The Politics of Modelling Numbers Between Science and Policy

Monica Di Fiore, Researcher, National Research Council of Italy, Institute for Cognitive Sciences and Technologies,Andrea Saltelli, Academic Counsellor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona School of Management

Andrea Saltelli is based at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. His most recent papers have tackled sensitivity analysis and auditing, the ecological footprint, the future of statistics, the rationale of evidence-based policy, the crisis of science and the post-truth discussion. Andrea gives courses in sensitivity analysis, sensitivity auditing, science integrity, and the ethics of quantification. He has recently published on the role of science in processes of regulatory capture.


Monica Di Fiore is a researcher at the Institute for Cognitive Sciences and Technologies of the Italian National Research Council (CNR) of Rome. She has dealt with innovation and social acceptance of technologies.
Her most recent work focuses on open science and responsible research and innovation, the reproducibility crisis, science-based normative capture, and the sociology and ethics of quantification. She recently contributed to a manifesto published by Nature on the quality of mathematical models.

Foreword, Wendy Espeland
Preface: The Sciences of Modelling Through, Dan Sarewitz
1. Introduction, Monica Di Fiore and Andrea Saltelli
2. Pay No Attention to the Model Behind the Curtain, Philip Stark
3. Mind the Assumptions: Assess Uncertainty and Sensitivity, Emanuele Borgonovo
4. Mind the Hubris: Complexity Can Misfire, Arnald Puy And Andrea Saltelli
5. Mind the Framing-Match Purpose and Context, Monica Di Fiore, Marta Kuc-Czarnecka, Samuele Lo Piano, Arnald Puy and Andrea Saltelli
6. Mind the Consequences: Quantification in Economic and Public Policy, Wolfgang Drechsler, Lukas Fuchs
7. Mind the Unknown: Acknowledge Ignorance, Andy Stirling
8. Opening up the Modelling Process: Sensitivity Auditing, Samuele Lo Piano, Razi Sheikholeslami, Arnald Puy and Andrea Saltelli
9. Mind the Unknowns: Mathematical Modelling, Rulemaking, and the COVID-19 Pandemic, Ting Xu
10. Lessons From Composite Indicators, Marta Kuc-Czarnecka and Andrea Saltelli
11. In The Twilight of Probability: The Dilemma of the Decision-Maker, Paolo Vineis and Luca Savarino
12. For a Better Hermeneutics of Modelling, Jerome R. Ravetz