The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization

Get a new perspective from the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics

The failure of the vast majority of economists in government, academia and the private sector to predict either the post-2008 Great Recession or the degree of its severity has raised serious credibility issues for the profession. The repeated failures of central banks and other policymakers in all advanced countries to meet their inflation or growth targets in spite of astronomical monetary easing, have left the public rightfully suspicious of the establishment and its economists.

The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization elucidates what was missing in economics all along and what changes are needed to make the profession relevant to the economic challenges of today. Once the other half of macroeconomics is understood both as a post-bubble phenomenon and as a phase of post-industrial economies, it should be possible for policy makers to devise appropriate measures to overcome difficulties advanced countries are facing today such as stagnation and income inequality.

•    Shows how it’s possible to devise appropriate policy response to slow wage and productivity growth in these economies

•    Demonstrates that the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy changes as an economy undergoes different stages of development

•    Argues that tax rules, regulations and even educational system must be revised to match the need of pursued (by emerging nations) countries

•    Explains the 200-year process of economic development and where that process is taking all of us

Inside, Richard C. Koo offers a completely new way of looking at the economic predicament of advanced countries today. 

RICHARD C. KOO is the Chief Economist of Nomura Research Institute, where he is responsible for providing independent economic and market analysis to Nomura Securities, the leading securities house in Japan, and its clients. Best known for his theory of balance sheet recessions, Koo has advised several Japanese prime ministers over the last thirty years, and for the past ten years, he has advised numerous Western governments and central banks on how best to address post-bubble economic and banking problems. Before joining Nomura in 1984, Richard, a US citizen, was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Prior to that, he was a Doctoral Fellow of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In addition to being one of the first non-Japanese to participate in the development of Japan's five-year economic plan, he taught at Waseda University in Tokyo as a visiting professor and is now a Senior Advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Preface ix

About the Author xiii

Chapter 1 Introduction to the Other Half of Macroeconomics 1

Chapter 2 Balance Sheet Problems Create Shortage of Borrowers 17

Chapter 3 Dearth of Investment Opportunities Can Deter Borrowers 53

Chapter 4 Macroeconomic Policy During the Three Stages of Economic Development 83

Chapter 5 Challenges of Remaining an Advanced Country 107

Chapter 6 Helicopter Money and the QE Trap 127

Chapter 7 Europe Repeating Mistakes of 1930s 169

Chapter 8 Banking Problems in the Other Half of Macroeconomics 195

Chapter 9 The Trump Phenomenon and the Conflict Between Free Capital Flows and Free Trade 225

Chapter 10 Rethinking Economics 257

References & Bibliography 281

Afterword 287

Index 289

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