Iraq

This volume provides analysis of the state of Iraq's security and of current Western policy toward the country in the wake of the Gulf War. It also examines the political, economic, and security impact of sanctions, Iraq's future role as an oil exporter, the U.S. policy of "dual containment" in relation to Iraq, and options for dealing with Iraq in the future.

Anthony H. Cordesman is currently a senior fellow and codirector of the Middle East Program, and director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, a military analyst for ABC News and adjunct professor of national security studies at Georgetown University. He has served in senior positions in the office of the secretary of defense, NATO, and the U.S. Senate. Abraham R. Wagner is an independent defense consultant in the area of national security problems working with Science Applications International, Inc., as well as several federal agencies. He has written extensively on Third World military technologies and appeared on ABC News, the BBC, National Public Radio, and CBN to provide expert analysis of the Persian Gulf War.

List of Tables and Illustrations

ix

(4)

Acknowledgments

xiii

1 Introduction

1

(7)

The Policy Options for Dealing with Iraq

1

(2)

Key Policy Complications in Dealing with Iraq

3

(2)

A Lack of Present and Future Consensus

5

(1)

Policy and the Role of Analysis

6

(2)

2 Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War

8

(4)

Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War

8

(2)

The Informal and Formal Basis of Iraq's Power Structure

10

(2)

3 The Informal Politics of the "Center"

12

(24)

Sunni Popular Opinion and the "Center" Immediately after the Gulf War

12

(1)

Sunni Popular Opinion and the "Center" Since the Gulf War

13

(3)

Growing Alienation and the Death of "Reform"

16

(3)

Problems with the Key Clans

19

(2)

Problems in Saddam's Family and Coterie

21

(10)

Current Trends in Iraq's Informal Power Structure

31

(2)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

33

(3)

4 The Formal Politics of Iraq's Instruments of State Power

36

(23)

The Revolutionary Command Council

36

(1)

The Ba'ath Party

37

(3)

The Cabinet and Government Leadership

40

(2)

Financial Resources

42

(2)

The Security Structure

44

(5)

The Iraqi Armed Forces

49

(8)

The "Old Boy" Network and the Interaction Between Informal and Formal Instruments of Power

57

(1)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

58

(1)

5 The "Periphery": Opposition Movements and Ethnic and Sectarian Issues

59

(52)

An "Artificial" State

59

(1)

The Politics of Conspiracy and Violence

60

(3)

Opposition Parties

63

(7)

Iraq's Crisis with the Kurds

70

(25)

The Role of the Kurds in a "Centrist" or "Peripheral" Strategy

95

(2)

Iraq's Crisis with Its Shi'ites

97

(12)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

109

(2)

6 The "Periphery": Political Alienation and Abuses of Human Rights

111

(13)

Killings and Torture

111

(7)

Prisons and the Legal System

118

(2)

Freedom of Speech and Political Dissent

120

(1)

Treatment of Minorities and Foreigners

121

(1)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

122

(2)

7 Sanctions and Economic Instability

124

(37)

The Iraqi Economy Before the Gulf War

127

(9)

The Iraqi Economy After the Gulf War

136

(1)

UN Sanctions and the Policies of the Iraqi Government

137

(10)

The Iraqi Government's Refusal of Relief from UN Sanctions

147

(3)

Accepting UN Security Council Resolution 986

150

(3)

The Future Political Impact of Sanctions

153

(3)

Debt and Reparations After the Gulf War

156

(2)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

158

(3)

8 Oil and Iraqi Export Capabilities

161

(21)

Iraq's Strategic Oil and Gas Potential

161

(2)

Iraqi Oil Production Before the Gulf War

163

(7)

Oil Production Efforts Since the Gulf War

170

(3)

Iraqi Refining and Petrochemical Capability

173

(1)

Production and Development Prospects Once Sanctions Are Lifted or Relaxed

174

(2)

Natural Gas

176

(1)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

177

(5)

9 External Relations

182

(29)

Iraq's Foreign Policy Since the Gulf War

182

(2)

The Continuing Threat to Kuwait

184

(5)

Relations with Iran

189

(4)

Iraqi Support of the People's Mujahideen

193

(1)

Relations with Syria, Jordan, and Turkey

193

(7)

Iraq, Egypt, and Other Arab States

200

(1)

Iraq and the Gulf States

201

(3)

Iraq and the International Community

204

(5)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

209

(2)

10 Military Developments

211

(22)

Iraqi Military Expenditures

218

(6)

Iraqi Arms Imports

224

(2)

Iraqi Efforts to Smuggle Arms and Parts and Rebuild Its Iraqi Military Industries Since the Gulf War

226

(6)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

232

(1)

11 The Threat from Iraqi Land Forces

233

(30)

The Impact of the Gulf War on the Iraqi Army

233

(3)

The Iraqi Army in 1996

236

(1)

The Republican Guards

237

(1)

Deployments Against the Kurds

238

(1)

Deployments Against the Shi'ites

239

(1)

Land Force Equipment Holdings

240

(18)

Land Force Readiness and Warfighting Effectiveness

258

(4)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

262

(1)

12 The Threat from Iraqi Air and Air Defense Forces

263

(18)

The Cost of the Gulf War to the Iraqi Air Force

263

(2)

Current Air Force Equipment Holdings

265

(6)

Air Readiness and Warfighting Capabilities

271

(3)

Land-Based Air Defenses

274

(3)

Land-Based Air Defense Readiness and Warfighting Capability

277

(3)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

280

(1)

13 The Threat from Iraqi Naval Forces

281

(5)

Surviving Combat Ships

281

(4)

Naval Readiness and Warfighting Capability

285

(1)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

285

(1)

14 Unconventional Warfare and Terrorism

286

(4)

Recent Iraqi Terrorist Activity

286

(1)

Attempting to Assassinate President Bush

287

(1)

Other Recent Iraqi Acts of Terrorism

288

(1)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

289

(1)

15 The Threat from Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction

290

(54)

The Struggle to Eliminate Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction

290

(16)

Iraq's Future Missile Capabilities

306

(8)

Iraq's Future Chemical Weapons Capabilities

314

(4)

Iraq's Future Biological Weapons Capabilities

318

(15)

Iraq's Future Nuclear Capability

333

(2)

Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy

335

(9)

16 The Problem of Policy: Beyond Sanctions and "Dual Containment"

344

(16)

The Case for Continuing Military Containment

345

(5)

Prospects for Political Change

350

(6)

Iran and Iraq: The Risk of a "Devil's Bargain,"

356

(1)

The Problem of Sanctions

357

(3)

Sources and Methods

360

(3)

Notes

363

(31)

About the Book and Authors

394

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Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials