Demographic Dynamics and Development

Introduction. Demographic Dynamics xi
Yves CHARBIT

Chapter 1. The Demographic Transition 1
Maria Eugenia COSIO ZAVALA

1.1. Introduction 1

1.2. Genesis of the demographic transition 2

1.3. World population changes and trends (2019–2100) 4

1.4. The demographic transition in the world 8

1.4.1. The factors which can explain demographic transitions 9

1.4.2. Questions 11

1.5. The demographic transition in Latin America and the Caribbean 13

1.5.1. The modes of accelerated mortality reduction 14

1.5.2. The period of strong population growth 18

1.5.3. New reproductive behavior 18

1.6. Conclusion 21

1.7. References 22

Chapter 2. Demographic Dividend and Dependency Ratios 27
Vincent TURBAT

2.1. Introduction 27

2.2. The dependency ratios, main indicators of the potential of a first demographic dividend 28

2.2.1. The demographic dividend 28

2.2.2. The dependency ratios 30

2.2.3. Data 32

2.2.4. Policies 35

2.3. Sub-Saharan Africa in search of a demographic dividend 38

2.4. Conclusion 43

2.5. References 44

Chapter 3. From the Demographic Dividend to Generational Economics 47
Latif DRAMANI

3.1. Introduction: transition and demographic dividend, generational economics 47

3.2. Data and method for calculating the demographic dividend 50

3.3. Results and discussion 53

3.3.1. Demographic dividend profiles in Africa per region 55

3.3.2. Discussion 59

3.4. Conclusion 60

3.5. Appendix: country and survey year for consumption and income profiles 62

3.6. References 63

Chapter 4. Fertility and Nuptiality 65
Yves CHARBIT

4.1. Introduction: the decline of fertility in the world 65

4.2. The sociodemography of fertility 68

4.2.1. Insularity 69

4.2.2. The decline in infant mortality 70

4.2.3. Religion is not in itself a factor for high fertility 74

4.2.4. Land tenure: land saturation 77

4.2.5. The modernization of behavior 79

4.2.6. The rationality of the large family 81

4.3. The sociodemography of precocious nuptiality 83

4.3.1. The vulnerability of young married women 83

4.3.2. The case of Benin 85

4.4. Conclusion 86

4.5. References 88

Chapter 5. Contraception and Reproductive Rights 91
Aisha DASGUPTA

5.1. Introduction: population and the Sustainable Development Goals 91

5.2. Socially embedded preferences for childbearing 95

5.3. Trends in contraceptive and unmet need for family planning 99

5.4. Reproductive rights, fertility intentions, and socially embedded preferences 107

5.5. The relationship between fertility, contraception and abortion 110

5.6. Conclusion: the role of national policies in Bangladesh and Pakistan 113

5.7. References 115

Chapter 6. Mortality and Health, the Factors Involved in Population Dynamics 121
Maryse GAIMARD

6.1. Introduction 121

6.2. Mortality around the world: deep inequalities 123

6.2.1. The decrease in mortality 124

6.2.2. Current disparities 127

6.2.3. The health of populations: a double burden of disease in developing countries 129

6.3. Children’s and female mortality 135

6.3.1. Infant and child mortality and health: a diversified evolution 135

6.3.2. Maternal mortality: too high in the developing world 138

6.4. Conclusion 142

6.5. References 144

Chapter 7. Dynamics of Migration History in Western Europe 147
Leslie Page MOCH

7.1. Introduction 147

7.2. Migrations in preindustrial times (1650–1750) 149

7.2.1. The character of the age 149

7.2.2. Migration in the preindustrial countryside 150

7.2.3. Migration to the preindustrial city 151

7.3. Migration in the age of early industry (1750–1815) 152

7.3.1. Character of the age 153

7.3.2. Early industry and migration 155

7.3.3. The expansion of circular and chain migration 155

7.3.4. Migration to 18th-century towns and cities 156

7.4. Migration in an age of urbanization and industrialization (1815–1914) 157

7.4.1. The character of the age 159

7.4.2. Changing patterns of circular migration 161

7.4.3. Migration and urbanization (1815–1915) 162

7.4.4. Transoceanic migrations (1815–1914) 163

7.5. European migration in the 20th century 164

7.5.1. The character of the age 165

7.5.2. Wartime and interwar migrations 166

7.5.3. Post-war urbanization and international migration 168

7.6. References 170

Chapter 8. Current International Migrations 175
Serge FELD

8.1. Introduction 175

8.2. Migration flows and migration stocks 177

8.2.1. Review of the last 25 years 177

8.2.2. Origins and destinations of major migration flows 180

8.2.3. The major migratory corridors 182

8.2.4. Migration trends and the Covid-19 virus 183

8.3. Emigration of HQ workforce from developing countries 184

8.3.1. Recent trends 185

8.3.2. The main countries of origin 188

8.3.3. The emigration rate of the HQ workforce: a relevant indicator for measuring brain drain 190

8.4. Theoretical perspectives 193

8.4.1. Brain drain or brain gain? 194

8.4.2. The new economics of labor migrations and the brain drain 195

8.5. Conclusion: HQ emigration, a growth engine for human capital? 197

8.6. References 199

Chapter 9. Aging 201
Frédéric SANDRON

9.1. Introduction 201

9.2. The aging of the world population: a demographic revolution 202

9.2.1. The demographic dynamics of aging 202

9.2.2. The causes of aging 207

9.2.3. Main consequences and implications 209

9.3. A strong heterogeneity in aging and its consequences 213

9.3.1. Aging by region 214

9.3.2. Diversified social and economic issues depending on the country 218

9.4. Responding to population aging: three case studies 221

9.4.1. The health system in the face of aging in Cuba 222

9.4.2. The “Age-Friendly Cities” program, with a focus on southern countries 223

9.4.3. Living conditions of the elderly in rural sub-Saharan Africa 225

9.5. Conclusion 227

9.6. References 228

Conclusion: Complex Relationships Between Demographic Dynamics and Development 235
Yves CHARBIT

List of Authors 243

Index 245

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