The Long Game China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order

For more than a century, no US adversary or coalition of adversaries - not Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, or the Soviet Union - has ever reached sixty percent of US GDP. China is the sole exception, and it is fast emerging into a global superpower that could rival, if not eclipse, the United States. What does China want, does it have a grand strategy to achieve it, and what should the United States do about it?

In The Long Game, Rush Doshi draws from a rich base of Chinese primary sources, including decades worth of party documents, leaked materials, memoirs by party leaders, and a careful analysis of China's conduct to provide a history of China's grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. Taking readers behind the Party's closed doors, he uncovers Beijing's long, methodical game to displace America from its hegemonic position in both the East Asia regional and global orders through three sequential "strategies of displacement." Beginning in the 1980s, China focused for two decades on "hiding capabilities and biding time." After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, it became more assertive regionally, following a policy of "actively accomplishing something." Finally, in the aftermath populist elections of 2016, China shifted to an even more aggressive strategy for undermining US hegemony, adopting the phrase "great changes unseen in century." After charting how China's long game has evolved, Doshi offers a comprehensive yet asymmetric plan for an effective US response. Ironically, his proposed approach takes a page from Beijing's own strategic playbook to undermine China's ambitions and strengthen American order without competing dollar-for-dollar, ship-for-ship, or loan-for-loan.

Rush Doshi is the founding director of the Brookings China Strategy Initiative and a fellow (on leave) at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. Previously, he was a member of the Asia policy working groups for the Biden and Clinton presidential campaigns and a Fulbright Fellow in China. His
research has appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and International Organization, among other publications. Proficient in Mandarin, Doshi received his PhD from Harvard University focusing on Chinese foreign policy and his bachelor's from
Princeton University. He is currently serving as Director for China on the Biden Administration's National Security Council (NSC), but this work was completed before his government service, is based entirely on open sources, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the US Government or NSC.

Acknowledgments
Introduction
Chapter 1 - "A Coherent Body of Thought and Action": Grand Strategy and Hegemonic Order
Chapter 2 - "The Party Leads Everything": Nationalism, Leninism, and the Chinese Communist Party

PART I: "Hiding Capabilities and Biding Time": Blunting as China's First Displacement Strategy (1989-2008)
Chapter 3 - "New Cold Wars Have Begun": The Trifecta and the New American Threat
Chapter 4 - "Grasping the Assassin's Mace": Implementing Military Blunting
Chapter 5 - "Demonstrate Benign Intentions": Implementing Political Blunting
Chapter 6 - "Permanent Normal Trading Relations": Implementing Economic Blunting

PART II: "Actively Accomplish Something": Building as China's Second Displacement Strategy (2009-2016)
Chapter 7 - "A Change in the Balance of Power": The Financial Crisis and the Dawn of Building
Chapter 8 - "Make More Offensive Moves": Implementing Military Building
Chapter 9 - "Establish Regional Architecture": Implementing Political Building
Chapter 10 - "Aboard Our Development Train": Implementing Economic Building

PART III: "Great Changes Unseen in a Century": Global Expansion as China's Third Displacement Strategy (2017 and Beyond)
Chapter 11 - "Toward the World's Center Stage": American Decline and China's Global Ambition
Chapter 12 - "Standing Tall and Seeing Far": The Ways and Means of China's Global Expansion
Chapter 13 - An Asymmetric Strategy for US-China Competition

Conclusion
Appendix
Notes
Index