SIPRI Yearbook 1999 Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security

, by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

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ISBN: 9780198296461 | 0198296460
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 12/30/1999

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This 30th edition of the Yearbook analyzes developments in 1998 in areas such as: security and conflicts; military spending and armaments; and non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament. It also contains extensive annexes on the implementation of arms control and disarmament agreements and a chronology of security- and arms control-related events.

Preface

Acronyms

xvi

Glossary

Ragnhild Ferm

Connie Wall

Introduction: Rethinking the contemporary security system

(14)

Adam Daniel Rotfeld

Old questions, new problems International military interventions: legal, illegal and non-legal

(3)

A cooperative security order

(1)

Strategic perspectives

(1)

SIPRI findings

(5)

Conclusions

(3)

Part I. Security and Conflicts, 1998

Major armed conflicts

(62)

Margareta Sollenberg

Peter Wallensteen

Andres Jato

Global patterns of major armed conflicts, 1989--98

(1)

Changes in the table of conflicts for 1998 New conflicts---Conflicts recorded in 1997 that were not recorded for 1998

(1)

Regional patterns of major armed conflicts, 1989--98

(3)

Conflict patterns in Africa Major armed conflicts in Africa in 1998---Conflict complexes---Assessment

(14)

Regional distribution of locations with at least one major armed conflict, 1989--98

(1)

Regional distribution, number and types of major armed conflicts, 1989--98

(4)

Map of Africa

(4)

Appendix 1A. Major armed conflicts, 1998

(2)

Margareta Sollenberg

Staffan Angman

Ylva Blondel

Ann-Sofi Jakobsson

Andres Jato

Table of conflict locations with at least one major armed conflict in 1998

(6)

Appendix 1B. The Kashmir conflict

(1)

Sten Widmalm

Introduction

(1)

Background to the conflict Kashmir at the time of independence---Kashmir between interstate conflicts---The road to democracy and peace---Institutional breakdown in Jammu and Kashmir, 1982--89

(6)

A decade of violence

(2)

The Kashmir conflict in 1998 Farooq Abdullah Kashmir and the Bharatiya Janata Party Government---Violence in Kashmir in 1998

(4)

Conclusions

(1)

The regions of Kashmir, 1947

(1)

Kashmir in 1998

(11)

Appendix 1C. The Kosovo conflict

(1)

Stefan Troebst

Introduction

(2)

Background

(1)

The war over Kosovo

(8)

The informal ceasefire

(3)

Conclusions

(2)

Map of Kosovo

(15)

Appendix 1D. The Tajikistan conflict

(1)

Irina Zviagelskaya

Introduction

(1)

The political issues

(3)

The rebellion in Leninabad: a new balance of forces

(1)

The military issues

(2)

The return of refugees

(1)

Challenges to security: terrorism and drug trafficking

(2)

The Afghan factor

(1)

The Uzbek factor

(1)

The Russian presence

(1)

Conclusions

(3)

Map of Tajikistan

(13)

Armed conflict prevention, management and resolution

(92)

Jaana Karhilo

Introduction

(1)

The United Nations The Secretary-General and the Secretariat---The Security Council and the General Assembly---International legal mechanisms

(12)

UN peacekeeping operations Peacekeeping operations---Continuing peacekeeping reforms---Peacekeeping finance---National and cooperative efforts to improve capability

(17)

UN peace enforcement measures Sanctions---Military enforcement

107

(2)

Regional and other multilateral organizations Europe and the CIS---Africa---Latin America---Asia

109

(26)

Conclusions

135

(24)

Cases before the International Court of Justice, 1998

(20)

Peacekeeping exercises held under PFP auspices in 1998

106

UN peacekeeping operations in the field, as of 31 December 1998

(45)

Appendix 2A. Multilateral peace missions, 1998

137

(1)

Johan Sjoberg

Multilateral peace missions

138

(21)

Appendix 2B. The Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement

159

(1)

Ian Anthony

Introduction

159

(1)

Constitutional issues and new institutional arrangements Arrangements for Northern Ireland---Arrangements for the island of Ireland---Arrangements between different parts of the British Isles---Arrangements between the Irish and British governments

160

(4)

Security

164

(1)

Arms decommissioning

164

(1)

Review of criminal procedures, policing and justice

165

(2)

Conclusions

167

(2)

The Middle East

169

(26)

Peter Jones

Anders Jagerskog

Introduction

169

(1)

The peace process The Israeli-Palestinian track---The Israeli-Syrian and Israeli---Lebanese tracks---The Israeli---Jordanian track---The multilateral track

169

(13)

North Africa and the Mediterranean

182

(2)

The situation in the Persian Gulf The situation in Iran---The situation in Iraq

184

(4)

Conclusions

188

(7)

Appendix 3A. Documents on the Middle East peace process

The Wye River Memorandum

189

(6)

Russia: military reform

195

(18)

Alexei G. Arbatov

Introduction

195

(1)

The new domestic and external security environment Russia's military requirements---Financial resources for the military

196

(5)

The basic principles of the military reform

201

(1)

Reduction and reorganization of the armed forces

202

(2)

The crash of 1998 and military reform

204

(5)

The draft 1999 budget and military reform

209

(2)

Conclusions

211

(2)

Russian `national defence' as a share of GNP and of the federal budget, 1994--99

200

(13)

The Caspian Sea Basin: the security dimensions

213

(22)

Gennady Chufrin

Introduction

213

(1)

Caspian oil and gas reserves

213

(2)

The Caspian Sea legal regime

215

(2)

Oil and gas routes from the Caspian Sea

217

(6)

The threat of militarization of the Caspian Basin

223

(4)

Local conflicts The North Caucasus---The Transcaucasus

227

(7)

Conclusions

234

(1)

Map showing the routes of existing and planned oil pipelines from the Caspian Basin

220

(15)

Europe: the institutionalized security process

235

(34)

Adam Daniel Rotfeld

Introduction

235

(2)

Europe and the United States

237

(1)

NATO: a new role and mission Transformation, adaptation and enlargement---NATO, Russia and adaptation of the CFE Treaty---An `open door' policy without a second tranche?

238

(12)

The European Union: security and defence policy? The future of European defence---EU enlargement

250

(6)

The OSCE: a new dimension of security cooperation An instrument for democracy and conflict prevention---The OSCE and other European security organizations---The OSCE Security Model

256

(5)

Conclusions

261

(8)

The overlapping membership of multilateral Euro-Atlantic security organizations, as of 1 April 1999

236

(27)

Appendix 6A. Documents on European security

Oslo Ministerial Declaration---British-French Joint Declaration on European Defence---Act of Ratification of the North Atlantic Treaty by Poland

263

(6)

Part II. Military spending and armaments, 1998

Military expenditure

269

(82)

Elisabeth Skons

Agnes Courades Allebeck

Evamaria Loose-Weintraub

Petter Stalenheim

Introduction

269

(3)

Africa Conflict-related increases of military expenditure---Military expenditure reductions in South Africa

272

(5)

The Americas The United States

277

(6)

Asia South Asia---East Asia---Central Asia

283

(9)

The Middle East

292

(1)

Europe The Russian Federation---Western Europe

293

(34)

Regional military expenditure estimates, 1989--98

270

(10)

The US defence budget: budget authority and outlays, FYs 1985--2003

280

(1)

The US FY 2000 defence budget: budget authority, FY 1999--2005

281

(3)

South Asia: military expenditure, 1989--98

284

(2)

East Asia: military expenditure, 1989--98

286

(3)

Central Asia: military expenditure, 1995--98

289

(6)

The Russian Federation: military expenditure, 1992--99

295

(1)

The Russian defence budget for 1998

296

(4)

