Management Science and Decision Technology

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ISBN: 9780324007152 | 0324007159
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 10/11/1999

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The focus of this book is on using data and spreadsheet models effectively for the analysis of business problems and decision making. Included are discussions of building good spreadsheet models; data collection, visualization, and statistical analysis; forecasting; optimization using Excel Solver; decision and risk analysis; and simulation using Crystal Ball add-in for Excel and Arena BE. The principal focus is on gaining insight and intuition for better decisions, with applications in operations planning, finance, and marketing.

Preface

Part 1 Models, Data Management, and Analysis

Modeling for Decisions and Insight

(48)

Applications and Benefits of Management Science

(1)

Strategic Business Decisions

(1)

Scheduling Airline Crews

(1)

Poultry Production

(1)

Search for Sunken Treasure

(1)

Financial Strategies

(1)

Decision Technology

(4)

Spreadsheets

(2)

Spreadsheet Add-Ins

(1)

Stand-Alone Software

(1)

Developing Models

(8)

Descriptive Models

(1)

Management Science Practice: Labor Scheduling at Taco Bell

(4)

Optimization Models

(3)

Models Involving Uncertainty

(1)

The Importance of Good Data

(1)

Analyzing and Solving Models

(10)

Model Analysis

(1)

Management Science Practice: Model Analysis of HIV Transmission through Needle Sharing

(5)

Tornado and Spider Charts

(2)

Solving Optimization Models

(2)

Interpreting and Using Model Results

(1)

A Case Study of Modeling and Analysis: Inventory Management

(11)

Managing Inventory Systems

(2)

Model Development

(3)

Model Analysis and Solution

(3)

Interpreting Results

(2)

Applying Inventory Theory to Cash Management

(1)

Problems

(5)

Notes

(1)

Bibliography

(1)

Appendix: Basic Spreadsheet Skills

(5)

Functions

(2)

Auditing Your Spreadsheets

(1)

Creating Tornado and Spider Charts

(3)

Data Management and Analysis

(47)

Applications of Data Management and Analysis

(1)

Law Enforcement

(1)

Health Care

(1)

Retail Operations and Strategy

(1)

Hotel Location

(1)

Data Storage and Retrieval

(9)

Management Science Practice: Allders, International

(3)

Sorting and Filtering Data

(4)

Using Auto Filter to Check Data Accuracy

(1)

Using Data Retrieval Methods in Optimization Modeling

(1)

Data Visualization

(6)

Charts

(2)

Geographic Data Maps

(3)

Data Analysis

(12)

Descriptive Statistics

(1)

Pivot Tables

(3)

Probability Distributions and Data Fitting with Crystal Ball

(3)

Covariance and Correlation

(3)

Applying Covariance in Financial Portfolio Optimization Models

(1)

Regression Analysis

(13)

Simple Linear Regression

(3)

Statistical Issues in Regression

(4)

Multiple Linear Regression

(4)

Building Regression Models

(1)

Using Regression in Optimization Models

(1)

Technology for Statistical Analysis

(1)

Problems

(2)

Notes

(1)

Bibliography

(1)

Forecasting

(44)

Applications of Forecasting

(1)

Plant Closure at Allied-Signal

(1)

Call-Center Demand at L. L. Bean

(1)

Inventory Management at IBM

(1)

Time Series Components

(4)

Models for Time Series with Only an Irregular Component

102

(5)

Single Moving Average

102

(1)

Measuring Forecast Accuracy

102

(3)

Single Exponential Smoothing

105

(2)

Models for Time Series with a Trend Component

107

(4)

Double Moving Average

107

(2)

Double Exponential Smoothing

109

(2)

Models for Time Series with a Seasonal Component

111

(4)

Additive Seasonality

111

(2)

Multiplicative Seasonality

113

(2)

Models for Time Series with Trend and Seasonal Components

115

(2)

Holt-Winters Additive Model

115

(1)

Holt-Winters Multiplicative Model

116

(1)

