The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes

Discusses natural catastrophes, focusing on the mathematical aspects of these phenomena. Provides a practical guide to the treatment of the diverse issues covered, ranging from hazard warning and forecasting, to risk criteria, and economic loss estimation. DLC: Natural disasters--Mathematical models.

Acknowledgements

ix

Portrait

xi

Edmond Halley

Prologue: Chaos and Catastrophe

1

(2)

A Taxonomy of Natural Hazards

3

(36)

Causality and Association

5

(5)

Extra-Terrestrial Hazards

10

(2)

Meteorological Hazards

12

(4)

Geological Hazards

16

(7)

Geomorphic Hazards

23

(5)

Hydrological Hazards

28

(8)

References

36

(3)

A Sense of Scale

39

(28)

Size Scales of Natural hazards

40

(15)

Spatial Scales of Natural Hazards

55

(10)

References

65

(2)

A Measure of Uncertainty

67

(26)

The Concept of Probability

68

(3)

The Meaning of Uncertainty

71

(3)

Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty

74

(6)

Probability Distributions

80

(9)

Addition of Probability Density Functions

89

(3)

References

92

(1)

A Matter of Time

93

(22)

Temporal Models of Natural Hazards

96

(9)

Long-term Data Records

105

(4)

Statistics of Extremes

109

(4)

References

113

(2)

Forecasting

115

(24)

Verification

119

(4)

Earthquake Indecision

123

(3)

Volcanic Eruption Traits

126

(3)

Tropical Cyclone Correlations

129

(5)

Flood Flows

134

(2)

References

136

(3)

Deciding to Warn

139

(30)

Deterministic Expert Systems

142

(4)

Uncertainty in Expert Systems

146

(10)

Subjective Probability

156

(2)

The Elicitation of Expert Judgement

158

(9)

References

167

(2)

A Question of Design

169

(26)

Dynamic Defence Strategy

170

(4)

Wind and Wave Offshore Design

174

(3)

Earthquake Ground Motion

177

(5)

Seismic Hazard Evaluation

182

(6)

Earthquake Siting Decisions

188

(5)

References

193

(2)

Damage Estimation

195

(22)

Earthquakes

197

(9)

Windstorms

206

(5)

Floods

211

(3)

Volcanic Eruptions

214

(1)

References

215

(2)

Catastrophe Cover

217

(22)

The Socio-Economic Dimension

220

(3)

Principles of Insurance Pricing

223

(4)

Quantification of Insurance Risk

227

(9)

Simulating Multiple Futures

236

(1)

References

237

(2)

Financial Issues

239

(22)

Financial and Physical Crashes

241

(6)

Catastrophe Bonds

247

(9)

CAT Calls

256

(3)

References

259

(2)

The Third Millennium

261

(18)

Natural Hazard Mortality

262

(5)

Hazard Coupling with the Environment

267

(4)

Computer Technology for Catastrophe Management

271

(2)

The New Age

273

(4)

References

277

(2)

Epilogue: The Twilight of Probability

279

(4)

Name Index

283

(4)

Subject Index

287

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The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials