Loose-leaf Version for Statistics: Concepts and Controversies

David Moore and William Notz’s Statistics: Concepts and Controversies (SCC) introduces liberal arts majors to statistical ideas—and shows them how use those ideas to think about the statistical claims they see every day from polls, campaigns, advertising, public policy, and many different fields of study. The ultimate goal is to equip students with solid statistical reasoning skills that will help them understand impact of statistics on all aspects of our lives.
The new edition offers SCC’s signature combination of engaging cases, real-life examples and exercises, helpful pedagogy, rich full-color design, and innovative media learning tools, all significantly updated.

David S. Moore is Shanti S. Gupta Distinguished Professor of Statistics, Emeritus, at Purdue University and was 1998 president of the American Statistical Association. He received his A.B. from Princeton and his Ph.D. from Cornell, both in mathematics. He has written many research papers in statistical theory and served on the editorial boards of several major journals. Professor Moore is an elected fellow of the American Statistical Association and of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and an elected member of the International Statistical Institute. He has served as program director for statistics and probability at the National Science Foundation.  In recent years, Professor Moore has devoted his attention to the teaching of statistics. He was the content developer for the Annenberg/Corporation for Public Broadcasting college-level telecourse Against All Odds: Inside Statistics and for the series of video modules Statistics: Decisions through Data, intended to aid the teaching of statistics in schools. He is the author of influential articles on statistics education and of several leading texts. Professor Moore has served as president of the International Association for Statistical Education and has received the Mathematical Association of America’s national award for distinguished college or university teaching of mathematics.  William I. Notz is Professor of Statistics at the Ohio State University.  He received his B.S. in physics from the Johns Hopkins University and his Ph.D. in mathematics from Cornell University.  His first academic job was as an assistant professor in the Department of Statistics at Purdue University.  While there, he taught the introductory concepts course with Professor Moore and as a result of this experience he developed an interest in statistical education.  Professor Notz is a co-author of EESEE (the Electronic Encyclopedia of Statistical Examples and Exercises) and co-author of Statistics: Concepts and Controversies. Professor Notz’s research interests have focused on experimental design and computer experiments.  He is the author of several research papers and of a book on the design and analysis of computer experiments.  He is an elected fellow of the American Statistical Association.  He has served as the editor of the journal Technometrics and as editor of the Journal of Statistics Education.  He has served as the Director of the Statistical Consulting Service, as acting chair of the Department of Statistics for a year, and as an Associate Dean in the College of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at the Ohio State University.  He is a winner of the Ohio State University’s Alumni Distinguished Teaching Award. 

To the Teacher: Statistics as a Liberal Discipline
Applications Index
Prelude: Making Sense of Statistics
Statistics and You: What Lies ahead in This Book
About the Authors

PART I Producing Data
1 Where Do Data Come From?
Case Study 
Talking about data: individuals and variables
Observational studies 
Sample surveys 
Census 
Experiments 
Statistics in Summary 
Link It 
Case Study Evaluated 
LaunchPad Online Resources 
Check the Basics 
Exploring the Web

2 Samples, Good and Bad
Case Study How to sample badly  Simple random samples  Can you trust a sample?  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 2 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

3 What Do Samples Tell Us?
Case Study From sample to population  Sampling variability  Margin of error and all that  Confidence statements  Sampling from large populations  Statistical Controversies: Should Election Polls Be Banned?  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 3 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

4 Sample Surveys in the Real World
Case Study  How sample surveys go wrong  Sampling errors  Nonsampling errors  Wording questions  How to live with nonsampling errors  Sample design in the real world  The challenge of Internet surveys  Statistical Controversies: The Harris Online Poll  Probability samples  Questions to ask before you believe a poll  Statistics in Summary Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 4 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

5 Experiments, Good and Bad
Case Study  Talking about experiments  How to experiment badly  Randomized comparative experiments  The logic of experimental design  Statistical significance  How to live with observational studies  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 5 Exercises  Exploring the Web

6 Experiments in the Real World
Case Study  Equal treatment for all  Double-blind experiments  Refusals, nonadherers, and dropouts  Can we generalize?  Experimental design in the real world  Matched pairs and block designs  Statistical Controversies: Is It or Isn’t It a Placebo?  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 6 Exercises  Exploring the Web