Forecasting with Regression Models

117

(8)

Management Science Practice: A Forcasting Model for Supermarket Checkout Services

118

(3)

Linear Regression for Time Series Forecasting

121

(2)

Using Indicator Variables in Regression Models

123

(2)

Forecasting Technology

125

(1)

Choosing the Best Forecasting Method

126

(1)

Forecasting with CB Predictor

126

(7)

Interpreting CB Predictor Outputs

133

(1)

Applications of Forecasting to Model Building

133

(3)

Problems

136

(3)

Note

139

(1)

Bibliography

139

(1)

Part 2 Optimization

Linear and Multiobjective Optimization Models

140

(59)

The Structure of Linear and Multiobjective Optimization Models

141

(2)

Applications of Linear and Multiobjective Programming Models

143

(2)

Land Management at the National Forest Service

143

(1)

Credit Collection

144

(1)

Research and Development Funding

144

(1)

Site Selection

144

(1)

Modeling Optimization Problems in Excel

145

(1)

Building Linear Programming Models

146

(18)

Dimensionality Checks

148

(1)

LP Modeling Examples

148

(6)

Standard Form

154

(8)

Management Science Practice: Using Transportation Models for Procter & Gamble's Product Sourcing Decisions

162

(2)

Solving Linear Programming Models

164

(5)

Intuition and LP Solutions

164

(1)

When Intuition Can Fail

165

(1)

Using Excel Solver

166

(3)

Interpreting Solver Reports and Sensitivity Analysis

169

(8)

Answer and Limit Reports

170

(1)

Sensitivity Report

171

(3)

Scenario Analysis

174

(3)

Solving Multiobjective Models

177

(7)

Weighed Objective Approach

177

(3)

Absolute Priorities Approach

180

(1)

Goal-Programming Approach

181

(2)

Management Science Practice: Goal Programming for Site Location at Truck Transport Corporation

183

(1)

Technology for Linear Optimization

184

(1)

Problems

185

(11)

Notes

196

(1)

Bibliography

196

(1)

Appendix: Using Premium Solver to Solve Linear Programs

197

(2)

Integer and Nonlinear Optimization Models

199

(47)

Applications of Integer and Nonlinear Models

200

(1)

Project Selection at the National Cancer institute

200

(1)

Crew Scheduling at American Airlines

200

(1)

Mortgage Valuation Models at Prudential Securities

201

(1)

Paper Production

201

(1)

Building Integer-Programming Models

201

(11)

Management Science Practice: Sales Staffing at Qantas

204

(8)

Solving Integer-Programming Models

212

(6)

Using Solver for Integer Programs

212

(2)

Sensitivity Analysis

214

(4)

Building Nonlinear Optimization Models

218

(8)

Management Science Practice: Kanban Sizing at Whirlpool Corporation

225

(1)

Solving Nonlinear Programming Problems

226

(7)

Using Excel Solver

226

(2)

Sensitivity Analysis

228

(1)

The Problems of Nonlinearity

229

(2)

Using Premium Solver's Evolutionary Algorithm for Difficult Problems

231

(2)

Technology for Integer and Nonlinear Optimization

233

(1)

Problems

234

(7)

Notes

241

(1)

Bibliography

241

(1)

Appendix: Using Premium Solver to Solve Integer and Nonlinear Programs

242

(4)

Solving Linear Integer Programs

242

(1)

Solving Nonlinear Programs

243

(3)

Part 3 Decision, Risk, and Simulation

Decision and Risk Analysis

246

(39)

Applications of Decision and Risk Analysis

248

(1)

Environmental Impact Assessment

248

(1)

Assessment of Catastrophic Risk

248

(1)

Sports Strategies

249

(1)

Risk Assessment for the Space Shuttle

249

(1)

Structuring Decision Problems

249

(5)

Generating Alternatives

249

(1)

Defining Outcomes

250

(1)

Decision Criteria

250

(1)

Decision Trees

251

(1)

