Making Hard Decisions

This best-selling and up-to-date survey of decision analysis concepts and techniques is accessible to students with limited mathematical backgrounds. It is designed for advanced undergraduate and MBA-level courses in decision analysis and also for business courses in introductory quantitative methods. (Prerequisites: college algebra; introductory statistics.)

1. Introduction
SECTION I - MODELING DECISIONS
2. Elements of Decision Problems
3. Structuring Decisions
4. Making Choices
5. Sensitivity Analysis
6. Creativity and Decision Structuring
SECTION II - MODELING UNCERTAINTY
7. Probability Basics
8. Subjective Probability
9. Theoretical Probability Models
10. Using Data
11. Monte Carlo Simulation
12. Value of Information
SECTION III - MODELING PREFERENCES
13. Risk Attitude
14. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications
15. Conflicting Objectives I: Some Basic Techniques
16. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models
17. Conclusion and Further Reading
Appendixes

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Making Hard Decisions

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials