A Perfect Moral Storm The Ethical Tragedy of Climate Change

Climate change is one, especially clear, instantiation of a profound challenge to humanity. The problem is genuinely global, dominantly intergenerational, and takes place in a setting where our theories are weak. This convergence justifies calling it a "perfect moral storm". One consequence of this storm is that, even if the other difficult ethical questions surrounding climate change could be answered, we might still find it difficult to act. For the storm makes us extremely vulnerable to moral corruption. This book explores how the perfect moral storm is manifest in climate change. It argues that despite decades of awareness, we are currently accelerating hard into the problem in a way that defies standard explanations. This suggests that our current focus on the scientific and economic dimensions of the problem is too narrow, and the tendency to see climate change as a traditional tragedy of the commons facing nation states too optimistic. The key problem is that the current generation, and especially the most affluent, are in a position to pass on most of the costs of their behavior (and especially the most serious harms) to the global poor, future generations and nonhuman nature. This diagnosis helps to explain the past failures of international climate policy, and in particular the "shadow solutions" of Kyoto and Copenhagen. It also casts light on some of the seemingly perpetual problems in our public discourse, and on the current push towards geoengineering. Finally, it suggests a need for better public ethics. We must work harder on articulating the ethical problem, and moral constraints on solutions. In the meantime, there is a role for "defensive" moral and political philosophy, aimed at preserving the quality of public discourse.

Stephen Gardiner is Associate Professor in the Department of Philosophy and the Program on Values in Society, University of Washington, Seattle.

Preface
Acknowledgements
Introduction: A Global Environmental Tragedy
I. Some Assumptions
II. Introducing the Perfect Storm Metaphor
III. Climate Change
IV. The Wider Relevance of the Model
V. Outline of the Book
Part A: Overview
1. A Perfect Moral Storm
I. Why Ethics?
II. The Global Storm
III. The Intergenerational Storm
IV. The Theoretical Storm
V. The Problem of Moral Corruption
2. A Consumption Tragedy
I. What is the Point of Game Theory
II. Motivating the Models
III. A Green Energy Revolution?
IV. Consumption and Happiness
Part B: The Global Storm
3. Somebody Else's Problem
I. Past Climate Policy
II. Somebody Else's Burden
III. Against Optimism
IV. Conclusion
4. In the Shadow of a Common Tragedy
I. Climate Prisoners?
II. An Evolving Tragedy
III. Beyond Pessimism
IV. Lingering Tragedy
V. Climate Policy in the Shadows
VI. Conclusion
Part C: The Intergenerational Storm
5. The Tyranny of the Contemporary
I. Problems with 'Generations'
II. Intergenerational Buck-Passing
III. Intergenerational Buck-Passing vs. The Prisoner's Dilemma
IV. The Features of the Pure Intergenerational Problem
V. Applications and Complications
VI. Mitigating Factors
VII. The Non-Identity Problem: A Quick Aside
VIII. Against Undermining
IX. Conclusion
6. An Intergenerational Arms Race?
I. Abrupt Climate Change
II. Three Causes of Political Inertia
III. Against Undermining
IV. Conclusion
Part D: The Theoretical Storm
7. A Global Test for Political Institutions and Theories
I. The Global Test
II. Scenarios
III. A Conjecture
IV. Theoretical Vices
V. An Illustration: Utilitarianism
VI. Understanding the Complaint
VII. Conclusion
8. Cost-Benefit Analysis
I. Cost-Benefit Analysis in Normal Contexts
II. CBA for Climate Change
III. The Presumption Against Discounting
IV. The Basic Economics of the Discount Rate
V. Discounting the Rich?
VI. Declining Discount Rates
VII. Two Objections to "Not Discounting"
VIII. The "Devil's in the Details" Argument
IX. Conclusions
Part E: Moral Corruption
9. Jane Austen vs. Climate Economics
I. Corruption
II. The Dubious Dashwoods: Initial Parallels
III. The Opening Assault on the Status of the Moral Claim
IV. The Assault on Content
V. Indirect Attacks
VI. The Moral of the Story
10. Geoengineering in an Atomosphere of Evil
I. An Idea that is Changing the World
II. The Problem of Political Inertia Revisited
III. Two Preliminary Arguments: Cost and "Research First"?
IV. Arming the Future
V. Arm the Present?
VI. Evolving the Shadows
VII. Underestimating 'Evil'
VIII. An Atmosphere of Evil?
IX. "Should We Do It?"
Part F: What Now?
Conclusion: The Immediate Future
Postscript: Some Initial Ethics of the Transition
I. Introduction
II. The Ethics of Skepticism
III. Past Emissions
IV. Future Emissions
V. Responsibility
VI. Ideal Theory
VII. Conclusion
Appendices
Appendix 1: The Population Theory.
I. Hardin's Analysis
II. Population as a Tragedy of the Commons
III. Total Environmental Impact
IV. Conclusion
Appendix 2: Epistemic Corruption and Scientific Uncertainty in Michael Crichton's State of Fear.
I. What the Scientists Know
II. Certainty, Guesswork and the Missing Middle
III. Conclusion