Management Science Practice: Collegiate Athletic Drug Testing

252

(2)

Decision Strategies

254

(1)

Understanding Risk in Making Decisions

254

(6)

Average Payoff Strategy

255

(1)

Aggressive Strategy

255

(1)

Conservative Strategy

256

(1)

Opportunity Loss Strategy

256

(1)

Quantifying Risk---Insights from Finance

257

(1)

An Application of Decision and Risk Analysis: Evaluating Put and Call Options

258

(2)

Expected Value Decision Making

260

(6)

Management Science Practice: The Overbooking Problem at American Airlines

261

(2)

An Application of Expected Value Analysis: The ``Newsvendor'' Problem

263

(2)

Expected Value of Perfect Information

265

(1)

Optimal Expected Value Decision Strategies

266

(2)

Sensitivity Analysis of Decision Strategies

268

(1)

Technology for Decision Analysis

268

(1)

Risk Trade-Offs and Multiobjective Decisions

269

(3)

Utility and Decision Making

272

(5)

Exponential Utility Functions

275

(2)

Problems

277

(6)

Notes

283

(1)

Bibliography

284

(1)

Monte Carlo Simulation

285

(42)

Applications of Monte Carlo Simulation

286

(2)

New Venture Planning

286

(1)

Pharmaceutical Research

287

(1)

Project Management

287

(1)

Building and Implementing Monte Carlo Simulation Models

288

(4)

Sampling From Probability Distributions

292

(2)

Building Simulation Models with Crystal Ball

294

(8)

Interpreting Crystal Ball Output

298

(4)

Statistical Issues in Monte Carlo Simulation

302

(1)

Monte Carlo Simulation Examples

303

(7)

Newsvendor Problem

304

(2)

Management Science Practice: Simulating a CD Portfolio

306

(2)

Pricing Stock Options

308

(2)

Crystal Ball Tornado Chart Extender

310

(2)

Optimization and Simulation

312

(4)

Problems

316

(5)

Notes

321

(1)

Bibliography

321

(1)

Appendix: Additional Crystal Ball Features

321

(6)

Correlated Assumptions

321

(2)

Freezing Assumptions

323

(1)

Overlay Charts

323

(1)

Trend Charts

323

(1)

Sensitivity Charts

324

(3)

Systems Modeling and Simulation

327

(52)

Applications of Dynamic System Models

328

(2)

Toll Booth Improvement

328

(1)

Designing Security Checkpoints

329

(1)

Technology Evaluation

329

(1)

Dental Practice Management

329

(1)

Forest Fire Management

330

(1)

Modeling and Simulating Dynamic Systems

330

(5)

Queueing Systems

335

(4)

Customer Characteristics

335

(1)

Service Characteristics

336

(1)

Queue Characteristics

337

(1)

System Configuration

337

(1)

Management Science Practice: One Line or More?

338

(1)

Modeling and Simulating Queueing Systems

339

(3)

The Dynamics of Waiting Lines

342

(4)

Analytical Queueing Models

346

(8)

The M/M/1 Queueing Model

347

(1)

Other Queueing Models

348

(1)

Little's Law

349

(1)

Analytical Models vs. Simulation

350

(1)

Sensitivity Analysis

351

(2)

Management Science Practice: Queueing Models for Telemarketing at L.L. Bean

353

(1)

Modeling and Simulating Dynamic Inventory Systems

354

(5)

Using Simulation to Optimize Inventory Systems

357

(2)

Systems Simulation Technology

359

(11)

Arena Business Edition

359

(1)

Management Science Practice: Designing an Air Force Repair Center Using Simulation

360

(10)

Using Simulation Successfully

370

(2)

Verification and Validation

371

(1)

Statistical Issues

372

(1)

Problems

372

(6)

Notes

378

Bibliography

374

(5)

Appendix A Normal Distribution Table

379

(2)

Index

381

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Management Science and Decision Technology

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials

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Management Science and Decision Technology

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Supplemental Materials

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