The Hidden Half The Unseen Forces that Influence Everything

Why does one smoker die of lung cancer but another live to 100? The answer is "The Hidden Half"—those random, unknowable variables that mess up our attempts to comprehend the world. We humans are very clever creatures—but we're idiots about how clever we really are. This entertaining and ingenious book reveals how in our quest to make the world more understandable, we lose sight of how unexplainable it often is. The result—from GDP figures to medicine—is that experts know a lot less than they think. Filled with compelling stories from economics, genetics, business, and science, The Hidden Half is a warning that an explanation which works in one arena may not work in another. Entertaining and provocative, it will change how you view the world.

Michael Blastland is a writer and broadcaster. He is the author of The Numbers Game: The Commonsense Guide to Understanding Numbers in the News, in Politics, and in Life, and the coauthor of The Norm Chronicles.

Contents
Prologue
The marmorkrebs and the hidden half 1
1. Bill is not Ben
Hidden influences on the path through life 22
2. I am not constant
Unsuspected causes of belief and choice 60
3. Here is not there, now is not then
Obscure differences that subvert knowledge 78
4. One path is not enough
What ‘finding out’ through research doesn’t see 113
5. The principle isn’t practical
Big ideas and the small print 143
6. Big is not small
The hidden limits of what’s probable 163
7. Big is not clear
Hidden complexity in simple stories 187
8. The ignorant chicken
On ignoring the hidden half 205
9. What to do 228
Postscript
Why the hidden half? 250
Acknowledgements 253
Endnotes 255
Index 283