Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace

To what extent do cyberspace operations increase the risks of escalation between nation-state rivals? Scholars and practitioners have been concerned about cyber escalation for decades, but the question remains hotly debated. The issue is increasingly important for international politics as more states develop and employ offensive cyber capabilities, and as the international system is increasingly characterized by emergent multipolarity.

In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica D. Lonergan and Shawn W. Lonergan tackle this question head-on, presenting a comprehensive theory that explains the conditions under which cyber operations may lead to escalation. In doing so, they challenge long-held assumptions about strategic interactions in cyberspace, arguing that cyberspace is not as dangerous as the conventional wisdom might suggest. In some cases, cyber operations could even facilitate the de-escalation of international crises. To support their claims, Lonergan and Lonergan test their theory against a range of in-depth case studies, including strategic interactions between the United States and key rivals; a series of case studies of the role of cyber operations in international crises; and plausible future scenarios involving cyber operations during conflict. They then apply their analytical insights to policymaking, making the case that skepticism is warranted about the overall efficacy of employing cyber power for strategic ends. By exploring the role of cyber operations in routine competition, crises, and warfighting, Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace presents nuanced insights about how cyberspace affects international politics.

Erica D. Lonergan is Assistant Professor in the Army Cyber Institute at the United States Military Academy at West Point. She is also an Adjunct Research Scholar in the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Prior to that, she held positions as a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Atlantic Council. Previously, Erica served as a Senior Director on the U.S. Cyberspace Solarium Commission and held an appointment as a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow, with placement at JPMorgan Chase and US Cyber Command. She also served as an Assistant Professor and Executive Director of the Rupert H. Johnson Grand Strategy Program in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point. Erica received her PhD in Political Science from Columbia University.

Shawn W. Lonergan is a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army Reserve 75th Innovation Command. Prior to joining the Reserves, Shawn was an active-duty cyber officer and played key roles in the National Security Agency (NSA) in the office of Tailored Access Operations; the United States Cyber Command in the Cyber National Mission Force; and the United States Military Academy at West Point, where he taught courses on cyber operations. Shawn is also the former head of the Department of Defense pilot program to protect critical infrastructure from systemic cyber attacks. Shawn is a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point and holds two Masters' degrees and a PhD in Political Science from Columbia University. Shawn most recently served as a Senior Advisor to the US Cyberspace Solarium Commission.