Economic Forecasting and Policy

Economic Forecastingprovides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

NICOLAS CARNOT is Deputy Director for Social and Employment Policies in the French Treasury. He has held several positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the IMF, where he has been involved in macroeconomic forecasting and economic policy advice.  
 
VINCENT KOEN is a Senior Official in the OECD Economics Department and was long one of the main authors of its Economic Outlook. He has also held positions at the IMF and the French Central Bank. He authored a textbook on capital markets and numerous economic articles and holds a PhD from MIT. 
 
BRUNO TISSOT is Adviser to the General Manager of the BIS, where he previously was the Secretary of the Markets Committee of Central Banks. Before joining the BIS, he ran the International Economic Synthesis Division at the French Ministry of Finance. With Nicolas Carnot, he co-authored La Prévision Économique (published by Economica), which in 2003 received a prize for best economics book from the French Moral and Political Sciences Academy.

Introduction
Overview 
Business Cycle Analysis 
Real Sector Building Blocks 
Financial Sector Dynamics 
Public Finances 
Medium and Long-Run Projections 
Risks and Accuracy 
Policymaking and Forecasts
Appendix: A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions
Annex I: The Data
Annex II: Time Series Methods
Annex III: Macroeconomic Models
Bibliography
Index