Constitutional Futures Revisited Britain's Constitution to 2020

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ISBN: 9780230220744 | 0230220746
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 11/15/2008

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The UK is going through a period of unprecedented constitutional change. There is much unfinished business, and further changes still to come. Where are these changes taking us? In this book, leading political scientists and lawyers forecast the impact of these changes on the UK's key institutions and the constitution as a whole.

List of Figures	p. x
Preface	p. xii
List of Abbreviations	p. xiv
Notes on Contributors	p. xvi
Introduction: Forecasting Constitutional Futures	p. 1
Introduction	p. 1
The constitution in flux	p. 1
The reform programmes of the parties	p. 3
The unfinished business of constitutional reform	p. 4
The main forecasts made in Constitutional Futures in 1998	p. 6
Forecasting techniques	p. 10
Constitutional scenarios	p. 11
The four constitutional scenarios	p. 16
Dispersed Constitutionalism the most likely future scenario	p. 18
Structure of the book	p. 19
Appendix	p. 19
Future studies and forecasting techniques	p. 19
Notes	p. 25
The Decentralised State
Scotland and Wales: The Evolution of Devolution	p. 29
Introduction	p. 29
The drivers of constitution-making in Scotland and Wales	p. 31
Outcomes	p. 36
Conclusion	p. 42
Notes	p. 42
Tying the UK Together? Intergovernmental Relations and the Financial Constitution of the UK	p. 43
Introduction	p. 43
Starting points	p. 44
Financial arrangements in decentralised states	p. 47
Territorial constitutional futures for the United Kingdom	p. 49
Restructuring the intergovernmental finance system	p. 51
Outcomes	p. 53
Conclusion: Britain's devolved constitutional futures	p. 54
Notes	p. 55
Northern Ireland: Polarisation or Normalisation?	p. 56
Recent trends	p. 56
Drivers of change	p. 58
Constraints on change	p. 62
The matrix	p. 64
The scenarios	p. 67
Comparative evidence	p. 69
Conclusions	p. 71
Notes	p. 72
Answering the English Question	p. 73
What is the English question?	p. 73
Answers to the English Question: The options	p. 74
The future of devolution for or in England	p. 80
Conclusions	p. 88
Notes	p. 89
The Future of Britishness	p. 90
Scenario axes: Identifying the 'steady state' Union	p. 91
Devolution as a modification of 'steady state' Union	p. 93
The end of Britishness: The future as separation	p. 94
The new Britishness: The future as adaptation	p. 99
Conclusion	p. 104
The Central State
The Judiciary	p. 109
Drivers of change	p. 109
Possible future scenarios	p. 114
'Back to the Future': Political constitution and consensual decision-making	p. 116
'Dialogue of the Deaf': Political constitution and unilateral decision-making	p. 117
'A problem shared is a problem halved': Legal constitution and consensual decision-making	p. 118
'Judges on Top': Legal constitution and unilateral decision-making	p. 119
Conclusions: The relative likelihood of the scenarios	p. 122
Whitehall	p. 123
Drivers of change	p. 124
Countervailing drivers	p. 131
Scenarios	p. 132
Not going to happen	p. 137
Conclusion	p. 137
Notes	p. 138
The Future of the Monarchy: The Reign of King Charles III	p. 139
Working assumptions	p. 139
The present position	p. 140
Drivers of change	p. 143
Turning points	p. 150
Scenarios	p. 153
Conclusion	p. 154
Notes	p. 155
New Forms of Accountability
The New Human Rights Culture	p. 159
Introduction	p. 159
Drivers of change	p. 162
The axes of change	p. 170
Possible outcomes	p. 172
Final predictions	p. 175
Notes	p. 176
Downward Slope? FOI and Access to Government Information	p. 178
Introduction	p. 178
Drivers toward greater access to information	p. 180
Drivers toward less access to information	p. 184
Axes	p. 187
Scenarios	p. 191
Conclusion	p. 195
Notes	p. 196
Watchdogs of the Constitution - the Biters Bit?	p. 197
Introductory	p. 197
Issues and trends	p. 199
Drivers of change	p. 202
Scenarios	p. 205
Wider impact	p. 211
Conclusion	p. 212
Notes	p. 214
Media Pressures on Politics	p. 215
Drivers of change	p. 215
Main constraints on change	p. 223
Likely future changes	p. 225
Matrix and four scenarios	p. 226
Conclusions	p. 230
Representation
Majoritarianism under Pressure: The Electoral and Party Systems	p. 233
Introduction	p. 2 33
The gradual decline of the British electoral system	p. 234
Initiating and enacting reform	p. 237
Parliamentary obstacles to electoral reform	p. 238
What electoral system might be chosen?	p. 239
Majoritarian futures?	p. 242
Conclusion	p. 247
Acknowledgements	p. 248
Notes	p. 248
Whither the Parties?	p. 249
Introduction	p. 249
Recent trends	p. 249
Main issues in the next ten years	p. 252
Drivers of change	p. 253
Main constraints on change	p. 256
Four scenarios	p. 256
How plausible are each of these scenarios?	p. 264
Conclusions	p. 265
Notes	p. 266
Parliament: Emasculated or Emancipated?	p. 267
Context	p. 267
Drivers of change	p. 269
Constraints on change	p. 272
Matrix	p. 273
Plausibility of the four scenarios	p. 274
Conclusions	p. 283
Notes	p. 284
Conclusion: Where Will the Westminster Model End up?	p. 285
Introduction	p. 285
Continuing dynamism of constitutional reform	p. 285
More tightly constrained UK executive	p. 287
Further big constitutional changes unlikely	p. 287
Devolution will loosen but not break the bonds of the United Kingdom	p. 289
More assertive Parliament and judiciary	p. 290
Delegation to independent bodies to restore trust in politics	p. 291
Where will the Westminster Model end up?	p. 293
Westminster Unchanged	p. 295
Westminster Devolved	p. 296
Westminster Constitutionalised	p. 296
Westminster Transformed	p. 297
Which scenarios are most likely?	p. 297
How majoritarian will the Westminster Model be in future?	p. 298
Table of Cases	p. 301
Table of Legislation	p. 302
Bibliography	p. 303
Index	p. 326
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Constitutional Futures Revisited Britain's Constitution to 2020

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