3 The Propositions and Evidence of Surge and Decline
40
(27)
4 The Theory of the Midterm Referendum
67
(20)
Part 2. The Presidential Pulse
87
(171)
5 The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline
87
(29)
6 Evidence from National Elections
116
(27)
7 Evidence in Congressional Districts
143
(29)
8 Evidence in the Electorate
172
(17)
9 Surge and Decline in Subpresidential Elections
189
(18)
10 The Presidential Pulse in the 1990s
207
(27)
11 Reflections on the Presidential Pulse
234
(24)
Appendix 1 Presidential Vote and House-Seat Regressions
258
(2)
Appendix 2 Robust Regression of National Evidence
260
(4)
Notes
264
(2)
References
296
(15)
Index
311
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