Information Warfare and Organizational Decision-making

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ISBN: 9781596930797 | 1596930799
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 12/31/2006

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Unconventional warfare is now conventional, requiring the military to organize in new ways that can rapidly respond to unprecedented battlefield challenges. Cutting-edge computing is helping military planners create original organizational structures able to adapt to ever-changing strategies and tactics. The computational techniques in this book provide practical solutions for organizing and commanding military operations, gathering intelligence, deploying antiterrorism measures, and securing information. The book covers artificial intelligence, game and control theory, and cognitive modeling, offering new insight into military psychology and training. Strategists can develop robust organizations that withstand and mitigate attack. They also learn how to neutralize enemy command and control to gain tactical advantage.

Introduction	p. ix
Know Thy Enemy: Acquisition, Representation, and Management of Knowledge About Adversary Organizations	p. 1
Introduction to Organization Warfare	p. 2
Organizational Intelligence	p. 6
Leadership Analysis	p. 12
Social Network Modeling and Analysis	p. 14
Representative Analytic Process and Tools	p. 19
Application Considerations	p. 23
Endnotes	p. 25
Learning from the Enemy: Approaches to Identifying and Modeling the Hidden Enemy Organization	p. 29
An Elusive Enemy	p. 29
Domain of Organization Identification	p. 31
Adversary Identification Research	p. 33
Identification Focus: Definition of Command and Control Organization	p. 36
From Structure to Strategy: Characterizing Behavior of a C2 Organization	p. 38
Looking Beyond the Smoke Screen: Definition of Observations	p. 42
Discovering the Dots: Finding Identities of Actors	p. 45
Connecting the Dots: Discovering Patterns of Interactions and Activities	p. 48
Behavior Learning and Simulating Enemy Activities	p. 53
The Overall Process of Identifying Enemy Command and Control	p. 55
Experimental Validation of the Organization Identification Process	p. 57
References	p. 59
Who's Calling? Deriving Organization Structure from Communication Records	p. 63
The Tasks	p. 64
CCR Structures and Their Graphical Representation	p. 64
The Ali Baba Scenarios	p. 66
Social Network Analysis	p. 67
Previous Work Exploiting Time in Social Networks	p. 71
The Windowing Down the Lines (WDL): The Algorithm	p. 73
The Scenario	p. 74
The Data	p. 74
Formatting the Data	p. 74
Time Windowing	p. 75
Time Overlapping	p. 77
The Algorithm	p. 79
Simple Simulation Tests	p. 81
Evaluation of WDL with the Ali Baba Dataset	p. 82
Without Topics	p. 82
With Topics	p. 84
The RSF Algorithm	p. 86
References	p. 88
Means and Ways: Practical Approaches to Impact Adversary Decision-Making Processes	p. 89
Planning Operations for Organization Impact	p. 90
Targeting Decision-Making	p. 93
Targeting the Entire Organization	p. 94
Effects-Based Targeting	p. 95
Inducing Effects for Defeat	p. 100
Denial or Destruction	p. 101
Disruption	p. 103
Deception	p. 104
Direction and Reflexion	p. 103
Targeting for Effects	p. 107
Vulnerability Assessment	p. 108
Plan Development	p. 108
Strategic Analysis	p. 109
Organization Behavior Analysis	p. 109
Application Considerations	p. 110
Endnotes	p. 111
Breakdown of Control: Common Malfunctions of Organizational Decision-Making	p. 115
Tardy Decision	p. 117
Low and High Threshold	p. 120
Excess of Timidity or Aggressiveness	p. 121
Self-Reinforcing Error	p. 122
Overload	p. 124
Cascading Collapse	p. 125
Misallocation of Authority	p. 127
Lack of Synchronization and Coordination	p. 128
Deadlock	p. 131
Thrashing and Livelock	p. 132
Acknowledgments	p. 133
References	p. 134
Propagation of Defeat: Inducing and Mitigating a Self-Reinforcing Degradation	p. 135
A Simple Model for Self-Reinforcing Decision Overload	p. 136
Propagation of Disruptions in Organizations	p. 141
Active Compensation	p. 144
Dynamic Reorganization to Mitigate Malfunctions	p. 146
Modeling Team Decision-Making: Decision Responsibility and Information Structure	p. 147
Measuring Decision-Making Performance	p. 150
Forecasting Decision Requirements	p. 151
A Simulation of the Firefighting Example	p. 151
Mitigating and Inducing Malfunctions	p. 153
Acknowledgments	p. 156
References	p. 156
Gossip Matters: Destabilization of an Organization by Injecting Suspicion	p. 159
Is Gossip Good or Bad?	p. 160
What Is Gossip?	p. 162
Anonymous Information Exchange Networks	p. 163
It's All Bits	p. 164
Miscreant Markets	p. 165
TAG Model Overview	p. 167
The Mechanisms of Trust	p. 169
Trust Model	p. 169
Honesty Models	p. 171
Gossip Model	p. 171
Gossip and Disruption	p. 172
Setting the Baselines	p. 172
A Virtual Experiment in Disruption	p. 173
Results of TAG Experiments	p. 174
Interpretation	p. 175
Giving and Taking	p. 177
Acknowledgments	p. 181
Endnotes	p. 181
Crystal Ball: Quantitatively Estimating Impacts of Probes and Interventions on an Enemy Organization	p. 191
Organizational Analysis Approach	p. 192
Organization's Options for Dealing with Mission Complexity	p. 192
Enemy Organization Dynamics and Counteraction Strategies	p. 193
Actionable Implications	p. 194
Main Methods	p. 195
Developing Strategies Against Enemy Organizations	p. 195
Probe Identification	p. 196
Intervention Planning	p. 196
Test-Case Scenario: A Human-Guided Torpedo Attack on a U.S. Military Vessel in a Foreign Port	p. 197
Enemy Organization Model	p. 199
Enemy Mission Complexity Characteristics	p. 200
Estimating Impacts of an Example Probe	p. 203
Estimating Impacts of Example Interventions	p. 205
Analytical and Numerical Methods Underlying VDT and Related Approaches	p. 207
Organization Modeling and Strategy Development with Sim Vision	p. 208
Implications for Detecting and Defeating Enemy Organizations	p. 211
References	p. 211
Organizational Armor: Design of Attack-Resistant Organizations	p. 213
How Organizations Cope with Disruptions	p. 214
Attack-Resistant Design Solutions	p. 218
Organizational Design Formalism	p. 221
Precursors for Superior Organizational Performance	p. 222
A Computational Approach for Predicting Organizational Performance	p. 225
Normative Design of Robust and Adaptive Organizations	p. 228
Empirical Validation of Normative Design Methodology	p. 230
Reverse-Engineering Organizational Vulnerabilities	p. 233
Robust and Adaptive Designs of Attack-Resistant Organizations	p. 236
Illustrative Example-Redesigning an Organization to Enhance Attack Resistance	p. 242
Example Scenario	p. 242
Enemy Attacks	p. 245
Redesign Principles	p. 246
Attack-Specific Courses of Action	p. 247
Engineering for Congruence with Mission in the Face of Attacks	p. 248
Adaptation	p. 250
Analyze Organizational Design	p. 251
References	p. 252
About the Authors	p. 257
Index	p. 265
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Information Warfare and Organizational Decision-making

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