Demography Measuring and Modeling Population

This book presents and develops the basic methods and models that are used by demographers to study the behaviour of human populations. The procedures are clearly and concisely developed from first principles and extensive applications are presented.

Samuel H. Preston is Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography and Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written monographs on mortality patterns, world urbanization, the history of child health, and other subjects. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Philosophical Society.

Patrick Heuveline is Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. His recent work applies demographic analysis to such diverse topics as the Cambodian genocide and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Michel Guillot is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, where his research focuses on formal demography and mortality in developing countries. He has a Ph.D. in Demography and Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania.

List of Boxes

viii

List of Tables

x

List of Figures

xii

Preface

xiv

Acknowledgments

xv

Basic Concepts and Measures

1

(20)

Meaning of ``Population''

1

(1)

The Balancing Equation of Population Change

2

(1)

The Structure of Demographic Rates

3

(2)

Period Rates and Person-years

5

(2)

Principal Period Rates in Demography

7

(1)

Growth Rates in Demography

8

(7)

Estimating Period Person-years

15

(1)

The Concept of a Cohort

16

(2)

Probabilities of Occurrence of Events

18

(3)

Age-specific Rates and Probabilities

21

(17)

Period Age-specific Rates

21

(3)

Age-standardization

24

(4)

Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions

28

(3)

The Lexis Diagram

31

(1)

Age-specific Probabilities

32

(3)

Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year

35

(3)

The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes

38

(33)

Period Life Tables

42

(2)

Strategies for Choosing a Set of nax Values and/or for Making the nmx → nqx Conversion

44

(3)

The Very Young Ages

47

(1)

The Open-ended Age Interval

48

(1)

Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction

48

(3)

Interpreting the Life Table

51

(2)

The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population

53

(6)

Mortality as a Continuous Process

59

(2)

Life Table Construction Revisited

61

(3)

Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies

64

(1)

Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes

65

(6)

Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation

69

(2)

Multiple Decrement Processes

71

(21)

Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort

71

(2)

Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods

73

(5)

Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes

78

(2)

Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period Data

80

(4)

Cause-specific Decomposition of Differences in Life Expectancies

84

(2)

Associated Single Decrement Tables from Current Status Data

86

(3)

Stationary Populations with Multiple Sources of Decrement

89

(3)

Fertility and Reproduction

92

(25)

Period Fertility Rates

93

(6)

Decomposition of Period Fertility

99

(2)

Cohort Fertility

101

(5)

Birth Interval Analysis

106

(7)

Reproduction Measures

113

(4)

Population Projection

117

(21)

Projections and Forecasts

117

(1)

Population Projection Methodology

118

(1)

The Cohort Component Method

119

(10)

Projections in Matrix Notation

129

(2)

Population Forecasts

131

(2)

The USBOC Projection of the US Population

133

(1)

Alternative Forecasting Methods

134

(1)

Accuracy and Uncertainty

135

(1)

Other Uses of Population Projections

136

(2)

The Stable Population Model

138

(33)

A Simplified Example of a Stable Population

138

(3)

Lotka's Demonstration of Conditions Producing a Stable Population

141

(3)

The Equations Characterizing a Stable Population

144

(3)

The ``Stable Equivalent'' Population

147

(3)

The Relation between the Intrinsic Growth Rate and the Net Reproduction Rate

150

(5)

The Effects of Changes in Fertility and Mortality on Age Structure, Growth Rates, Birth Rates, and Death Rates

155

(6)

The Momentum of Population Growth

161

(6)

Uses of the Stable Population Model in Demographic Estimation

167

(4)

Demographic Relations in Nonstable Populations

171

(20)

An Illustration

171

(1)

Relations in Continuous Age and Time

172

(4)

Extensions of the Basic Relations

176

(4)

Deconstructing the Age-specific Growth Rate

180

(2)

Age Structural Dynamics

182

(2)

Uses of Variable-r Methods in Demographic Estimation

184

(7)

Modeling Age Patterns of Vital Events

191

(20)

Model Age Patterns of Mortality

192

(9)

Age Patterns of Nuptiality

201

(3)

Age Patterns of Fertility

204

(4)

Model Age Patterns of Migration

208

(3)

Methods for Evaluating Data Quality

211

(13)

Statistical Methods for Identifying Coverage Errors

212

(2)

Statistical Methods for Evaluating Content Errors

214

(1)

Demographic Methods of Assessing Data Quality

215

(9)

Indirect Estimation Methods

224

(32)

Estimation of Child Mortality from Information on Child Survivorship: The Brass Method

224

(9)

Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Information on Orphanhood

233

(8)

The Sisterhood Method for Estimating Maternal Mortality

241

(2)

Estimating Mortality and Fertility from Maternity Histories

243

(3)

Indirect Estimation Methods Using Age Distribution at Two Censuses

246

(10)

Increment-Decrement Life Tables (Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin)

256

(17)

Introduction

256

(1)

Increment-Decrement Life Tables

257

(2)

Estimation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables

259

(7)

Formalization and Generalization of Relations

266

(4)

The Simplest Case: A Two-state System

270

(1)

Alternative Solutions: The Case of Constant Rates

271

(1)

Programs for the Calculation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables

271

(2)

References

273

(12)

Index

285

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Demography Measuring and Modeling Population Processes

Summary

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Table of Contents

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Demography Measuring and Modeling Population Processes

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

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