Lewis G. Irwin is an assistant professor of public policy and political science at Duquesne University.
Figures and Tables
x
Preface
xi
Acknowledgments
xv
Note for Instructors
xvii
1. The Scientific Method, Social Science, and Policy Analysis
3
(32)
1.1 Nested Challenges
3
(3)
1.2 The Scientific Method
6
(7)
1.3 Social Science and the Challenge of Uncertainty
13
(3)
1.4 Empirical Analysis and Normative Concerns
16
(3)
1.5 The Goals of Policy Analysis
19
(2)
1.6 The Limits of Rationality
21
(2)
1.7 Other Challenges for the Policy Analyst
23
(1)
1.8 The General Analytical Framework
24
(3)
1.9 Notes and Supplementary Readings
27
(8)
2. Defining the Problem
35
(16)
2.1 The Problem Definition
35
(2)
2.2 Is There Really a Problem?
37
(1)
2.3 An Iterative Process
38
(1)
2.4 Thinking Ahead to the Analytic Technique
39
(1)
2.5 Critical Elements of the Precise Problem Definition
40
(2)
2.6 The Policy-making Process and the Problem Definition
42
(3)
2.7 Notes and Supplementary Readings
45
(6)
3. Generating Potential Courses of Action
51
(11)
3.1 Where Do We Find Solutions?
51
(2)
3.2 The Status Quo
53
(1)
3.3 Selecting the Short List
54
(3)
3.4 Defining the Alternatives Up Front
57
(1)
3.5 Transitioning to the Analysis of the Alternatives
58
(1)
3.6 Notes and Supplementary Readings
59
(3)
4. Cost-Benefit Analysis
62
(15)
4.1 The Sole Criterion
62
(3)
4.2 Identifying the Advantages and Disadvantages
65
(1)
4.3 Data Collection and Assumptions
66
(2)
4.4 Predicting Costs and Benefits
68
(2)
4.5 Net Benefits as Probabilities
70
(1)
4.6 Sensitivity and Assumption Analysis
71
(2)
4.7 Notes and Supplementary Readings
73
(4)
5. Multi-Attribute Analysis
77
(11)
5.1 Multiple Criteria and Normative Concerns
77
(1)
5.2 Identifying the Advantages and Disadvantages
78
(1)
5.3 Criteria Selection and Weighting
79
(2)
5.4 Data Collection and Assumptions
81
(1)
5.5 Assessing Criteria Values
82
(1)
5.6 Tallying the Results
83
(2)
5.7 Sensitivity and Assumption Analysis
85
(1)
5.8 Notes and Supplementary Readings
85
(3)
6. Articulating the Recommendation
88
(8)
6.1 The Elements of an Effective Recommendation
88
(2)
6.2 Articulating Your Recommendation
90
(1)
6.3 Decision Maker Considerations
91
(1)
6.4 Your Ego and Your Position
92
(1)
6.5 Notes and Supplementary Readings
93
(3)
7. Implementation and Beyond
96
(7)
7.1 Implementation
96
(1)
7.2 Supervision
97
(1)
7.3 Reassessment
98
(1)
7.4 Notes and Supplementary Readings
99
(4)
Bibliography
103
(4)
Index
107
(4)
About the Author
111
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