Predictable Surprises

Even the best-run companies can be blindsided by disasters they should have anticipated. These predictable surprises range from financial scandals to operational disruptions, from organizational upheavals to product failures.

Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. He is also formally affiliated with the Kennedy School of Government, the Harvard Psychology Department, and the Program on Negotiation Michael D. Watkins is Professor of General Management at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland, and confounder of Genesis Advisers, a leadership development company

Preface	p. vii
Acknowledgments	p. xv
What is a Predictable Surprise?: A Preview	p. 1
Prototypes of Predictable Surprises	p. 13
September 11: The Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise	p. 15
The Collapse of Enron and the Failure of Auditor Independence	p. 43
Why Don't We Act on What We Know?	p. 69
Cognitive Roots: The Role of Human Biases	p. 71
Organizational Roots: The Role of Institutional Failures	p. 95
Political Roots: The Role of Special-Interest Groups	p. 121
Preventing Predictable Surprises	p. 153
Recognition: Identifying Emerging Threats Earlier	p. 157
Prioritization: Focusing on the Right Problems	p. 179
Mobilization: Building Support for Preventative Action	p. 203
Future Predictable Surprises	p. 225
General Accounting Office Reports Warning of Aviation Security Weaknesses, 1994-2001	p. 259
Ten Elements of an Effective Crisis-Response Plan	p. 263
Notes	p. 267
Further Reading	p. 301
Index	p. 303
About the Authors	p. 319
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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