Construction Reliability Safety, Variability and Sustainability

Julien Baroth is a professor at the?IUT Laboratoire of Grenoble University in?France.

Denys Breysse is a professor?in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (GCE) at Bordeaux 1 University's Institute of Mechanics and Engineering (I2M) in France.

D. Franck Schoefs is a professor at the Institute for Research in Civil and Mechanical Engineering (GeM)?of Nantes University in France.

Preface xiii
Julien BAROTH, Franck SCHOEFS and Denys BREYSSE

Introduction xvii
Julien BAROTH, Alaa CHATEAUNEUF and Franck SCHOEFS

PART 1. QUALITATIVE METHODS FOR EVALUATING THE RELIABILITY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING STRUCTURES 1

Introduction to Part 1 3

Chapter 1. Methods for System Analysis and Failure Analysis 5
Daniel BOISSIER, Laurent PEYRAS and Aurélie TALON

1.1. Introduction 5

1.2. Structural analysis 7

1.3. Functional analysis 10

1.4. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) 14

1.5. Bibliography 19

Chapter 2. Methods for Modeling Failure Scenarios 21
Daniel BOISSIER, Laurent PEYRAS and Aurélie TALON

2.1. Introduction 21

2.2. Event tree method 22

2.3. Fault tree method 24

2.4. Bow-tie method 26

2.5. Criticality evaluation methods 29

2.6. Bibliography 34

Chapter 3. Application to a Hydraulic Civil Engineering Project 37
Daniel BOISSIER, Laurent PEYRAS and Aurélie TALON

3.1. Context and approach for an operational reliability study 37

3.2. Functional analysis and failure mode analysis 39

3.3. Construction of failure scenarios 42

3.4. Scenario criticality analysis 44

3.5. Application summary 50

3.6. Bibliography 51

PART 2. HETEROGENEITY AND VARIABILITY OF MATERIALS: CONSEQUENCES FOR SAFETY AND RELIABILITY 53

Introduction to Part 2 55

Chapter 4. Uncertainties in Geotechnical Data 57
Denys BREYSSE, Julien BAROTH, Gilles CELEUX, Aurélie TALON and Daniel BOISSIER

4.1. Various sources of uncertainty in geotechnical engineering 57

4.2. Erroneous, censored and sparse data 62

4.3. Statistical representation of data 64

4.4. Data modeling 66

4.5. Conclusion 74

4.6. Bibliography 74

Chapter 5. Some Estimates on the Variability of Material Properties 77
Denys BREYSSE and Antoine MARACHE

5.1. Introduction 77

5.2. Mean value estimation 77

5.3. Estimation of characteristic values 82

5.4. Principles of a geostatistical study 86

5.5. Bibliography 96

Chapter 6. Reliability of a Shallow Foundation Footing 97
Denys BREYSSE

6.1. Introduction 97

6.2. Bearing capacity models for strip foundations – modeling errors 98

6.3. Effects of soil variability on variability in bearing capacity and safety of the foundation 101

6.4. Taking account of the structure of the spatial correlation and its influence on the safety of the foundation 109

6.5. Conclusions 115

6.6. Bibliography 117

PART 3. METAMODELS FOR STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY 119

Introduction to Part 3 121

Chapter 7. Physical and Polynomial Response Surfaces 123
Frédéric DUPRAT, Franck SCHOEFS and Bruno SUDRET

7.1. Introduction 123

7.2. Background to the response surface method 124

7.3. Concept of a response surface 125

7.4. Usual reliability methods 131

7.5. Polynomial response surfaces 133

7.6. Conclusion 143

7.7. Bibliography 143

Chapter 8. Response Surfaces based on Polynomial Chaos Expansions 147
Bruno SUDRET, Géraud BLATMAN and Marc BERVEILLER

8.1. Introduction 147

8.2. Building of a polynomial chaos basis 149

8.3. Computation of the expansion coefficients 151

8.4. Applications in structural reliability 158

8.5. Conclusion 164

8.6. Bibliography 165

PART 4. METHODS FOR STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY OVER TIME 169

Introduction to Part 4 171

Chapter 9. Data Aggregation and Unification 173
Daniel BOISSIER and Aurélie TALON

9.1. Introduction 173

9.2. Methods of data aggregation and unification 173

9.3. Evaluation of evacuation time for an apartment in case of fire 181

9.4. Conclusion 185

9.5. Bibliography 185

Chapter 10. Time-Variant Reliability Problems 187
Bruno SUDRET

10.1. Introduction 187

10.2. Random processes 188

10.3. Time-variant reliability problems 192

10.4. PHI2 method 197

10.5. Industrial application: truss structure under time-varying loads 202

10.6. Conclusion 204

10.7. Bibliography 205

Chapter 11. Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods 207
Gilles CELEUX

11.1. Introduction 207

11.2. Bayesian Inference 208

11.3. MCMC methods for weakly informative data 210

11.4. Estimating a competing risk model from censored and incomplete data 219

11.5. Conclusion 225

11.6. Bibliography 225

Chapter 12. Bayesian Updating Techniques in Structural Reliability 227
Bruno SUDRET

12.1. Introduction 227

12.2. Problem statement: link between measurements and model prediction 228

12.3. Computing and updating the failure probability 229

12.4. Updating a confidence interval on response quantities 233

12.5. Bayesian updating of the model basic variables 235

12.6. Updating the prediction of creep strains in containment vessels of nuclear power plants 238

12.7. Conclusion 245

12.8. Acknowledgments 246

12.9. Bibliography 246

PART 5. RELIABILITY-BASED MAINTENANCE OPTIMIZATION 249

Introduction to Part 5 251

Chapter 13. Maintenance Policies 253
Alaa CHATEAUNEUF, Franck SCHOEFS and Bruno CAPRA

13.1. Maintenance 253

13.2. Types of maintenance 257

13.3. Maintenance models 262

13.4. Conclusion 269

13.5. Bibliography 269

Chapter 14. Maintenance Cost Models 271
Alaa CHATEAUNEUF and Franck SCHOEFS

14.1. Preventive maintenance 271

14.2. Maintenance based on time 273

14.3. Maintenance based on age 275

14.4. Inspection models 276

14.5. Structures with large lifetimes 283

14.6. Criteria for choosing a maintenance policy 284

14.7. Example of a corroded steel pipeline 285

14.8. Conclusion 290

14.9. Bibliography 290

Chapter 15. Practical Aspects: Industrial Implementation and Limitations in a Multi-criteria Context 293
Franck SCHOEFS and Bruno CAPRA

15.1. Introduction 293

15.2. Motorway concession with high performance requirements 296

15.3. Ageing of civil engineering structures: using field data to update predictions 303

15.4. Conclusion 307

15.5. Bibliography 308

Conclusion 311
Julien BAROTH, Franck SCHOEFS and Denys BREYSSE

List of Symbols 315

List of Authors 323

Index 325

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