Decision D. N. A.

Decision DNA is an executives guide for discovering and creating Reality Based Decision-Making. From a historical perspective of decision making, through the organization of the decision-making process

Preface

i

Introduction

vii

Decisions Matter---and They Can Get Better

vii

State of the Art/Science

viii

Ten Reasons You Should Learn More about Decision Making

ix

How to Use This Book: You Decide

xi

Putting Reality Back into Decision Making

1

(22)

Three Tales from the Real World

1

(3)

Getting Real

4

(3)

Act As If Reality Is Real

7

(1)

How to Get Real

8

(2)

The Case of the Missing Reality

10

(3)

The Challenge of Learning Better Decision Making

13

(10)

The History of Decision Making

23

(20)

Caveman Discovered in Corporate Market

23

(2)

The Origins of Buck-Passing

25

(2)

The Birth of Logic

27

(3)

Gurus, Oracles, Monarchs, and Oligarchies

30

(2)

Participatory Decision Making

32

(1)

What You See Depends upon Where You Stand, and What You Look For

33

(1)

What Do You Think This Is---The Middle Ages?

34

(2)

Seeking Enlightenment

36

(1)

The Great Schism

37

(2)

It's All Relative

39

(2)

``The Future Is Crowds''

41

(2)

What Is Decision Making?

43

(18)

What Is a Decision?

44

(3)

The Many Definitions of Decision Making

47

(4)

So What Is Decision Making Anyway?

51

(10)

Dimensions of Decision Making

61

(20)

Decision Making Is Desire for the Future

61

(1)

Decision Making Is Getting to a Goal

62

(1)

Decision Making Is Choosing between Polarities

62

(1)

Decision Making Is Learning

63

(1)

Decision Making Is Retrospection, Revision, and Recursion

64

(3)

Decision Making Is Spotting Patterns

67

(2)

Decision Making Is the Ultimate Management of Knowledge

69

(1)

Decision Making Is Searching for Cause and Effect

70

(1)

Decision Making Is Creativity . . . Sometimes

71

(1)

Decision Making Is Not Always Rational

72

(2)

Decision Making Is Other People, Maybe

74

(3)

The Decision-Making Process and Logic

77

(4)

Decision DNA

81

(60)

``But the Light Is So Much Better Over Here''

87

(2)

More on Frameworks

89

(2)

Frameworks as Heuristics

91

(5)

Frames as Pieces of Culture

96

(1)

Good Frames, Bad Frames

97

(2)

When No Framework Will Set Things Right

99

(1)

Labeling

99

(2)

More Frameworks

101

(1)

Shifts of Reference

102

(1)

Framing Outcomes

103

(1)

Information

104

(1)

Sharing

104

(1)

Presentation of Evidence

105

(3)

Inspecting

108

(1)

Ways of Seeking Ideas

109

(1)

``I'd Rather Not Be Wrong, Thank You''

110

(4)

Do You Know What Industry You Are In?

114

(3)

What Can You Do about Frames?

117

(4)

Frames of Reference

121

(1)

Other Forces

122

(19)

DNA: Human Hardwiring

141

(22)

Help! My Amygdala Is Hijacking My Judgment!

145

(2)

The Limits of Our Data-Processing Abilities

147

(2)

Pattern Recognition Is Tied to Hardwiring

149

(1)

Other Hardwiring Features

150

(4)

Cognitive Biases

154

(1)

Temperament and Style

155

(3)

Destructive Thinking

158

(1)

Social Biases

159

(1)

Innate Intelligence

160

(3)

Decision DNA: Forces That Shape Choices

163

(28)

Group Characteristics

163

(11)

Factors That Promote Successful Group Decision Making

174

(13)

Groupthink

187

(4)

Decision-Making Forces: Facets and Flaws

191

(10)

The Facets and Flaws

192

(4)

How Were These Facets Selected?

196

(5)

Preparation: Getting a Good Enough Reality

201

(46)

Setting the Stage

203

(11)

Agreeing on Agreements

214

(5)

Get a Yardstick

219

(7)

Define the Problem: Ask the Obvious Questions

226

(13)

Gather Information, Collect Knowledge

239

(8)

Process

247

(48)

Know Thyself

247

(2)

Create a ``Good-Enough'' Approximation of Reality

249

(4)

Puncture the Atmosphere, Invite in the Winds

253

(7)

Look for Patterns---but Beware the Obvious Ones!

260

(3)

Being a ``Methodism'' Actor

263

(2)

The Importance of Being a Pattern Spotter

265

(6)

Build Risk and Reward Models

271

(13)

Embrace Feedback on Your Decision

284

(5)

Encourage Interdisciplinary Discussion

289

(1)

``It Must Be Chocolate''

290

(5)

Critical Success Factors

295

(30)

Ascertaining Critical Success Factors

295

(12)

Environmental Concerns

307

(4)

Insights

311

(6)

Logical Limitations

317

(8)

Alternatives and Solutions

325

(26)

Creative Thinking

326

(11)

Select Solutions Rigorously

337

(1)

Set Criteria for Selection of an Alternative

338

(1)

Weigh Merits of Possible Alternatives

339

(1)

The Delphi Process

340

(3)

Time to Choose

343

(6)

Leadership

349

(2)

At Last, the Performance

351

(24)

Imagine Implementation

351

(6)

Some Aids to Imagination

357

(5)

Enroll Competence

362

(3)

Begin Implementation. . . Test Those Hypotheses

365

(3)

Don't Sink. . . Too Much!

368

(2)

Prepare a Contingency Plan

370

(1)

Prepare for New Input and the Next Decision

371

(1)

Hope This Helped

372

(3)

Appendix

375

(12)

The Fundamental Principle of Logic

375

(1)

Validity and Soundness

375

(1)

Cause and Effect

376

(3)

Necessary and Sufficient Conditions

379

(1)

Logical Fallacies

379

(8)

End Notes

387

(26)

Selected Bibliography

413

(24)

Index

437

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Summary

Table of Contents

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Decision D. N. A.

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials

Digital License