- ISBN: 9789026519475 | 9026519478
- Cover: Hardcover
- Copyright: 1/1/2003
Acknowledgements | p. X |
The Editors | p. X |
The Contributors | p. XI |
Foreword | p. XIII |
List of Figures | p. XV |
List of Tables | p. XVII |
Introduction | p. 1 |
Introduction | p. 1 |
Setting the Stage | p. 1 |
About this Book | p. 2 |
Geographic Scaling Issues in Integrated Assessments of Climate Change | p. 5 |
How Scale Matters | p. 5 |
Basic Concepts | p. 6 |
Findings to Date | p. 8 |
Elements of a Coherent Story Line About How Scale Matters | p. 13 |
Operational Issues | p. 18 |
The Principal Alternatives | p. 18 |
The Principal Challenges | p. 21 |
Directions for Improving our Capabilities | p. 27 |
References | p. 29 |
Micro/Macro and Soft/Hard: Diverging and Converging Issues in the Physical and Social Sciences | p. 35 |
Abstract | p. 35 |
Acknowledgements | p. 35 |
Introduction and Overview | p. 36 |
Scales in the Social Sciences: Mixing Levels or What is the Difference? | p. 37 |
Scales in the Physical Sciences: the Climate System | p. 40 |
There is Nothing as Practical as a Good Theory | p. 43 |
The Differences that Make a Difference: Scales in Climate Change and Climate Impact Research | p. 45 |
Conclusions | p. 46 |
References | p. 47 |
Scale and Scope in Integrated Assessment: Lessons from Ten Years with ICAM | p. 51 |
Abstract | p. 51 |
Acknowledgements | p. 51 |
Introduction | p. 52 |
Lessons from Developing ICAM | p. 54 |
Questions, Scope and Scale | p. 56 |
Perceptions, Impacts and Adaptation | p. 62 |
Sea Level Rise Revisited | p. 65 |
Energy Markets and Technological Progress | p. 67 |
Scale, the Study of Climate Policy and its Evolution | p. 69 |
Conclusions on Scope and Scale | p. 71 |
References | p. 72 |
Scaling Issues in the Social Sciences | p. 75 |
Abstract | p. 75 |
Acknowledgements | p. 75 |
Introduction | p. 76 |
Scaling Terminology | p. 77 |
Context of Scale Issues in Social Research | p. 79 |
Scale Issues in Social Science Disciplines | p. 82 |
Scale Issues in Geography | p. 83 |
Scale Issues in Economics | p. 85 |
Scale Issues in Ecological Economics | p. 86 |
Scale Issues in Urban Studies | p. 87 |
Scale Issues in Sociology | p. 87 |
Scale Issues in Political Science and Political Economy | p. 89 |
Scale, Social Science Data Collection, Representation and Analysis | p. 93 |
Social Sciences Methods Addressing Scale | p. 96 |
Contextual Analysis | p. 96 |
Multi-Level Modeling | p. 97 |
Hierarchy Theory | p. 97 |
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem | p. 97 |
Scale, Social Science and Integrated Assessment Modeling | p. 98 |
Conclusion | p. 100 |
References | p. 101 |
Sustainability and Economics: A Matter of Scale? | p. 107 |
Abstract | p. 107 |
Acknowledgements | p. 107 |
Introduction | p. 108 |
Returns to Scale | p. 111 |
Industrial Districts in the World Economy | p. 114 |
Back to the Future | p. 116 |
Conclusion | p. 121 |
References | p. 122 |
Scales in Economic Theory | p. 125 |
Introduction | p. 125 |
Scales and Aggregation | p. 126 |
Space and Aggregation in Ecology | p. 128 |
Space and Aggregation in Economics | p. 129 |
Spatial Resolution and Emerging Patterns of Location Behaviour | p. 131 |
Does Spatial Resolution Matter in Scientific Disciplines that Deal with Space? | p. 131 |
Geography | p. 132 |
Regional Economics | p. 133 |
Conclusion | p. 136 |
References | p. 136 |
Scaling Methods in Regional Integrated Assessments: from Points Upward and from Global Models Downwards | p. 139 |
Acknowledgements | p. 140 |
Introduction | p. 140 |
Scaling Up Impacts | p. 141 |
Site-Driven Approaches | p. 141 |
Uniform Grid Approach | p. 145 |
Spatially Combined: Uniform Grids with Relational Soils | p. 148 |
Spatial Interpolation Approach | p. 154 |
Stochastic Space Approach | p. 158 |
Downscaling | p. 162 |
Overview of Methods | p. 162 |
Issues in Scaling Methods | p. 167 |
Input Data | p. 167 |
Technical Expertise | p. 167 |
Validation | p. 168 |
Uncertainty and Risk | p. 168 |
Stakeholder Participation | p. 169 |
Scaling Agents | p. 169 |
Conclusions | p. 170 |
References | p. 170 |
Strategic Cyclical Scaling: Bridging Five Orders of Magnitude Scale Gaps in Climatic and Ecological Studies | p. 179 |
Scaling Paradigms in Modeling Coupled Systems | p. 179 |
Ecological Responses to Climate Changes as Scaling Examples | p. 183 |
Scaling Analysis of Ecological Responses | p. 187 |
Integrated Assessment via Coupled Socio-Natural Systems Models | p. 193 |
Conclusions | p. 197 |
References | p. 198 |
The Syndromes Approach to Scaling | p. 205 |
Abstract | p. 205 |
Dealing with Global Change--The Scaling Problem as One Crucial Aspect of Complexity and Uncertainty | p. 205 |
Idealistic Deduction Versus Realistic Induction | p. 207 |
Syndromes II: Modelling, Spatial and Functional Scale of Validity | p. 216 |
Qualitative Differential Equations--Formalizing Coarse Functional Scales | p. 216 |
General Hazardous Functional Patterns and Detailed Local Case Studies | p. 221 |
The Extended Sahel HFP and Spatial Distribution of Time Behaviours | p. 227 |
Concluding Remarks | p. 230 |
Important Terms of the Syndrome Concept | p. 232 |
Symbols Used for the Graphical Representation of Qualitative Models | p. 232 |
References | p. 234 |
Polycentric Integrated Assessment | p. 237 |
Abstract | p. 237 |
Introduction | p. 238 |
The Decision Perspective | p. 238 |
Novel Approaches to Decision Making | p. 240 |
The Importance of Scales | p. 243 |
Environment Human Interactions Across Scales | p. 243 |
Climate Change and Water Resource Management from a Scaling Perspective in Time and Space | p. 245 |
Climate Change and Beyond | p. 248 |
Sustainable Management of Water Resources | p. 252 |
Societal Transitions and Lock-in Effects | p. 253 |
Market Based Institutions from Local to Global Scales | p. 255 |
Summary and Challenges for Integrated Assessment | p. 257 |
References | p. 259 |
Emergent Properties of Scale in Global Environmental Modeling--are There Any? | p. 263 |
Abstract | p. 263 |
Scales in Climate Change Impact Assessment | p. 264 |
Human-Environment Systems as Complex and Hierarchical | p. 267 |
Emergence: Real or Imagined? | p. 269 |
Hierarchical Emergence | p. 271 |
Self-Organization as a Dynamical Theoretical Basis for Scale-Related Emergence | p. 275 |
An Application to the Problem of the Vulnerability of the USA Agricultural Production System to Climate Change | p. 278 |
Emergent Properties, Vulnerability and Resilience of Land Use Systems with Environmental Forcing: the Case of Hurricane Mitch and Honduran Agriculture | p. 282 |
Are Issues of Scale and Surprise Connected? | p. 285 |
Conclusion | p. 286 |
References | p. 287 |
Complexity and Scales: the Challenge for Integrated Assessment | p. 293 |
Abstract | p. 293 |
Acknowledgments | p. 293 |
Introduction--The Epistemological Dimension of Complexity | p. 293 |
Holarchies, Non-Equivalent Descriptive Domains, and Non-Reducible Assessments | p. 296 |
Self-Organizing Systems are made of Nested Hierarchies and Therefore Entail Non-Equivalent Descriptive Domains | p. 296 |
Holons, Holarchies and Near-Decomposability of Hierarchical Systems | p. 300 |
The Epistemological Predicaments Implied by the Ambiguous Identity of Holarchies | p. 304 |
Bifurcation, Emergence and Scientific Ignorance | p. 307 |
Non-Reducibility (Multiple Causality) and Incommensurability | p. 312 |
Implications of Complexity and Scales on Integrated Assessment | p. 319 |
The Epistemological Predicament of Sustainability Analysis | p. 319 |
A New Conceptualization of "Sustainable Development": Moving from "Substantial" to "Procedural" Rationality | p. 321 |
Conclusion | p. 323 |
References | p. 324 |
Scaling in Integrated Assessment: Problem or Challenge? | p. 329 |
Introduction | p. 329 |
What is the Problem? | p. 330 |
Scaling in IA-Models | p. 331 |
Grid-Cell Based Modelling | p. 332 |
Cellular Automata Modelling | p. 333 |
Multiple-Scale Regression Modelling | p. 333 |
Scaling in IA-Scenarios | p. 334 |
Agents and Scale | p. 339 |
Uncertainty and Scale | p. 343 |
Is There a Solution? | p. 346 |
Conclusions and Recommendations | p. 350 |
References | p. 352 |
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