The Scientific Study of Peace and War

The contributors of this book suggest methodologies for a systematic analysis of historical examples, using controlled observation, the collection of evidence, and careful inferences.

John A. Vasquez is professor of political science at Vanderbilt University.

Preface

xv

Introduction: Studying War Scientifically

xix

John A. Vasquez

I Factors in the Onset of War

Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers, 1495--1975

3

(34)

Jack S. Levy

Editors' Commentary

30

(7)

Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War 1820--1965

37

(38)

J. David Singer

Stuart Bremer

John Stuckey

Editors' Commentary

67

(8)

Armaments and Escalation: Two Competing Hypotheses

75

(18)

Michael D. Wallace

Editors' Commentary

88

(5)

Arms Races and Escalation: A Closer Look

93

(16)

Paul F. Diehl

Editors' Commentary

103

(6)

When Will They Ever Learn? Coercive Bargaining in Recurrent Crises

109

(32)

Russell J. Leng

Editors' Commentary

136

(5)

Excerpts from The War Trap

141

(20)

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Editors' Commentary

153

(8)

II The Expansion of War

Alliances and the Expansion of War

161

(16)

Randolph M. Siverson

Joel King

Editors' Commentary

173

(4)

Bipolarity and War: The Role of Capability Concentration and Alliance Patterns among Major Powers 1816--1965

177

(28)

Frank Whelon Wayman

Editors' Commentary

201

(4)

Preventing Systemic War: Crisis Decision-Making amidst a Structure of Conflict Relationships

205

(24)

Manus I. Midlarsky

Editors' Commentary

222

(7)

III Peace and the Global Institutional Context

Universalism vs. Particularism: On the Limits of Major Power Order

229

(26)

Peter Wallensteen

Editors' Commentary

249

(6)

IV The Termination and Impact of War

War Power and the Willingness to Suffer

255

(24)

Steven Rosen

Editors' Commentary

273

(6)

The Costs of Major Wars: The Phoenix Factor

279

(32)

A.F.K. Organski

Jacek Kugler

Editors' Commentary

305

(6)

War Making and State Making: Governmental Expenditures, Tax Revenues, and Global Wars

311

(32)

Karen A. Rasler

William R. Thompson

Editors' Commentary

335

(8)

V Conclusion

The Steps to War: Toward a Scientific Explanation of Correlates of War Findings

343

(30)

John A. Vasquez

Editors' Commentary

369

(4)

Appendix Applying the Scientific Method to the Study of War

The Scientific Study of War: A Learning Package

373

(66)

Stuart A. Bremer

Cynthia Cannizzo

Charles W. Kegley, Jr.

James Lee Ray

Bibliographical Essay

439

(8)

References

447

(20)

Index

467

(14)

About the Editors

481

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The Scientific Study of Peace and War

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials