Risk Analysis Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities

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ISBN: 9780470517369 | 0470517360
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 5/19/2008

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In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications. It features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil and gas, and ICT (Information and Communication Technology).

Preface	p. ix
Theory and methods	p. 1
What is a risk analysis?	p. 3
Why risk analysis?	p. 5
Risk management	p. 6
Decision-making under uncertainty	p. 8
Examples: decision situations	p. 13
Risk analysis for a tunnel	p. 13
Risk analysis for an offshore installation	p. 14
Risk analysis related to a cash depot	p. 14
What is risk?	p. 17
Vulnerability	p. 21
How to describe risk quantitatively	p. 22
Description of risk in a financial context	p. 24
Description of risk in a safety context	p. 25
The risk analysis process: planning	p. 29
Problem definition	p. 29
Selection of analysis method	p. 34
Checklist-based approach	p. 35
Risk-based approach	p. 36
The risk analysis process: risk assessment	p. 39
Identification of initiating events	p. 39
Cause analysis	p. 40
Consequence analysis	p. 41
Probabilities and uncertainties	p. 43
Risk picture: Risk presentation	p. 44
Sensitivity and robustness analyses	p. 48
Risk evaluation	p. 49
The risk analysis process: risk treatment	p. 51
Comparisons of alternatives	p. 51
How to assess measures?	p. 53
Management review and judgement	p. 55
Risk analysis methods	p. 57
Coarse risk analysis	p. 57
Job safety analysis	p. 62
Failure modes and effects analysis	p. 64
Strengths and weaknesses of an FMEA	p. 69
Hazard and operability studies	p. 70
SWIFT	p. 71
Fault tree analysis	p. 72
Qualitative analysis	p. 74
Quantitative analysis	p. 76
Event tree analysis	p. 78
Barrier block diagrams	p. 80
Bayesian networks	p. 80
Monte Carlo simulation	p. 83
Examples of applications	p. 85
Safety measures for a road tunnel	p. 87
Planning	p. 87
Problem definition	p. 87
Selection of analysis method	p. 88
Risk assessment	p. 88
Identification of initiating events	p. 88
Cause analysis	p. 90
Consequence analysis	p. 90
Risk picture	p. 94
Risk treatment	p. 95
Comparison of alternatives	p. 95
Management review and decision	p. 95
Risk analysis process for an offshore installation	p. 97
Planning	p. 97
Problem definition	p. 97
Selection of analysis method	p. 98
Risk analysis	p. 98
Hazard identification	p. 98
Cause analysis	p. 98
Consequence analysis	p. 100
Risk picture and comparison of alternatives	p. 103
Management review and judgement	p. 104
Production assurance	p. 105
Planning	p. 105
Risk analysis	p. 105
Identification of failures	p. 105
Cause analysis	p. 106
Consequence analysis	p. 106
Risk picture and comparison of alternatives	p. 108
Management review and judgement Decision	p. 109
Risk analysis process for a cash depot	p. 111
Planning	p. 111
Problem definition	p. 111
Selection of analysis method	p. 112
Risk analysis	p. 113
Identification of hazards and threats	p. 113
Cause analysis	p. 113
Consequence analysis	p. 116
Risk picture	p. 118
Risk-reducing measures	p. 120
Relocation of the NOKAS facility	p. 120
Erection of a wall	p. 121
Management review and judgment Decision	p. 121
Discussion	p. 122
Risk analysis process for municipalities	p. 123
Planning	p. 123
Problem definition	p. 123
Selection of analysis method	p. 124
Risk assessment	p. 124
Hazard and threat identification	p. 124
Cause and consequence analysis Risk picture	p. 125
Risk treatment	p. 128
Risk analysis process for the entire enterprise	p. 131
Planning	p. 131
Problem definition	p. 131
Selection of analysis method	p. 132
Risk analysis	p. 132
Price risk	p. 132
Operational risk	p. 135
Health, Environment and Safety (HES)	p. 137
Reputation risk	p. 138
Overall risk picture	p. 140
Risk treatment	p. 141
Discussion	p. 143
Risk analysis as a decision support tool	p. 143
Risk is more than the calculated probabilities and expected values	p. 144
Risk analysis has both strengths and weaknesses	p. 145
Precision of a risk analysis: uncertainty and sensitivity analysis	p. 145
Tenninology	p. 147
Risk acceptance criteria (tolerability limits)	p. 149
Reflection on approaches, methods and results	p. 152
Limitations of the causal chain approach	p. 152
Risk perspectives	p. 154
Scientific basis	p. 157
The implications of the limitations of risk assessment	p. 159
Critical systems and activities	p. 161
Conclusions	p. 166
Probability calculus and statistics	p. 167
The meaning of a probability	p. 167
Probability calculus	p. 168
Probability distributions: expected value	p. 170
Binomial distribution	p. 171
Statistics (Bayesian statistics)	p. 172
Introduction to reliability analysis	p. 173
Reliability of systems composed of components	p. 173
Production system	p. 175
Safety system	p. 175
Approach for selecting risk analysis methods	p. 177
Expected consequences	p. 177
Uncertainty factors	p. 179
Frame conditions	p. 179
Selection of a specific method	p. 180
Terminology	p. 183
Risk management: relationships between key terms	p. 186
Bibliography	p. 187
Index	p. 193
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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Risk Analysis Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities

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