Appendix 7A. Tables of military expenditure

300

(1)

Elisabeth Skons

Agnes Courades Allebeck

Evamaria Loose-Weintraub

Petter Stalenheim

Military expenditure by region, in constant US dollars, 1989--98

300

(2)

Military expenditure by region and country, in local currency, 1989--98

302

(7)

Military expenditure by region and country, in constant US dollars, 1989--98

309

(7)

Military expenditure by region and country, as percentage of gross domestic product, 1989--97

316

(8)

Appendix 7B. Tables of NATO military expenditure

324

(1)

NATO distribution of military expenditure by category, 1989--98

324

(3)

Appendix 7C. Sources and methods for military expenditure data

327

(1)

Purpose of the data

327

(1)

Sources

327

(1)

Methods

328

(4)

Definition of military expenditure---Calculations---Estimates and the use of brackets---Purchasing power parity rates Comparison of military expenditure by market exchange rates and purchasing power parity rates, selected countries, 1995

332

(2)

Appendix 7D. The military expenditure of China, 1989--98

334

(1)

Shaoguang Wang

Introduction

334

(1)

China's official military budget

335

(3)

Military expenditure in other budget categories People's Armed Police---Defence RDT&E---Construction---Subsidies to demobilized military personnel and their dependants---Subsidies to military production---Special appropriations for arms imports

338

(6)

Military expenditure deriving from extra-budgetary sources Earnings from domestic business activities---Arms exports

344

(3)

China's total military expenditure

347

(2)

Conclusions

349

(2)

Official Chinese central and local expenditures for defence, 1989--98

335

(2)

Spending categories in the Chinese official defence budget

337

(3)

Estimated off-budget military expenditure of China, 1989--98

340

(6)

Chinese arms imports and exports, 1989--98

346

(2)

China's military burden, 1989--98

348

(3)

Military research and development

351

(20)

Eric Arnett

Introduction

351

(2)

Sources of information

353

(2)

India The Light Combat Aircraft---The nuclear submarine and the Sagarika missile---The Agni ballistic missile

355

(4)

Iran, Israel and ballistic missile defence

359

(3)

Japan

362

(1)

China

363

(1)

Western Europe The United Kingdom---Germany---Spain---France

364

(5)

Conclusions

369

(2)

Official figures for government military R&D expenditure

352

(1)

Government expenditure on military R & D in select countries, 1986--97

353

(1)

Appropriations for major US R & D programmes, 1999

354

(17)

Nuclear tests by India and Pakistan

371

(16)

Eric Arnett

Introduction

371

(1)

Technical information related to the tests India---Pakistan

372

(2)

Reasons for the tests India---Pakistan

374

(8)

Military implications Expanded weaponization?---The effect of withdrawing military cooperation on India's military power

382

(3)

Conclusions

385

(2)

Expenditure on research and development by the Indian Government, fiscal years 1965/66--1994/95

375

(3)

Indian and Pakistani imports of major conventional weapons, 1960--97

378

(3)

Expenditure on atomic energy research by the Pakistani Government, fiscal years 1979/80--1995/96

381

(6)

Arms production

387

(34)

Elisabeth Skons

Reinhilde Weidacher

Introduction

387

(1)

The SIPRI top 100

388

(3)

Russia Institutional framework

391

(3)

Restructuring in the USA and Western Europe The USA---Western Europe---Transatlantic military industrial links

394

(13)

The global structure of arms production

407

(14)

Regional/national shares of arms sales for the top 100 arms-producing companies in the OECD and int he developing countries in 1997

389

(3)

Output of the Russian arms industry, 1991--98

392

(4)

US companies whose arms sales changed the most 1993--97

396

(4)

Cross-border joint ventures in the West European arms industry, January 1998---January 1999

400

(2)

Partner companies in Airbus Industrie and other potential partners in the European Aerospace and Defence Company (EADC), December 1998

