How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve—and How to Get Back

Michael D. Bordo is a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution; and a Board of Governors Professor of Economics and director of the Center for Monetary and Financial History at Rutgers University.

John B. Taylor is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics and director of the Introductory Economics Center at Stanford University.

John H. Cochrane is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an adjunct scholar of the Cato Institute.

Preface: Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and John B. Taylor 1. Introductory Remarks: Condoleezza Rice What Monetary Policy Rules and Strategies Say 2. Perspectives on US Monetary Policy: Richard H. Clarida 3. A Labor Market View on Inflation: Lawrence H. Summers 4. It’ s Time to Get Back to Rules-Based Monetary Policy: John B. Taylor Introductory Remarks: Tom Stephenson General Discussion: Robert Hall, Terry Anderson, Krishna Guha, Ellen Meade Fiscal Policy and Other Explanations 5. Inflation Past, Present, and Future: Fiscal Shocks, Fed Response, and Fiscal Limits: John H. Cochrane 6. How Monetary Policy Got So Far behind the Curve: The Role of Fiscal Policy: Tyler Goodspeed 7. Current Market Perspectives: Beth Hammack Introductory Remarks: Charles I. Plosser General Discussion: Krishna Guha, Mickey D. Levy, James Bullard, Richard H. Clarida, Markos Kounalakis The Fed’ s Delayed Exits from Monetary Ease 8. The Fed’ s Monetary Policy Exit Once Again behind the Curve: Michael D. Bordo and Mickey D. Levy Discussant Remarks: Jennifer Burns Introductory Remarks: Kevin Warsh General Discussion: Ricardo Reis, Richard H. Clarida, James Bullard Inflation Risks 9. The Burst of High Inflation in 2021– 22: How and Why Did We Get Here?: Ricardo Reis Discussant Remarks: Volker Wieland Introductory Remarks: Arvind Krishnamurthy General Discussion: Robert Hall, James Bullard, Patrick Kehoe, Marc Katz, Elena Pastorino World Wars: Fiscal-Monetary Consequences 10. Financing Big US Federal Expenditures Surges: COVID-19 and Earlier US Wars: George J. Hall and Thomas J. Sargent Discussant Remarks: Ellen R. McGrattan Introductory Remarks: John Lipsky General Discussion: James Bullard, Krishna Guha, Michael D. Bordo, William Nelson, Robert Hall, John H. Cochrane, Patrick Kehoe Toward a Monetary Policy Strategy 11. Is the Fed “ Behind the Curve” ? Two Interpretations: James Bullard 12. Strategy and Execution in US Monetary Policy 2021– 22: Randal Quarles 13. Reflections on Monetary Policy in 2021: Christopher J. Waller Introductory Remarks: Joshua Rauh General Discussion: David H. Papell, Mickey D. Levy, Tyler Goodspeed, John Gunn, John H. Cochrane, Nick Timiraos, Andrew Levin, William Nelson 14. Inflation Blues: The Fortieth-Anniversary Revival? Monika Piazzesi General Discussion: James Bullard, Krishna Guha, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Axel Merk, David H. Papell About the Contributors About the Hoover Institution’ s Working Group on Economic Policy Index