Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track

Based on the 2024 Monetary Policy Conference held at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track reviews recent global inflation, asking how central banks could have better responded and how they can improve their forecasting and policy strategies to avoid inflationary bursts in the future. Discussions delve into the interactions of fiscal and monetary policies, digital currency, and how the European Central Bank has become more dovish, preferring to keep interest rates low.

The publication shares the presentations from economic experts around the globe, who contribute analysis of monetary policy and strategy from Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, in large economies and in emerging markets. It also reproduces the lively and informative discussions at the conference.

Essays on financial regulation examine asset value and equity levels in the US banking system, Treasury market turmoil, Federal Reserve independence, the 2023 UK pension fund meltdown, and regulatory expansion.

Additional topics include labor market responses to the surge in remote work; how Israel handled financial shocks following the 2023 Hamas attack; and continued fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic: the supply, fiscal, and relative demand shocks of the pandemic and how central banks handled postpandemic inflation.

Michael D. Bordo is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and a Board of Governors Professor of Economics at Rutgers University, where he directs the Center for Monetary and Financial History.

John B. Taylor is the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, where he directs the Introductory Economics Center.

John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an adjunct scholar of the Cato Institute.

Preface
Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and John B. Taylor

Welcoming Remarks
Condoleezza Rice

1. Introduction: Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track
John B. Taylor

Europe

Introductory Remarks: Michael D. Bordo

2. After Four Crises, the Euro Needs Clearer Boundaries between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
John H. Cochrane and Luis Garicano

3. The Digital Euro
Markus K. Brunnermeier

4. Monetary Policy in Europe: Out of the Woods?
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

5. Monetary Policy in a Sustainable Union
Luigi Bocola

General Discussion

Global and Emerging Markets

Introductory Remarks: Peter Blair Henry

6. Dollarization as an Effective Commitment Device with Time-Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie: The Case of Argentina
Emilio Ocampo

7. Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track: The Case of Latin America
Tobías Martínez Gonzáles and Juan Pablo Nicolini

8. China’s Monetary Policy: Where Are We Now?
Zhiguo He and Wei Wei

9. Central Bank Independence in Emerging Economies: Recent Successes and Future Challenges
Ross Levine

General Discussion

Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy

Introductory Remarks: Stephen Haber

10. Too Many Rules and Too Much Discretion? Simplifying Financial Regulation
Amit Seru

11. Liquidity Rules Have Increased the Minimum Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Darrell Duffie

12. Can Fed Supervision Be “Independent” under US Law?
Christina Parajon Skinner

13. Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Lessons from the UK’s LDI Crisis
Carolyn A. Wilkins

General Discussion

Lane Drifting

Introductory Remarks: John B. Taylor

14. Lane Drifting: Remarks at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference
Hester M. Peirce

Employment Dynamics, Labor Markets, the Phillips Curve, and Inflation

Introductory Remarks: Valerie Ramey

15. Extraordinary Labor Market Developments and the 2022?23 Disinflation
Steven J. Davis

16. Employment and Inflation Dynamics in the Monetary Policy Armamentarium
Marianna Kudlyak

General Discussion

The Next Strategy Reviews

Introductory Remarks: John H. Cochrane

17. Enhancing Resilience with Monetary Policy Rules
Athanasios Orphanides

18. The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot
Mickey D. Levy and Charles I. Plosser

19. Thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s Policy and Framework
Jón Steinsson

20. Reflections on Central Bank Communication
Christopher Ong, Andrew Sacher, and Lawrence H. Summers

General Discussion

Policy Panel

Introductory Remarks: John B. Taylor

21. Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies
Amir Yaron

22. Central Bank Communications Beyond “How Many?”
Austan D. Goolsbee

23. Connecting Theory and Practice
John C. Williams

General Discussion

Milton Friedman and the Second Wave of the Great Inflation

Introductory Remarks: John B. Taylor

24. Milton Friedman and the Second Wave of the Great Inflation, 1976–1980
Edward Nelson

General Discussion

About the Contributors

About the Hoover Institution’s Economic Policy Working Group

Index

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