google Connects Information	p. 25
Patterns of Discovery	p. 27
Forecast for Connecting Information	p. 27
Connecting Circuits	p. 30
Moore's Law Story	p. 31
Edison's Electric Light	p. 32
The Vacuum Tube Diode	p. 33
The First Programmable Computers	p. 35
ENIAC	p. 36
The Transistor	p. 39
How Transistors Work	p. 41
Proof of Principle for the Transistor	p. 42
The Microprocessor	p. 43
How Microprocessors Work	p. 45
Moore's Law	p. 45
Patterns of Discovery	p. 47
Forecast for Connecting Circuits	p. 48
Connecting Chips	p. 53
The Personal Computer Story	p. 55
Vannevar Bush	p. 56
Douglas Engelbart	p. 56
Robert Taylor	p. 59
J. C. R. Licklider	p. 60
Alan Kay	p. 61
Butler Lampson	p. 62
Charles (Chuck) Thacker	p. 63
Personal Computing	p. 65
The Xerox Alto	p. 66
Apple Computer	p. 67
IBM PC	p. 69
Patterns of Discovery	p. 71
Forecast for Connecting Chips	p. 72
Connecting Processes	p. 75
The Software Story	p. 76
John von Neumann	p. 78
Claude Shannon	p. 80
The Evolution of Programming Languages	p. 82
Sir Charles Antony (Tony) Richard Hoare	p. 85
Software as an Industry	p. 87
Software Productivity	p. 88
Fourth Generation Languages	p. 89
Proprietary Versus Open Standards	p. 90
Emergent Fifth Generation Languages (5GLs)	p. 91
Charles Simonyi	p. 92
William H. Gates III	p. 95
Linus Torvalds	p. 99
Patterns of Discovery	p. 100
Forecast for Connecting Processes	p. 100
Connecting Machines	p. 103
The Ethernet Story	p. 104
Xerox PARC and Ethernet	p. 106
Robert Metcalf	p. 107
Patterns of Discovery	p. 111
Forecast for Connecting Machines	p. 111
Connecting Networks	p. 113
The Internet Story	p. 114
Vinton Cerf	p. 117
Transition to the World Wide Web	p. 118
Tim Berners-Lee	p. 120
Patterns of Discovery	p. 126
Forecast for Connecting Networks	p. 126
Connecting Devices	p. 129
The Ubiquitous Computing Story	p. 130
Ubiquitous Computing	p. 132
Mark Weiser	p. 133
Jeff Hawkins	p. 135
Patterns of Discovery	p. 139
Forecast for Connecting Devices	p. 139
Connecting the Web	p. 142
The Ubiquitous Web Story	p. 143
Michael Dertouzos	p. 145
Project Oxygen	p. 146
Perfect Search	p. 148
Tim Berners-Lee and the Semantic Web	p. 150
Patterns of Discovery	p. 153
Forecast for Connecting the Web	p. 153
Connecting Intelligence	p. 155
The Ubiquitous Intelligence Story	p. 156
Kurt Godel	p. 158
Alan Turing	p. 160
Marvin Minsky	p. 165
Ubiquitous Intelligence	p. 167
The Web "Brain"	p. 168
What Is Web Intelligence?	p. 170
Patterns of Discovery	p. 171
Forecast for Connecting Intelligence	p. 171
Connecting Patterns	p. 174
Ray Kurzweil	p. 175
Evolving Complex Intelligence	p. 178
Accelerating Returns and the Singularity	p. 180
The Software of Intelligence	p. 181
Patterns	p. 182
Connecting Patterns	p. 185
Patterns of Discovery	p. 185
Forecast for Connecting Patterns	p. 186
Epilogue	p. 186
Bibliography	p. 187
Glossary	p. 199
Index	p. 205
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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Connections Patterns of Discovery

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