7 Data Ethics
Case Study  First principles  Institutional review boards  Informed consent  Confidentiality  Clinical trials  Statistical Controversies: Hope for Sale?  Behavioral and social science experiments  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 7 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

8 Measuring
Case Study  Measurement basics  Know your variables  Measurements, valid and invalid  Measurements, accurate and inaccurate  Statistical
Controversies: SAT Exams in College Admissions  Improving reliability, reducing bias  Pity the poor psychologist  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 8 Exercises  Exploring the Web

9 Do the Numbers Make Sense?
Case Study  What didn’t they tell us?  Are the numbers consistent with each other?  Are the numbers plausible?  Are the numbers too good to be true?  Is the arithmetic right?  Is there a hidden agenda?  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 9 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

Part I Review
Part I Summary  Part I Review Exercises  Part I Projects

PART II Organizing Data
10 Graphs, Good and Bad
Case Study  Data tables  Types of variables  Pie charts and bar graphs  Beware the pictogram  Change over time: line graphs  Watch those scales!  Making good graphs  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 10 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

11 Displaying Distributions with Graphs
Case Study  Histograms  Interpreting histograms  Stemplots  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 11 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

12 Describing Distributions with Numbers
Case Study  Median and quartiles  The five-number summary and boxplots  Statistical Controversies: Income Inequality  Mean and standard deviation
Choosing numerical descriptions  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 12 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

13 Normal Distributions
Case Study  Density curves  The center and variability of a density curve  Normal distributions  The 68–95–99.7 rule  Standard scores  Percentiles of Normal distributions*  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 13 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

14 Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation
Case Study  Scatterplots  Interpreting scatterplots  Correlation  Understanding correlation  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 14 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

15 Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction, and Causation
Case Study  Regression lines  Regression equations  Understanding prediction
Correlation and regression  The question of causation  Statistical Controversies: Gun Control and Crime  Evidence for causation  Correlation, prediction, and big data  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 15 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

16 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics
Case Study  Index numbers  Fixed market basket price indexes
Using the CPI  Understanding the CPI  Statistical Controversies: Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?  The place of government statistics  The question of social statistics  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 16 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

Part II Review
Part II Summary  Part II Review Exercises  Part II Projects

PART III Chance
17 Thinking about Chance
Case Study  The idea of probability  The ancient history of chance  Myths about chance behavior  Personal probabilities  Probability and risk  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 17 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

18 Probability Models
Case Study  Probability models  Probability rules  Probability and odds
Probability models for sampling  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study
Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 18 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

19 Simulation
Case Study  Where do probabilities come from?  Simulation basics  Thinking about independence  More elaborate simulations  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 19 Exercises  Exploring the Web

20 The House Edge: Expected Values
Case Study  Expected values  The law of large numbers
Thinking about expected values  Statistical Controversies: The State of
Legalized Gambling  Finding expected values by simulation
Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 20 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

Part III Review
Part III Summary  Part III Review Exercises  Part III Projects

PART IV Inference
21 What Is a Confidence Interval?
Case Study  Estimating  Estimating with confidence  Understanding confidence intervals  More on confidence intervals for a population proportion∗  The sampling distribution of a sample mean∗  Confidence intervals for a population mean*  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 21 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

22 What Is a Test of Significance?
Case Study  The reasoning of statistical tests of significance  Hypotheses and P-values  Statistical significance  Calculating P-values∗  Tests for a population mean∗  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 22 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

23 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference
Case Study  Using inference wisely  The woes of significance tests  The advantages of confidence intervals  Significance at the 5% level isn’t magical  Statistical Controversies: Should Hypothesis Tests Be Banned?  Beware of searching for significance  Inference as decision*  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 23 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

24 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-Square Test∗
Case Study  Two-way tables  Inference for a two-way table  The chi-square test  Using the chi-square test  Simpson’s paradox  Statistics in Summary  Link It  Case Study Evaluated  LaunchPad Online Resources  Check the Basics  Chapter 24 Exercises  Exploring the Web 

Part IV Review
Part IV Summary  Part IV Review Exercises  Part IV Projects

Notes and Data Sources
Resolving the Controversy
Solutions to Now It’s Your Turn Exercises
Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises
Index
Table A Random digits
Table B Percentiles of the Normal distributions