Democracy and Development: Political

Is economic development conducive to political democracy? Does democracy foster or hinder material welfare? These two questions are examined by looking at the experiences of 135 countries between 1950 and 1990. Descriptive information, statistical analyses, and historical narratives are interwoven to gain an understanding of the dynamic of political regimes and their impact on economic development. The often surprising findings dispel any notion of a tradeoff between democracy and development. Economic development does not generate democracies, but democracies are much more likely to survive in wealthy societies.

List of Tables and Figures

xi

Acknowledgments

xvii

Introduction

1

(1)

Questions

1

(6)

Methods

7

(3)

Plan

10

(3)

Democracies and Dictatorships

13

(65)

Introduction

13

(1)

Democracy and Dictatorship

14

(4)

Operational Rules: Filling Offices by Contested Elections

18

(5)

``Botswana'' and the Alternation Rule

23

(5)

Summary of Rules

28

(2)

Distinguishing among Democracies and Dictatorships

30

(3)

What We Did Not Include

33

(3)

Stability and Change of Political Regimes

36

(15)

Stability and Change of Political Leadership

51

(3)

Conclusion

54

(24)

Alternative Approaches

55

(4)

Classification of Political Regimes, 1950--1990

59

(10)

Basic Data about Regime Dynamics

69

(8)

The ``Short'' Data Base

77

(1)

Economic Development and Political Regimes

78

(64)

Introduction

78

(1)

Development and Democracy

78

(10)

Regime Dynamics

88

(4)

Level of Economic Development and Regime Dynamics

92

(14)

Economic Growth and Regime Dynamics

106

(11)

Income Inequality

117

(5)

Economic Factors in Context

122

(6)

Democratic Institutions and the Sustainability of Democracy

128

(8)

Conclusion

136

(6)

Dynamic Probit Model

137

(2)

Survival Models

139

(3)

Political Regimes and Economic Growth

142

(45)

Introduction

142

(4)

Political Regimes and Economic Growth

146

(12)

Poor and Wealthy Countries

158

(18)

Miracles and Disasters

176

(2)

Conclusion

178

(9)

Identification, Specification, and Robustness

179

(5)

Estimating the Contribution of Public Investment

184

(3)

Political Instability and Economic Growth

187

(29)

Introduction

187

(2)

Contemporaneous Political Upheavals

189

(4)

Past Instability

193

(7)

Expectations

200

(11)

Conclusion

211

(5)

Estimating the Impact of Expectations on Economic Performance

213

(3)

Political Regimes and Population

216

(63)

Total Income, Population, and Per Capita Income

216

(2)

Political Regimes and Population Growth

218

(15)

Explanations

233

(23)

Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth

256

(8)

Conclusion

264

(5)

Calculating Age Structure

265

(4)

Conclusion

269

(10)

Simulation

278

(1)

Appendix I: Selection Model

279

(12)

Selection as a Problem of Identification

279

(2)

Statistical Models of Selection

281

(4)

Statistical Models of Performance

285

(2)

Estimating Selection-Corrected Models of Performance

287

(4)

Appendix II: Codebook

291

(10)

References

301

(12)

Author Index

313

(3)

Country Index

316

(4)

Subject Index

320

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Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950â€“1990

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