Simulation Modelling for Business

Simulation Modelling for Business is a comprehensive textbook ideal for use on undergraduate and postgraduate courses.The first section of the book provides a definition of simulation modelling and describes the skills and resources required to undertake a successful simulation study. Types of simulation are assessed and the basic concepts behind the method are outlined. The main part of the book follows the steps involved in conducting a simulation study and provides a practical guide to building a simulation model and to implementing the results. Reference is made throughout to ARENA, SIMUL8 and WITNESS; systems used in industry and widely available to students. Case studies from manufacturing and service industries demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach and chapter questions are provided to assist learning.

Preface

viii

Acknowledgements

ix

Biography

x

1 Introduction to Simulation Modelling

1

(20)

Introduction

2

(1)

What is Simulation Modelling?

2

(1)

Defining Simulation

3

(1)

Why Use Simulation?

4

(1)

Disadvantages of the Simulation Method

5

(1)

Simulation and Variability

6

(2)

Where is Simulation Used?

8

(2)

History of Simulation

10

(1)

A Classification of Model Types

11

(8)

Summary

19

(1)

Exercises

20

(1)

2 Introducing Simulation in the Organisation

21

(12)

Introduction

22

(1)

Steps in Introducing Simulation

22

(10)

Summary

32

(1)

Exercises

32

(1)

3 Formulating a Simulation Project Proposal

33

(16)

Introduction

34

(1)

Linking Operational Change to Strategic Objectives

34

(3)

Determining the Level of Usage of the Simulation Model

37

(2)

Managing the Simulation Project

39

(4)

The Simulation Project Proposal

43

(3)

Summary

46

(1)

Exercises

47

(2)

4 Data Collection and Process Mapping

49

(10)

Introduction

50

(1)

Data Collection

50

(2)

Process Mapping

52

(4)

Summary

56

(1)

Exercises

56

(3)

5 Modelling Input Data

59

(30)

Introduction

60

(1)

Less than 20 Data Points: Estimation

60

(1)

20+ Data Points: Deriving a Theoretical Distribution

61

(19)

200+ Data Points: Constructing an Empirical Distribution

80

(3)

Historical Data Points

83

(1)

Nonstationary Arrival Processes

83

(1)

Summary

84

(2)

Exercises

86

(3)

6 Building the Model

89

(42)

Introduction

90

(1)

The Single Queue Bank Clerk Simulation

90

(1)

Building the Model using ARENA

91

(8)

Building the Model using SIMUL8

99

(8)

Building the Model using WITNESS

107

(11)

The Dual Queue Bank Clerk Simulation

118

(1)

Building the Model using ARENA

119

(4)

Building the Model using SIMUL8

123

(3)

Building the Model using WITNESS

126

(3)

Summary

129

(1)

Exercises

129

(2)

7 Validation and Verification

131

(12)

Introduction

132

(1)

Verification

132

(6)

Validation

138

(3)

Summary

141

(1)

Exercises

141

(2)

8 Experimentation and Analysis

143

(46)

Introduction

144

(1)

Statistical Analysis for Terminating Systems

145

(1)

Single Model Statistical Analysis

145

(1)

Establishing a Confidence Interval

145

(13)

Establishing Confidence Intervals at a Given Half-Width

158

(4)

Comparing Alternatives

162

(2)

Paired t-test

164

(5)

Paired t-test using Common Random Numbers

169

(2)

One-Way ANOVA

171

(6)

Factorial Designs

177

(2)

Statistical Analysis for Non-Terminating Systems

179

(8)

Summary

187

(1)

Exercises

187

(2)

9 Implementation

189

(6)

Introduction

190

(1)

Project Report

190

(1)

Project Presentation

190

(1)

Project Implementation Plan

191

(1)

Organisational Context of Implementation

191

(2)

Summary

193

(1)

Exercises

194

(1)

10 Case Studies (Andrew Greasley and Duncan Shaw)

195

(26)

Introduction

196

(1)

Case Study 1: A Petrol Station

197

(1)

Case Study 2: A Coffee Shop

198

(1)

Case Study 3: A Supermarket

199

(1)

Case Study 4: A Garage

200

(1)

Case Study 5: A Night Club

201

(1)

Case Study 6: A Hospital Ward

202

(4)

Case Study 7: A Factory Simulation

206

(9)

Case Study 8: A Supermarket Simulation

215

(6)

Bibliography

221

(4)

Index

225

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Simulation Modelling for Business

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials