Seeing Through Statistics

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ISBN: 9780534357863 | 0534357865
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 2/19/1999

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This second edition of Jessica Utt's popular book develops statistical literacy and critical thinking through real-world applications, with an emphasis on ideas, not calculations. Utts focuses on two central concepts--uncertainty and data. Ideas are introduced in interesting applied and real contexts, without using an abundance of technicalities and calculations which only serve to confuse students.

PART 1 FINDING DATA IN LIFE

(104)

CHAPTER 1 The Benefits and Risks of Using Statistics

(12)

1.1 Statistics

(1)

Case Study 1.1 Heart or Hypothalamus?

(1)

1.2 Detecting Patterns and Relationships

(3)

Case Study 1.2 Does Aspirin Prevent Heart Attacks?

(1)

1.3 Don't Be Deceived by Improper Use of Statistics

(2)

Case Study 1.3 A Mistaken Accusation of Cheating

(1)

1.4 Summary and Conclusions

(1)

Exercises

(2)

Mini-Projects

(1)

References

(1)

CHAPTER 2 Reading the News

(17)

2.1 The Educated Consumer of Data

(1)

2.2 How to Be a Statistics Sleuth: Seven Critical Components

(3)

2.3 Four Hypothetical Examples of Bad Reports

(7)

2.4 Planning Your Own Study: Defining the Components in Advance

(2)

Case Study 2.1 Brooks Shoes Brings Flawed Study to Court

(1)

Exercises

(3)

Mini-Projects

(1)

References

(1)

CHAPTER 3 Measurements, Mistakes, and Misunderstandings

(17)

3.1 Simple Measures Don't Exist

(1)

3.2 It's All in the Wording

(3)

Case Study 3.1 No Opinion of Your Own? Let Politics Decide

(1)

3.3 Open or Closed Questions: Should Choices Be Given?

(2)

3.4 Defining What Is Being Measured

(3)

Case Study 3.2 Questions in Advertising

(1)

3.5 Defining a Common Language

(4)

Exercises

(2)

Mini-Projects

(1)

References

(1)

CHAPTER 4 How to Get a Good Sample

(22)

4.1 Common Research Strategies

(2)

4.2 Defining a Common Language

(1)

4.3 The Beauty of Sampling

(2)

4.4 Simple Random Sampling

(1)

4.5 Other Sampling Methods

(3)

4.6 Difficulties and Disasters in Sampling

(5)

Case Study 4.1 The Infamous Literary Digest Poll of 1936

(1)

Exercises

(5)

Mini-Projects

(1)

References

(2)

CHAPTER 5 Experiments and Observational Studies

(22)

5.1 Defining a Common Language

(3)

5.2 Designing a Good Experiment

(3)

Case Study 5.1 Quitting Smoking with Nicotine Patches

(1)

5.3 Difficulties and Disasters in Experiments

(4)

Case Study 5.2 Exercise Yourself to Sleep

(1)

5.4 Designing a Good Observational Study

(3)

Case Study 5.3 Baldness and Heart Attacks

(3)

5.5 Difficulties and Disasters in Observational Studies

(2)

Exercises

(4)

Mini-Projects

(1)

References

(2)

CHAPTER 6 Getting the Big Picture

(13)

6.1 Final Questions

(12)

Case Study 6.1 Mozart, Relaxation, and Performance on Spatial Tasks

(2)

Case Study 6.2 Meditation and Aging

(3)

Case Study 6.3 Drinking, Driving, and the Supreme Court

(3)

Case Study 6.4 Smoking During Pregnancy and Child's IQ

101

(2)

Case Study 6.5 For Class Discussion: Guns and Homicides at Home

103

(1)

References

104

(1)

PART 2 FINDING LIFE IN DATA

105

(150)

CHAPTER 7 Summarizing and Displaying Measurement Data

106

(21)

7.1 Turning Data into Information

107

(1)

7.2 The Total Picture: Stemplots and Histograms

108

(7)

7.3 Five Useful Numbers: A Summary

115

(1)

7.4 Boxplots

116

(3)

7.5 Traditional Measures: Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation

119

(4)

Case Study 7.1 Detecting Exam Cheating with a Histogram

122

(1)

For Those Who Like Formulas

123

(1)

Exercises

123

(3)

Mini-Projects

126

(1)

References

126

(1)

CHAPTER 8 Bell-Shaped Curves and Other Shapes

127

(13)

8.1 Populations, Frequency Curves, and Proportions

128

(2)

8.2 The Pervasiveness of Normal Curves

130

(1)

8.3 Percentiles and Standardized Scores

130

(4)

8.4 z-Scores and Familiar Intervals

134

(1)

For Those Who Like Formulas

135

(1)

Exercises

136

(3)

References

139

(1)

CHAPTER 9 Plots, Graphs, and Pictures

140

(17)

9.1 Well-Designed Statistical Pictures

141

(1)

9.2 Pictures of Categorical Data

141

(3)

9.3 Pictures of Measurement Variables

144

9.4 Difficulties and Disasters in Plots, Graphs, and Pictures

140

9.5 A Checklist for Statistical Pictures

151

(2)

Case Study 9.1 Time to Panic about Illicit Drug Use?

152

(1)

Exercises

153

(3)

Mini-Projects

156

(1)

References

156

(1)

CHAPTER 10 Relationships Between Measurement Variables

157

(20)

10.1 Statistical Relationships

158

(1)

10.2 Strength versus Statistical Significance

159

(1)

10.3 Measuring Strength Through Correlation

160

(4)

10.4 Specifying Linear Relationships with Regression

164

(8)

Case Study 10.1 Are Attitudes about Love and Romance Hereditary?

168

(2)

Case Study 10.2 A Weighty Issue: Women Want Less, Men Want More

170

(2)

For Those Who Like Formulas

172

(1)

Exercises

172

(3)

Mini-Projects

175

(1)

References

175

(2)

CHAPTER 11 Relationships Can Be Deceiving

177

(18)

11.1 Illegitimate Correlations

178

(5)

11.2 Legitimate Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

183

(3)

11.3 Some Reasons for Relationships Between Variables

186

(3)

11.4 Confirming Causation

189

(1)

Exercises

190

(4)

Mini-Projects

194

(1)

References

194

(1)

CHAPTER 12 Relationships Between Categorical Variables

195

(31)

12.1 Displaying Relationships Between Categorical Variables

196

(3)

12.2 Assessing the Statistical Significance of a 2 X 2 Table

199

(8)

Case Study 12.1 Extrasensory Perception Works Best with Movies

206

(1)

12.3 Relative Risk, Increased Risk, and Odds

207

(4)

12.4 Misleading Statistics about Risk

211

(2)

12.5 Simpson's Paradox: The Missing Third Variable

213

(4)

Case Study 12.2 Assessing Discrimination in Hiring and Firing

215

(2)

For Those Who Like Formulas

217

(1)

Exercises

218

(6)

Mini-Projects

224

(1)

References

224

(2)

CHAPTER 13 Reading the Economic News

226

(15)

13.1 Cost of Living: The Consumer Price Index

227

(3)

13.2 Uses of the Consumer Price Index

230

(2)

13.3 Criticisms of the Consumer Price Index

232

(2)

13.4 Economic Indicators

234

(3)

Case Study 13.1 Did Wages Really Go Up in the Reagan-Bush Years?

236

(1)

Exercises

237

(2)

Mini-Projects

239

(1)

References

240

(1)

CHAPTER 14 Understanding and Reporting Trends over Time

241

(14)

14.1 Time Series

242

(1)

14.2 Components of Time Series

243

(3)

14.3 Seasonal Adjustments: Reporting the Consumer Price Index

246

(2)

14.4 Cautions and Checklist

248

(3)

Case Study 14.1 If You're Looking for a Job, Try May or October

249

(2)

Exercises

251

(2)

Mini-Projects

253

(1)

References

253

(2)

PART 3 UNDERSTANDING UNCERTAINTY IN LIFE

255

(60)

CHAPTER 15 Understanding Probability and Long-Term Expectations

256

(23)

15.1 Probability

257

(1)

15.2 The Relative-Frequency Interpretation

257

(3)

15.3 The Personal-Probability Interpretation

260

(1)

15.4 Applying Some Simple Probability Rules

261

(3)

15.5 When Will It Happen?

264

(3)

15.6 Long-Term Gains, Losses, and Expectations

267

(4)

Case Study 15.1 Birthdays and Death Days--Is There a Connection?

270

(1)

For Those Who Like Formulas

271

(1)

Exercises

271

(6)

Mini-Projects

277

(1)

References

277

(2)

CHAPTER 16 Psychological Influences on Personal Probability

279

(17)

16.1 Revisiting Personal Probability

280

(1)

16.2 Equivalent Probabilities; Different Decisions

280

(2)

16.3 How Personal Probabilities Can Be Distorted

282

(4)

16.4 Optimism, Reluctance to Change, and Overconfidence

286

(2)

16.5 Calibrating Personal Probabilities of Experts

288

(2)

Case Study 16.1 Calibrating Weather Forecasters and Physicians

289

(1)

16.6 Tips for Improving Your Personal Probabilities and Judgments

290

(1)

Exercises

291

(3)

Mini-Projects

294

(1)

References

294

(2)

CHAPTER 17 When Intuition Differs from Relative Frequency

296

(19)

17.1 Revisiting Relative Frequency

297

(1)

17.2 Coincidences

297

(4)

17.3 The Gambler's Fallacy

301

(1)

17.4 Confusion of the Inverse

302

(3)

Case Study 17.1 Streak Shooting in Basketball: Reality or Illusion?

304

(1)

17.5 Using Expected Values to Make Wise Decisions

305

(4)

Case Study 17.2 How Bad Is a Bet on the British Open?

307

(2)

For Those Who Like Formulas

309

(1)

Exercises

309

(3)

Mini-Projects

312

(1)

References

313

(2)

PART 4 MAKING JUDGMENTS FROM SURVEYS AND EXPERIMENTS

315

(138)

CHAPTER 18 The Diversity of Samples from the Same Population

316

(19)

18.1 Setting the Stage

317

(1)

18.2 What to Expect of Sample Proportions

317

(5)

18.3 What to Expect of Sample Means

322

(4)

18.4 What to Expect in Other Situations

326

(2)

Case Study 18.1 Do Americans Really Vote When They Say They Do?

327

(1)

For Those Who Like Formulas

328

(1)

Exercises

329

(3)

Mini-Projects

332

(2)

References

334

(1)

CHAPTER 19 Estimating Proportions with Confidence

335

(16)

19.1 Confidence Intervals

336

(1)

19.2 Three Examples of Confidence Intervals from the Media

336

(3)

19.3 Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Proportion

339

(6)

Case Study 19.1 A Winning Confidence Interval Loses in Court

344

(1)

For Those Who Like Formulas

345

(1)

Exercises

345

(4)

Mini-Projects

349

(1)

References

350

(1)

CHAPTER 20 The Role of Confidence Intervals in Research

351

(20)

20.1 Confidence Intervals for Population Means

352

(3)

20.2 Confidence Intervals for the Difference Between Two Means

355

(2)

20.3 Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Confidence Intervals

357

(5)

20.4 Understanding Any Confidence Interval

362

(2)

Case Study 20.1 Premenstrual Syndrome? Try Calcium

363

(1)

For Those Who Like Formulas

364

(1)

Exercises

365

(3)

Mini-Projects

368

(1)

References

369

(2)

CHAPTER 21 Rejecting Chance--Testing Hypotheses in Research

371

(17)

21.1 Using Data to Make Decisions

372

(2)

21.2 The Basic Steps for Testing Hypotheses

374

(3)

21.3 What Can Go Wrong: The Two Types of Errors

377

(6)

Case Study 21.1 Testing for the Existence of Extrasensory Perception

380

(3)

Exercises

383

(3)

Mini-Projects

386

(1)

References

387

(1)

CHAPTER 22 Hypothesis Testing--Examples and Case Studies

388

(19)

22.1 How Hypothesis Tests Are Reported in the News

389

(1)

22.2 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions and Means

390

(3)

22.3 Revisiting Chi-Squared Tests for Categorical Variables

393

(2)

22.4 Revisiting Case Studies: How Journals Present Hypothesis Tests

395

(5)

Case Study 22.1 An Interpretation of a p-Value Not Fit to Print

398

(2)

For Those Who Like Formulas

400

(1)

Exercises

401

(4)

Mini-Projects

405

(1)

References

406

(1)

CHAPTER 23 Significance, Importance, and Undetected Differences

407

(14)

23.1 Real Importance versus Statistical Significance

408

(2)

23.2 The Role of Sample Size in Statistical Significance

410

(1)

23.3 No Difference versus No Statistically Significant Difference

411

(3)

Case Study 23.1 Seen a UFO? You May Be Healthier Than Your Friends

413

(1)

23.4 A Summary of Warnings

414

(2)

Case Study 23.2 Finding Loneliness on the Internet

415

(1)

Exercises

416

(3)

Mini-Projects

419

(1)

References

420

(1)

CHAPTER 24 Meta-Analysis: Resolving Inconsistencies across Studies

421

(17)

24.1 The Need for Meta-Analysis

422

(1)

24.2 Two Important Decisions for the Analyst

423

(4)

Case Study 24.1 Smoking and Reduced Fertility

426

(1)

24.3 Some Benefits of Meta-Analysis

427

(2)

24.4 Criticisms of Meta-Analysis

429

(5)

Case Study 24.2 Controversy over Mammograms

432

(2)

Exercises

434

(2)

Mini-Projects

436

(1)

References

437

(1)

CHAPTER 25 Putting What You Have Learned to the Test

438

(15)

Case Study 25.1 Cranberry Juice and Bladder Infections

439

(1)

Case Study 25.2 Children on the Go

440

(1)

Case Study 25.3 It Really Is True about Aspirin

441

(2)

Case Study 25.4 You Can Work and Get Your Exercise at the Same Time

443

(1)

Case Study 25.5 Sex, Alcohol, and the First Date

443

(1)

Case Study 25.6 Unpalatable Pate

444

(1)

Case Study 25.7 Nursing Moms Can Exercise, Too

445

(1)

Case Study 25.8 So You Thought Spinach Was Good for You?

446

(2)

Case Study 25.9 Chill Out--Time to Move to Honolulu

448

(2)

Case Study 25.10 So You Thought Hot Dogs Were Bad for You?

450

(3)

References

451

(2)

Solutions to Selected Exercises

453

(4)

Index

457

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Seeing Through Statistics

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials