Productivity Growth, Inflation, and

The 17 seminal essays by Robert J. Gordon collected here, including three previously unpublished works, offer sharply etched views on the principal topics of macroeconomics - growth, inflation, and unemployment. The author re-examines their salient points in a uniquely creative, accessible introduction that serves on its own as an introduction to modern macroeconomics. Each of the four parts into which the essays are grouped also offers a new introduction. The papers in Part I explore different key aspects of the history, theory, and measurement of productivity growth. The essays in Part II investigate the sources of business cycles and productivity fluctuations. Those in Part III cover the effects of supply shocks in macroeconomics. The final group presents empirical studies of the dynamics of inflation in the United States. The foreword by Nobel Laureate Robert M. Solow comments on the abiding importance of these essays drawn from 1968 to the present.

Foreword by Robert M. Solow

ix

Preface

xi

Introduction

1

(6)

PART ONE. THE HISTORY, THEORY, AND MEASUREMENT OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

7

(212)

Part One: Introduction

7

(15)

1. Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?

22

(28)

2. Interpreting the "One Big Wave" in U.S. Long-term Productivity Growth

50

(40)

3. The Disappearance of Productivity Change

90

(44)

4. The Concept of Capital

134

(9)

5. Is There a Tradeoff between Unemployment and Productivity Growth?

143

(29)

6. Forward into the Past: Productivity Retrogression in the Electric Generating Industry

172

(47)

PART TWO. INTERPRETING PRODUCTIVITY FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

219

(86)

Part Two: Introduction

219

(7)

7. Fresh Water, Salt Water, and Other Macroeconomic Elixirs

226

(13)

8. Are Procyclical Productivity Fluctuations a Figment of Measurement Error?

239

(34)

9. The Jobless Recovery: Does It Signal a New Era of Productivity-Led Growth?

273

(32)

PART THREE. THE THEORY OF THE INFLATION-UNEMPLOYMENT TRADEOFF

305

(54)

Part Three: Introduction

305

(8)

10. Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks

313

(19)

11. Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy Revisited

332

(8)

12. The Theory of Domestic Inflation

340

(9)

13. The Phillips Curve Now and Then

349

(10)

PART FOUR. EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF INFLATION DYNAMICS IN THE UNITED STATES

359

(130)

Part Four: Introduction

359

(8)

14. Can the Inflation of the 1970s be Explained?

367

(22)

15. The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models

389

(31)

with Stephen R. King

16. German and American Wage and Price Dynamics: Differences and Common Themes

420

(37)

with Wolfgang Franz

17. Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU

457

(32)

Subject Index

489

(12)

Author index

501

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Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon

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