Naive Decision Making: Mathematics Applied to the Social World

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ISBN: 9780521731638 | 0521731631
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 10/27/2008

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How should one choose the best restaurant to eat in? Or whom to marry? Can one really make money at gambling? Or predict the future?

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Introduction	p. xi
A day at the races	p. 1
Money for nothing	p. 1
The ideal bookmaker	p. 5
Negative money	p. 9
Probability and expectation	p. 10
Back to the races	p. 15
Betting last at the tote	p. 19
Betting first	p. 25
Real race-tracks	p. 31
The long run	p. 34
The laws of probability	p. 34
Cards, dice and coin tossing	p. 38
Random variables	p. 43
Independence	p. 49
A law of large numbers	p. 60
A long day at the races	p. 71
The two-horse race	p. 78
The vice of gambling and the virtue of insurance	p. 83
Bernard Shaw	p. 83
Annuities	p. 86
Smallpox	p. 93
Should we inoculate?	p. 99
Utility and Jensen's inequality	p. 103
Passing the time	p. 111
The three towers	p. 111
Euclid's algorithm	p. 113
Arithmetic modulo n	p. 120
Arithmetic modulo p	p. 128
Arithmetic modulo pq	p. 133
Mr Jonas entertains	p. 140
A pack of cards	p. 148
Find the largest	p. 148
Records	p. 150
How to choose a restaurant	p. 153
Back to sorting	p. 159
Shortest paths	p. 166
Other people	p. 176
Marrying	p. 176
Voting	p. 183
Preferring	p. 189
Simple games	p. 195
Scissors, Paper, Stone	p. 195
Scissors, Paper	p. 199
Can we generalise?	p. 204
Morra	p. 209
Can we generalise further?	p. 213
A noisy duel	p. 216
Points of agreement	p. 221
An evening out	p. 221
Technical points	p. 227
What about reality?	p. 230
Fixed points	p. 233
Nash equilibrium	p. 236
Hawks, doves and others	p. 240
Long duels	p. 249
A, B and C	p. 249
The three-sided duel	p. 252
One-person duels	p. 257
HHH	p. 267
Tit for tat	p. 271
Foundational matters	p. 277
A night at the casino	p. 282
How to gamble if you must	p. 282
Boldness be my friend	p. 286
Difference and differential equations	p. 292
The casino's view	p. 298
A flutter on the lottery	p. 308
Life is a lottery	p. 316
Prophecy	p. 321
Coin tossing	p. 321
A needle in a haystack	p. 324
Tchebychev improved	p. 326
A better needle?	p. 331
Final reflections	p. 335
First the music, then the words	p. 335
Mathematics and decision making	p. 341
The logarithm	p. 345
Cardano	p. 351
Huygens's problems	p. 358
Hints on pronunciation	p. 364
Bibliography	p. 366
Index	p. 370
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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Naive Decision Making: Mathematics Applied to the Social World

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Naive Decision Making: Mathematics Applied to the Social World

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