Areas at Risk - Concept and Methods for Urban Flood Risk Assessment

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ISBN: 9783515100922 | 351510092X
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 3/15/2012

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Urban expansion and associated land-use changes increase both flood hazards and exposure. This book provides a conceptual and methodological framework for the analysis of urban flood risk in dynamic and complex settings, and proposes a comprehensive, system-oriented, integrated approach for its assessment.

List of Figures	p. 11
List of Tables	p. 13
List of Abbreviations	p. 15
Introduction	p. 19
Background and problem description	p. 19
Urbanization trends: Chile in a worldwide context	p. 19
The influence of urban expansion on flood risk	p. 20
Floods in Santiago de Chile	p. 22
Research goals and research questions	p. 27
Methodology and structure of the thesis	p. 27
Development of a conceptual risk framework	p. 27
The choice of an appropriate study area	p. 28
The methodologies applied in this research	p. 29
Exchange with stakeholders	p. 31
Disaster risk related terms and concept development	p. 33
A conceptual flood risk framework for a complex urban setting	p. 33
Identification of the components of risk	p. 33
Relation between the components of risk	p. 35
Hazard	p. 36
Elements at risk	p. 36
Vulnerability	p. 37
Exposure and its role in the vulnerability concept	p. 40
Resilience and coping capacities in the vulnerability concept	p. 40
Risk management	p. 41
General approaches to face flood risk	p. 42
Existing flood risk-related research	p. 45
State of research: RS in flood risk analysis	p. 45
State of research: GIS in flood risk analysis	p. 48
State of research: Hydrological modeling for flood risk analysis	p. 49
Land-use/land-cover changes for flood risk reduction	p. 51
Empirical methods	p. 52
Conclusion from the current states of research	p. 53
Description of the study area	p. 55
Human-geographic description	p. 55
Overview about location and administrative boundaries	p. 55
Social structure	p. 57
Urban development	p. 57
Planning institutions, instruments & processes relevant for flood risk	p. 62
Institutions, laws, and instruments in the prevention stage	p. 62
Institutions, laws, and instruments in the mitigation stage	p. 64
Physio-geographic description	p. 65
Geology, Geomorphology, and Soil	p. 66
Climate	p. 68
Hydrology	p. 71
Vegetation and urban green spaces	p. 73
In-depth study area: Quebrada San Ramón	p. 74
Definition of a case specific indicator set for the risk analysis	p. 77
Function and characteristics of indicators	p. 77
Selection of variables relevant for the analysis of flood hazard	p. 77
Selection of variables referring to the elements at risk	p. 79
Selection of vulnerability-related variables	p. 79
Bringing together the relevant variables	p. 81
From descriptive variables to indicators	p. 84
Data base and data processing	p. 87
Hydro-meteorological data base	p. 88
Processing of the hydro-meteorological data	p. 89
GIS and remote sensing data base	p. 91
Pre-processing of the GIS data	p. 92
Pre-processing of the remote sensing data	p. 93
Geometric correction and co-registration	p. 93
Data coverage and data gaps	p. 93
Socio-economic data base	p. 94
Pre-processing of the socio-economic data	p. 95
Expert interviews, household surveys, and questionnaires	p. 96
Expert interviews	p. 96
Household surveys	p. 96
Questionnaires	p. 97
Processing of the empirical data	p. 98
Expert interviews	p. 98
Household surveys	p. 99
Questionnaires	p. 99
Remote sensing data analysis	p. 101
The theory of remote sensing-based land-use classifications	p. 101
Pixel-based classification	p. 102
Object-oriented classification	p. 103
Classification of the ASTER images	p. 107
Classification process	p. 108
Classification results	p. 110
Accuracy assessment	p. 111
Classification of the Quickbird image	p. 113
Classification process	p. 113
Classification results	p. 117
Accuracy assessment	p. 117
Hydrologic modeling	p. 119
Theoretical background and selection of methods	p. 119
Relevant processes with respect to LULC changes	p. 119
Theoretical background of hydrological models	p. 120
Selection of model and methods	p. 122
Data preparation with HEC-GeoHMS	p. 126
Terrain pre-processing	p. 128
Hydrologic processing	p. 128
Delineation of Hydrological Soil Groups (HSG)	p. 130
Creation of a gridfile matching the SHG	p. 131
HMS Project Setup	p. 133
Hydrological modeling using HEC-HMS	p. 134
Model description	p. 134
Parameterization	p. 135
Simulation	p. 139
Sensitivity analysis	p. 140
Model optimization	p. 143
Modeling alternative land-use/land-cover scenarios	p. 146
The characteristics and functions of scenarios	p. 146
Land-use/land-cover scenarios for the San Ramón basin	p. 147
Flood risk analysis and assessment	p. 153
Delineation of information to feed the indicators	p. 153
Flood hazard assessment	p. 155
The relation between runoff and flood extents	p. 155
Quantification of the hazard	p. 157
Analysis of the hazard maps	p. 158
Assessment of the elements at risk	p. 159
Quantification of the elements at risk	p. 159
Analysis of the map of elements at risk	p. 160
Flood vulnerability assessment	p. 161
Evaluation of the vulnerability-related variables	p. 161
Quantification of vulnerability	p. 165
Analysis of the vulnerability maps	p. 166
Sensitivity analysis for the weighting	p. 168
Comprehensive risk analysis	p. 169
The development and assessment of flood risk	p. 171
Number of new residential sites in flood-prone areas	p. 171
Number of people living in flood-prone areas	p. 172
Development of the components of risk in the future	p. 173
Prevention and mitigation measures	p. 177
Analysis of the previous deficits	p. 177
Flood risk scenarios	p. 180
Scenario I - Increasing aridity	p. 180
Scenario II - Afforestation	p. 182
Scenario III - Construction activities	p. 183
Recommendations	p. 185
Prevention measures	p. 185
Mitigation measures	p. 189
Taking action	p. 192
Discussion and conclusions	p. 193
Discussion	p. 193
Vulnerability	p. 193
Hazard	p. 195
Elements at risk	p. 197
Risk	p. 198
The applicability of the concept for multi-hazard studies	p. 199
The spatial transferability of the concept	p. 200
The role of flood risk and flood risk awareness	p. 201
Further ecological consequences of urban growth	p. 202
Conclusions	p. 203
References	p. 207
Additional Tables and Charts	p. 221
Coloured Figures	p. 235
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Areas at Risk - Concept and Methods for Urban Flood Risk Assessment

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