Human Demography and Disease

Note: Supplemental materials are not guaranteed with Rental or Used book purchases.

ISBN: 9780521017695 | 0521017696
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 7/21/2005

Rent

(Recommended)

$33.73

Term

Due

Price

Semester

Dec 13

$37.48

Quarter

Sep 14

$35.61

Short Term

Aug 16

$33.73

*This item is part of an exclusive publisher rental program and requires an additional convenience fee. This fee will be reflected in the shopping cart.
Buy New

Special Order: 1-2 Weeks

$51.21

Human Demography and Disease offers an interdisciplinary and integrated perspective on the relationship between historical populations and the dynamics of epidemiological processes. It brings the techniques of time-series analysis and computer matrix modelling to historical demography and geography to extract detailed information concerning the oscillations in births, deaths, migrations and epidemics from parish registers and other data series and to build mathematical models of the population cycles. This book presents a new way of studying pre-industrial communities and explores the subtle, and hitherto undetected effects of fluctuating nutritional levels on mortality patterns and the dynamics of infectious diseases. It will be of interest to researchers, teachers and students in the fields of demography, anthropology, historical geography, social history, population biology and epidemiology.

Preface

Conversion table for imperial to metric units

xvi

1 Introduction

(15)

1.1 Mortality and demographic theory

(2)

1.2 Malnutrition and famine

(3)

1.3 Lethal infectious diseases

(2)

1.4 Readership

(6)

2 Tools for demography and epidemiology

(18)

2.1 Parish registers – a valuable data base for theoretical population study

(2)

2.2 Time-series analysis – a valuable tool for historical demography

(13)

2.3 Matrix modelling of human populations

(3)

3 Identification of population oscillations: a case study

(21)

3.1 Marginal farming conditions in northwest England

(4)

3.2 Annual burials in the parish register series of Penrith, 1557-1812

(1)

3.3 Annual baptisms in the parish register series of Penrith, 1557-1812

(4)

3.4 Cross-correlations between the burial and baptism series

(1)

3.5 Endogenous versus exogenous oscillations

(3)

3.6 Anatomy of a mortality crisis: the plague at Penrith

(2)

3.7 The births loop at Penrith during the period 1557-1750

(2)

3.8 Are endogenous oscillations detectable in other communities?

(2)

3.9 Conclusions

(2)

4 Density-dependent control and feedback

(20)

4.1 Use of a Leslie matrix to model the endogenous oscillations

(3)

4.2 The 30-year cycle in baptisms

(2)

4.3 Feedback: model no. 2

(4)

4.4 Homeostasis and density-dependent constraints in a single human population

(1)

4.5 Use of the family reconstitution study to validate the model

(5)

4.6 The role of migration

(2)

4.7 A migratory feedback vector for the matrix model

(3)

4.8 Conclusions

(1)

5 Modelling the endogenous oscillations and predictions from time-series analysis

(12)

5.1 30-year cycles

(1)

5.2 Estimations of the fertility function

(3)

5.3 Mean age at marriage

(1)

5.4 Estimations of the mortality function of a population by time-series analysis

(2)

5.5 Why is the wavelength of endogenous oscillations approximately 43 years?

(4)

6 Cycles in the grain price series

(26)

6.1 Sources for the data series

(1)

6.2 Cycles in the wheat price index

(2)

6.3 Oats and barley price indices

(2)

6.4 Correspondence between the grain price indices

(3)

6.5 The effect of seasonal temperature on wheat prices

(4)

6.6 The effect of rainfall on wheat prices

101

(1)

6.7 Wheat prices and short wavelength temperature cycles

102

(1)

6.8 Use of a predicted wheat prices series: distinction between the medium and short wavelength oscillations in the wheat price series

103

(1)

6.9 What drove the different cycles in wheat prices?

104

(2)

6.10 Rust and other parasitic infestations of grain crops

106

(3)

6.11 Conclusions

109

(1)

6.12 Appendix: Statistical considerations

110

(3)

7 Interactions of exogenous cycles: a case study

113

(32)

7.1 Introduction

113

(1)

7.2 Driving the short wavelength population oscillations at Penrith

114

(1)

7.3 Short wavelength mortality oscillations in the population dynamics

115

(5)

7.4 Infant mortality at Penrith

120

(5)

7.5 How does malnutrition affect child and infant mortality?

125

(2)

7.6 Analysis of neonatal and post-neonatal mortality in the crisis of 1623 at Penrith

127

(2)

7.7 Conclusions: the effects of malnutrition on infant mortality

129

(2)

7.8 The short wavelength oscillation in baptisms at Penrith

131

(1)

7.9 Short wavelength oscillation in immigration at Penrith

131

(1)

7.10 Medium wavelength oscillations in adult burials at Penrith

132

(1)

7.11 Medium wavelength oscillations in migration at Penrith

132

(1)

7.12 Interactions between the different oscillations: an overview

132

(5)

7.13 Variation in the interaction of exogenous cycles in different cohorts

137

(3)

7.14 Summary of exogenous cycles at Penrith

140

(2)

7.15 Appendix: Stationarity of the Penrith data series

142

(3)

8 Mortality crises and the effects of the price of wool

145

(24)

8.1 Mortality crises in northwestern England

145

(1)

8.2 Other economic factors affecting the population dynamics

146

(1)

8.3 The effect of wool prices on the mortality cycles at Penrith, 1587-1643

147

(4)

8.4 Computation of a 'hardship index'

151

(2)

8.5 Did wheat prices drive wool prices during the period before 1650?

153

(2)

8.6 Effects of wool prices on the economy and demography of Penrith after 1650

155

(2)

8.7 The mortality crisis of 1623 in northwestern England

157

(4)

8.8 Wheat versus wool: factors determining mortality in six northwestern parishes, 1587-1643

161

(2)

8.9 Interaction of the economic factors that affect the population dynamics at Lancaster, 1600-1785

163

(2)

8.10 Paradoxical effect of wool prices on infant mortality at York

165

(4)

9 Modelling epidemics for the demographer: the dynamics of smallpox in London

169

(20)

9.1 Smallpox mortality in London, 1650-1900

171

(2)

9.2 Modelling the smallpox epidemics

173

(2)

9.3 Theory of the dynamics of infectious diseases

175

(2)

9.4 Conclusions from the linearised model of infectious diseases

177

(3)

9.5 Changes in the interepidemic interval

180

(1)

9.6 Driving the epidemics, 1647-1800

181

(2)

9.7 The effects of vaccination (cohorts IV and V)

183

(1)

9.8 Change to SEIR dynamics in cohorts V and VI

184

(1)

9.9 Age of catching smallpox

184

(1)

9.10 Is there an underlying 5-year oscillation in smallpox epidemics?

185

(1)

9.11 Long wavelength oscillations in smallpox mortality

186

(2)

9.12 Conclusions

188

(1)

10 Non-linear modelling of the 2-yearly epidemics of smallpox: the genesis of chaos?

189

(33)

10.1 Deaths in smallpox epidemics in Scotland

189

(1)

10.2 Smallpox epidemics at Chester

190

(5)

10.3 Drivers for the smallpox epidemics at Chester

195

(2)

10.4 Smallpox at York

197

(4)

10.5 Linear versus non-linear models of the 2-yearly smallpox epidemics

201

(4)

10.6 Conclusions from the non-linear model

205

(2)

10.7 Can white noise pump up the smallpox epidemics?

207

(1)

10.8 Examples of modelling the London smallpox epidemics: can the system be driven by an oscillation in δβ that is not at the resonant frequency?

208

(3)

10.9 The response of the non-linear model to a progressive increase in δβ

211

(3)

10.10 Chaos and epidemics of infectious diseases

214

(2)

10.11 Chaos and the modelling of smallpox epidemics

216

(1)

10.12 Do the theoretical models of chaos in epidemic systems have any basis in reality?

217

(1)

10.13 Theoretical considerations of the effects of population size and density

218

(1)

10.14 Comparison of the linearised and non-linear models of infectious diseases

219

(3)

11 Measles and whooping cough in London

222

(22)

11.1 Measles epidemics in London, 1630-1837

222

(2)

11.2 Annual measles deaths in London

224

(1)

11.3 The interepidemic interval

225

(1)

11.4 Effects of population size and density on the biology of the measles epidemics

225

(3)

11.5 Were the measles epidemics driven?

228

(1)

11.6 Effects of malnutrition during pregnancy on measles epidemics

229

(2)

11.7 Whooping cough epidemics in London

231

(1)

11.8 Annual whooping cough death series in London, 1701-1812

231

(2)

11.9 Periodicity of whooping cough epidemics

233

(1)

11.10 Driving the epidemics

234

(2)

11.11 Dynamics of whooping cough epidemics after 1785

236

(2)

11.12 Conclusions: whooping cough in underdeveloped countries today

238

(1)

11.13 Demographic analysis of the interacting effects of three lethal infectious diseases

238

(6)

12 Integration of the dynamics of infectious diseases with the demography of London

244

(26)

12.1 Incorporation of the death rate from the disease into the mathematical model

245

(3)

12.2 Criteria to be satisfied by the model

248

(1)

12.3 Modelling the London smallpox mortality in 1750-1780

248

(4)

12.4 Modelling smallpox mortality in London during cohort II (1710-1740)

252

(2)

12.5 The effect of changing the variables on the response of the model

254

(9)

12.6 Modelling the measles epidemics in London

263

(1)

12.7 Theoretical considerations of the effect of vaccination

264

(3)

12.8 Conclusions: interacting effects of nutrition on the detailed epidemiology of infectious diseases

267

(3)

13 Smallpox in rural towns in England in the 17th and 18th centuries

270

(33)

13.1 Smallpox epidemics in a rural town

271

(1)

13.2 What drives the smallpox epidemics at Penrith?

272

(3)

13.3 Dominant effect of the size of the pool of susceptibles

275

(1)

13.4 Did infants have a natural immunity to smallpox?

276

(1)

13.5 Non-linear modelling of the smallpox epidemics in rural towns

276

(4)

13.6 Could a noisy input drive the epidemics in rural towns?

280

(1)

13.7 Case fatality rate from smallpox

281

(2)

13.8 Smallpox at Thornton-in-Lonsdale

283

(3)

13.9 Driving the epidemics at Thornton-in-Lonsdale

286

(4)

13.10 Smallpox in other rural communities

290

(9)

13.11 Classification of smallpox epidemics and integration with population dynamics

299

(4)

14 Infectious diseases in England and Wales in the 19th century

303

(18)

14.1 Measles in England and Wales, 1847-1893

304

(2)

14.2 Modelling the measles epidemics in England and Wales

306

(3)

14.3 Smallpox deaths in England and Wales, 1847-1893

309

(1)

14.4 Scarlet fever in England and Wales

310

(1)

14.5 Annual scarlet fever deaths in England and Wales, 1847-1893

310

(1)

14.6 Seasonal drivers for the scarlet fever epidemics

311

(1)

14.7 Effects of malnutrition on the biology of scarlet fever

311

(3)

14.8 Age of children dying of scarlet fever

314

(1)

14.9 Modelling the dynamics of scarlet fever in England and Wales, 1847-1877

314

(1)

14.10 Reasons for the decline in scarlet fever mortality

315

(1)

14.11 Diphtheria in England and Wales, 1855-1893

316

(3)

14.12 Overview of the interactions of lethal infectious diseases in England and Wales in the 19th century: effects of malnutrition

319

(2)

15 Prospectives – towards a metapopulation study

321

(14)

15.1 Mortality cycles in 404 aggregated parishes

324

(1)

15.2 Metapopulation dynamics

325

(3)

15.3 The spread of the plague in northwest England, a study in metapopulation dynamics

328

(2)

15.4 Migration and dispersion in the metapopulation

330

(5)

References

335

(13)

Index

348

Please wait while the item is added to your bag...

FREE SHIPPING

Amazon no longer offers textbook rentals. We do!

Human Demography and Disease

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials