Real Estate and Globalisation

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ISBN: 9780470655979 | 0470655976
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 4/9/2012

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Presented here is a series of briefings on the effect of globalisation and the importance of macro-economics and geo-politics in real estate research. Together they offer unique insights, new ideas and practical approaches to real estate analysis, grounded in the day-to-day realities of running of a property company. The research was conducted by economists who are professionally competent in micro and macro economics so the output is of a high standard. The topics often address the relationship between real estate and the macro economy - an area not well treated by academics. After an introduction detailing the practicalities of doing real estate research, the research topics are grouped into the following broad themes: macro-economic influences on real estate performance; office markets; retail property; residential property; yields and investors; and occupiers and rents. Topics cover all commercial property - office, retail and residential - in over 40 countries. The focus is on the private sector, though there is also discussion on the relationship between public and private sectors. Real Estate and Globalisation has two strong unifying themes - the effect of globalisation; and the importance of macro-economics and geo-politics in real estate research - running throughout. The author provides full commentary on each topic, giving the context and the implications for strategy.

Foreword	p. xi
Preface	p. xiii
Acknowledgements	p. xv
Introduction	p. 1
A remarkable decade for real estate	p. 1
Based on a flawed global economic model	p. 12
The real estate research agenda	p. 17
Background to this book	p. 18
Macro-economics and real estate	p. 21
Impact of the recession on US property markets – evidence so far (November 2001)	p. 24
State of global property going into 2004 (January 2004)	p. 26
Is the global recovery running out of steam? (November 2004)	p. 28
The outlook for private business investment in 2010 (January 2010)	p. 31
Are we heading towards global deflation? (December 2001)	p. 34
Deflationary conditions may be already present in parts of the West (October 2002)	p. 35
Are buoyant asset markets enough to stimulate recovery? (March 2010)	p. 37
Has the global economy passed its worst? (July 2001)	p. 40
How will rising interest rates impact real estate markets? (January 2011)	p. 43
Is the USA really in recovery? (December 2002)	p. 45
Investment could lead the recovery – but not yet (July 2003)	p. 48
UK savings rates have recovered, but the USA still looks out of balance (September 2002)	p. 49
How to save the world: by not saving (December 2009)	p. 51
Events to watch – is OPEC about to set off a second oil crisis? (October 2000)	p. 54
How is this oil shock different from the 1970s? (October 2005)	p. 56
Global financial markets – remaining challenges to a sustained recovery (August 2010)	p. 58
The Euro finally arrives – but will that make much of a difference? (January 2002)	p. 61
Germany (April 2002)	p. 62
Germany’s economic situation (April 2003)	p. 64
Real estate and recessions	p. 67
An overheated housing market may cloud the Spanish economic landscape? (November 2006)	p. 69
When will the US housing market turn? (January 2009)	p. 72
The sub-prime storm – impact on Europe (October 2007)	p. 75
A year on: the sub-prime crisis from a Spanish perspective (August 2008)	p. 78
Global headwinds – US real estate debt (February 2010)	p. 81
How close are we to a new 'Great Depression'? (October 2008)	p. 83
Printing money – will it work? (April 2009)	p. 86
Are recessions bad for real estate? (February 2008)	p. 89
Inflation and real estate	p. 93
Does property provide a hedge against inflation? (September 2009)	p. 96
Linking rents to construction cost inflation – the French case (March 2008)	p. 98
Oil prices, inflation and real estate (July 2008)	p. 101
Is inflation building up in the world economy? (June 2010)	p. 104
Can oil prices cause a global inflation problem? (June 2004)	p. 107
Are food prices driving inflation up? (December 2007)	p. 108
Real wages and real estate in the UK (February 2011)	p. 111
Retailing and retail property	p. 115
Splitting retail property into food and non-food can increase portfolio performance (November 2003)	p. 118
A prosperous future for UK shopping places? (December 2006)	p. 120
Examining European retail rents (January 2006)	p. 123
Perspective on international retail (October 2001)	p. 126
Consumer confidence and consumer spending (June 2003)	p. 129
The outlook for UK retail (August 2009)	p. 130
USA retail outlook (August 2004)	p. 133
What will an end to the run-up in house prices mean for consumer spending? (April 2005)	p. 135
Retail fundamentals (January 2003)	p. 139
US retailing in recession (May 2009)	p. 141
Luxury retailing in Europe (June 2007)	p. 143
State of health in the retail market in continental Europe (October 2009)	p. 146
Property companies and REITs	p. 149
Small investors should wait for the REIT moment to invest in property securities! (January 2007)	p. 151
Listed real estate in a 'perfect storm' – the case of Spain (November 2008)	p. 154
Beta and the cost of capital to the UK property sector (May 2008)	p. 157
Real estate and construction	p. 161
What factors determine construction costs? (March 2006)	p. 163
Is there a global construction boom? (April 2007)	p. 165
UK construction costs and the recession (March 2006)	p. 167
Asia	p. 173
China/WTO (January 2002)	p. 176
Chinese currency reform (December 2004)	p. 178
What’s the outlook for the Chinese economy? (June 2009)	p. 179
Will China’s problematic inflation subside? (June 2008)	p. 182
Is real estate in China heading for a hard landing? (March 2011)	p. 184
What’s happening to Japan? (March 2004)	p. 188
Japan capital values (September 2004)	p. 190
Bank of Japan ends quantitative easing – the impact on property will be neutral (April 2006)	p. 193
The growing significance of Asia-Pacific real estate (November 2007)	p. 195
Real Estate Returns	p. 199
Do investors care about the standard deviation of property investment returns? (July 2009)	p. 201
Returns and capitalisation rates in US real estate (August 2006)	p. 203
The economics of global property returns (May 2007)	p. 207
Does gearing work? (October 2010)	p. 210
Residential real estate	p. 213
The potential for investment in European residential property property (September 2007)	p. 216
Investment opportunities in US housing (July 2010)	p. 219
Trends in owner-occupied residential prices and not always a guide to value trends in the investment sector (August 2003)	p. 221
How important is confidence in the Asian luxury residential market? (October 2002)	p. 224
Luxury residential – the tale of three cities (September 2005)	p. 225
What drives Prime Central London residential prices? (September 2006)	p. 227
US home prices looking more exposed (August 2005)	p. 230
Why do commentators continue to talk of a UK housing crash that never seems to come? (June 2002)	p. 231
Australian residential outlook – as safe as houses? (December 2010)	p. 233
Australian residential prices – city trends drive performance (October 2006)	p. 236
Yields	p. 241
How far can yields move out? (January 2008)	p. 244
Bond yields, real estate markets and globalisation (May 2010)	p. 247
Cross-country determinants of investment yields (March 2005)	p. 250
How does the risk of rising interest rates affect property yields and expectations for property performance? (February 2006)	p. 252
Can movements in corporate bond yields tell us anything about movements in property yields? (December 2005)	p. 255
Capital flows to emerging markets (May 2006)	p. 257
Real estate investment yields – bouncing up or down? (January 2005)	p. 260
Signs of change in the investment market? (January 2003)	p. 262
Lease flexibility and income security in international property markets (February 2004)	p. 264
Impact of tighter regulations on bank lending (November 2009)	p. 266
Appendix: Modelling Global Real Estate Yields (November 2008)	p. 270
Global office markets	p. 297
Just how rewarding is office sector investment? (February 2003)	p. 300
Supply-constrained office markets do deliver stronger rental growth – but not always (January 2004)	p. 302
Europe’s largest office markets are set to lead the recovery (April 2004)	p. 303
Supply risk in international office markets (June 2005)	p. 307
Office markets and the global economy (April 2008)	p. 307
Can local office markets buck international market trends? (July 2003)	p. 311
Euro zone convergence – economic myth and property reality (June 2006)	p. 312
Convergence continued – the US case (July 2006)	p. 314
Does income inequality affect office rents? (November 2005)	p. 318
Looking forward	p. 321
The case for increased pension fund allocation to real estate (September 2010)	p. 331
Index	p. 335
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