Reliability Prediction and Testing Textbook

This textbook reviews the methodologies of reliability prediction as currently used in industries such as electronics, automotive, aircraft, aerospace, off-highway, farm machinery, and others. It then discusses why these are not successful; and, presents methods developed by the authors for obtaining accurate information for successful prediction. The approach is founded on approaches that accurately duplicate the real world use of the product. Their approach is based on two fundamental components needed for successful reliability prediction; first, the methodology necessary; and, second, use of accelerated reliability and durability testing as a source of the necessary data.

Applicable to all areas of engineering, this textbook details the newest techniques and tools to achieve successful reliabilityprediction and testing. It demonstrates practical examples of the implementation of the approaches described. This book is a tool for engineers, managers, researchers, in industry, teachers, and students. The reader will learn the importance of the interactions of the influencing factors and the interconnections of safety and human factors in product prediction and testing.

LEV M. KLYATIS, HAB. DR-ING., SCD, PHD, is a Senior Advisor at SoHaR, Inc.and the author of Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology. His vast experience and innovations enabled him to create and implement a new direction for the solution of reliability and other components of performance problems. He holds over thirty patents worldwide, and is the author of hundreds of publications.

EDWARD L. ANDERSON, P.E. Ed has over 35 years experience with the Port Authority of NY & NJ as an Automotive Engineer. He is a graduate of Newark College of Engineering with a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering; a Master's Degree in Health and Safety Engineering; and, and a Post Master's Certificate from Dowling College in Total Quality Management. He is a Professional Engineer and is active in SAE International and the Elmer A Sperry Board of Award.

Preface xi
LevM. Klyatis and Edward L. Anderson

About the Authors xix

Introduction xxiii
LevM. Klyatis

1 Analysis of Current Practices in Reliability Prediction 1
LevM. Klyatis

1.1 Overview of Current Situation in Methodological Aspects of Reliability Prediction 1

1.1.1 What is a Potential Failure Mode? 5

1.1.2 General Model 6

1.1.3 Classical Test Theory 6

1.1.4 Estimation 7

1.1.5 Reliability Prediction for Mean Time Between Failures 9

1.1.6 About Reliability Software 9

1.1.6.1 MIL-HDBK-217 Predictive Method 10

1.1.6.2 Bellcore/Telcordia Predictive Method 11

1.1.6.3 Discussion of Empirical Methods 11

1.1.7 Physics of Failure Methods 12

1.1.7.1 Arrhenius’s Law 12

1.1.7.2 Eyring and Other Models 12

1.1.7.3 Hot Carrier Injection Model 13

1.1.7.4 Black Model for Electromigration 14

1.1.7.5 Discussion of Physics of Failure Methods 14

1.1.8 Life Testing Method 15

1.1.8.1 Conclusions 15

1.1.8.2 Failure of the Old Methods 17

1.1.9 Section Summary 23

1.2 Current Situation in Practical Reliability Prediction 24

1.3 From History of Reliability Prediction Development 27

1.4 Why Reliability Prediction is Not Effectively Utilized in Industry 30

References 35

Exercises 40

2 Successful Reliability Prediction for Industry 43
LevM. Klyatis

2.1 Introduction 43

2.2 Step-by-Step Solution for Practical Successful Reliability Prediction 46

2.3 Successful Reliability Prediction Strategy 48

2.4 The Role of Accurate Definitions in Successful Reliability Prediction: Basic Definitions 49

2.5 Successful Reliability Prediction Methodology 53

2.5.1 Criteria of Successful Reliability Prediction Using Results of Accelerated Reliability Testing 53

2.5.2 Development of Techniques for Product Reliability Prediction Using Accelerated Reliability Testing Results 63

2.5.2.1 Basic Concepts of Reliability Prediction 63

2.5.2.2 Prediction of the Reliability Function without Finding the Accurate Analytical or Graphical Form of the Failures’ Distribution Law 64

2.5.2.3 Prediction Using Mathematical Models Without Indication of the Dependence Between Product Reliability and Different Factors of Manufacturing and Field Usage 65

2.5.2.4 Practical Example 68

References 70

Exercises 71

3 Testing as a Source of Initial Information for Successful Practical Reliability Prediction 75
LevM. Klyatis

3.1 How the Testing Strategy Impacts the Level of Reliability Prediction 75

3.2 The Role of Field Influences on Accurate Simulation 80

3.3 Basic Concepts of Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology 83

3.4 Why Separate Simulation of Input Influences is not Effective in Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing 88

References 96

Exercises 97

4 Implementation of Successful Reliability Testing and Prediction 101
LevM. Klyatis

4.1 Direct Implementation: Financial Results 102

4.1.1 Cost-Effective Test Subject Development and Improvement 107

4.1.1.1 Example 1 108

4.1.1.2 Example 2 109

4.2 Standardization as a Factor in the Implementation of Reliability Testing and Prediction 110

4.2.1 Implementation of Reliability Testing and Successful Reliability Prediction through the Application of Standard EP-456 “Test and Reliability Guidelines” for Farm Machinery 110

4.2.2 How the Work in SAE G-11 Division, Reliability Committee Assisted in Implementing Accelerated Reliability Testing as a Component of Successful Reliability Prediction 111

4.2.3 Development and Implementation of Reliability Testing during the Work for the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), USA Representative for International Organization for Standardization (ISO), Reliability and Risk (IEC/ISO Joint Study Group) 149

4.3 Implementing Reliability Testing and Prediction through Presentations, Publications, Networking as Chat with the Experts, Boards, Seminars,Workshops/Symposiums Over the World 155

4.4 Implementation of Reliability Prediction and Testing through Citations and Book Reviews of Lev Klyatis’s Work Around the World 183

4.5 Why Successful Product Prediction Reliability has not been Widely Embraced by Industry 193

References 194

Exercises 195

5 Reliability and Maintainability Issues with Low-Volume, Custom, and Special-Purpose Vehicles and Equipment 197
Edward L. Anderson

5.1 Introduction 197

5.2 Characteristics of Low-Volume, Custom, and Special-Purpose Vehicles and Equipment 200

5.2.1 Product Research 202

5.2.2 Vendor Strength 203

5.2.3 Select a Mature Product 203

5.2.4 Develop a Strong Purchase Contract 203

5.2.5 Establish a Symbiotic Relationship 204

5.2.6 Utilize Consensus Standards 204

5.2.7 User Groups/Professional Societies 205

5.2.8 Prerequisites 205

5.2.9 Extended Warranties 206

5.2.10 Defect/Failure Definitions/Remedies 206

5.2.11 Pre-Award and/or Preproduction Meetings 207

5.2.12 Variation 208

5.2.13 Factory Inspections 209

5.2.14 Prototype Functional or Performance Testing 210

5.2.15 Acceptance Testing 210

5.2.16 “Lead the Fleet” Utilization 211

5.2.17 Reserves 212

5.2.18 Problem Log 213

5.2.19 Self-Help 213

References 214

Exercises 214

6 Exemplary Models of Programs and Illustrations for Professional Learning in Reliability Prediction and Accelerated Reliability Testing 217
LevM. Klyatis

6.1 Examples of the Program 217

6.1.1 Example 1. Several Days’ Course: “Successful Prediction of Product Reliability and Necessary Testing” 217

6.1.2 Example 2. One-Day Course “Methodology of Reliability Prediction” 218

6.1.3 Example 3. One–Two Days’ Course (or tutorial) “Accelerated Reliability and Durability Testing Technology as Source of Obtaining Information for Successful Reliability Prediction” 219

6.1.4 Example 4. One–Two Days’ Seminar “Foundation for Designing Successful Accelerated Testing” 219

6.2 Illustrations for these and Other Programs in Reliability Prediction and Testing 220

6.2.1 Examples: Text for the Slides 220

6.2.2 Examples of Figures 228

Index 243

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