Power Transitions

By succinctly integrating power transition theory and national policy, this outstanding team of scholars explores emerging issues in world politics in the 21st century, including proliferation and deterrence, the international political economy, regional hierarchies, and the role of alliances. Blending quantitative and traditional analyses, theory and practice, history and informed predictions, Power Transitions draws a map of the new world that will stimulate, provoke, and offer solutions.Authors include: Mark Abdollohian, Carole Alsharabati, Brian Efird, Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Allan C. Stam III, Ronald L. Tammen, and A.F.K Organski.

List of Figures

ix

Preface

xi

Acknowledgments

xv

A Tribute to A.F.K. Organski

xvii

Part I Foundations

Power Transition Theory for the Twenty-first Century

3

(41)

The Search for New Explanations

4

(2)

The Structure of Power Transition Theory

6

(4)

Dynamics of Satisfaction and Dissatisfaction

10

(5)

Dynamics of Power

15

(6)

Why Conflict Arises in the International System

21

(12)

The Management of World Politics

33

(9)

Conclusions and Projections

42

(2)

Power Transition Theory Tested in The Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries

44

(19)

Evolution of the International System Since 1815

45

(13)

Conclusions and Projections

58

(5)

Part II Applications

Regional Applications: Multiple Hierarchies

63

(19)

Multiple Hierarchies in World Politics

64

(2)

The Multiple Hierarchy Model

66

(5)

Regional Analyses of the Multiple Hierarchy Model

71

(3)

Dynamics of Regional Transitions

74

(3)

The Diffusion of War

77

(2)

Conclusions and Policy Implications

79

(3)

Security Applications: Deterrence and Proliferation

82

(25)

The Costs of Nuclear War

83

(1)

The Structure of Deterrence

84

(10)

The Dynamics of Deterrence

94

(3)

Nuclear Proliferation and the Likelihood of War

97

(6)

The Case of Ballistic Missile Defense

103

(1)

Conclusions and Policy Implications

104

(3)

Economic Applications: Growth, Trade, and Democracy

107

(28)

The Politics of Security and Economics

107

(2)

The Status Quo and International Political Economy

109

(4)

Power Transition and Economic Policies

113

(9)

Economic Growth and Regime Change

122

(3)

Integration

125

(3)

Economic Consequences of War

128

(2)

Conclusions and Policy Implications

130

(5)

Part III Policy Challenges

The Realignment Challenge: The Expansion of NATO

135

(18)

Power Transitions and the Expansion of NATO

135

(1)

Russia's Options

136

(4)

Managing Russian Entry into NATO

140

(6)

Managing the Chinese Reaction

146

(4)

Conclusions: The Future of NATO

150

(3)

The Asian Challenge

153

(29)

Managing Power: The Primacy of China

153

(3)

The Dynamics of China's Power Transition

156

(1)

Managing the Transition

157

(1)

Engineering Satisfaction with ``Realignment''

158

(9)

Controlling Territorial Flashpoints

167

(8)

Reengineering Power Distributions

175

(1)

Managing Power: The Emergence of India

176

(3)

Conclusions: China, India, and the United States

179

(3)

The World to Come

182

(13)

The State of the World

182

(7)

The Next International Period

189

(6)

Notes

195

(22)

Bibliography

217

(20)

Index

237

(6)

About the Authors

243

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Summary

Table of Contents

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