402

(2)

Restructuring of the French arms industry, 1998

404

(4)

Arms production 1996: the 10 largest arms-producing countries excluding China

408

(2)

National arms production in the six major arms-producing countries, change 1990--96

410

US aerospace industry consolidation

395

(17)

Appendix 10A. The 100 largest arms-producing companies, 1997

412

(1)

Elisabeth Skons

Reinhilde Weidacher

SIPRI Arms Industry Network

The 100 largest arms-producing companies in the OECD and developing countries, 1997

413

(8)

Transfers of major conventional weapons

421

(98)

Bjorn Hagelin

Pieter D. Wezeman

Siemon T. Wezeman

Introduction

421

(2)

Main developments in 1998 The suppliers of major conventional weapons---The recipients of major conventional weapons---Developments in arms transfer policy in 1998

423

(8)

Arms transfer dynamics and the Cyprus crisis

431

(5)

International embargoes on arms transfers

436

(3)

The EU Code of Conduct Transparency

439

(3)

National and international transparency in arms transfers Official national data on arms exports---The UN Register of Conventional Arms

442

(59)

The 31 leading suppliers of major conventional weapons, 1994--98

424

(2)

The leading recipients of major conventional weapons from the six major suppliers, 1994--98

426

(2)

The 72 leading recipients of major conventional weapons, 1994--98

428

(4)

Suppliers of major conventional weapons to Cyprus, Greece and Turkey, 1994--98

432

(5)

International arms embargoes in effect, 1994--98

437

(7)

Official data on arms exports, 1993--97

444

The trend in transfers of major conventional weapons, 1984--98

422

(28)

Appendix 11A. The volume of transfers of major conventional weapons, 1989--98

450

(1)

Bjorn Hagelin

Pieter D. Wezeman

Siemon T. Wezeman

Volume of imports of major of major conventional weapons

450

(1)

Volume of exports of major conventional weapons

451

(3)

Appendix 11B. Register of the transfers and licensed production of major conventional weapons, 1998

454

(47)

Bjorn Hagelin

Pieter D. Wezeman

Siemon T. Wezeman

Appendix 11C. Sources and methods

501

(1)

The SIPRI sources

501

(1)

Selection criteria

501

(1)

The SIPRI trend-indicator value

502

(4)

Appendix 11D. The European Union Code of Conduct for Arms Exports

503

(3)

Appendix 11E. Efforts to control the international trade in light weapons

506

(1)

Bernard Adam

Introduction

506

(1)

International initiatives The UN Panel of Governmental Experts on Small Arms---Guidelines for international arms transfers---The UN Security Council and light weapons in Africa---Transparency in light weapons transfers

507

(4)

Regional initiatives The European Union---The Organization of American States---Initiatives in Africa

511

(4)

National and other initiatives

515

(1)

Conclusions

516

(3)

Part III. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 1998

Nuclear arms control and non-proliferation

519

(46)

Shannon Kile

Introduction

519

(1)

The Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests International reactions---Talks on reducing nuclear dangers in South Asia---The NPT regime after the nuclear tests

520

(5)

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

525

(4)

A ban on the production of fissile material

529

(2)

Other developments The NPT Preparatory Committee---The US---North Korean Agreed Framework

531

(4)

US---Russian nuclear arms control Implementation of the START I Treaty---The START II Treaty---Cooperative strategic warning

535

(5)

The ABM Treaty and ballistic missile defence The ABM Treaty and US national missile defences---Other ABM Treaty controversies

540

(5)

Conclusions

545

(11)

START I aggregate numbers of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles and accountable warheads, 1 July 1998

535

(12)

Appendix 12A. Tables of nuclear forces

547

(1)

Robert S. Norris

William M. Arkin

US strategic nuclear forces, January 1999

547

(3)

Russian strategic nuclear forces, January 1999

550

(2)

British nuclear forces, January 1999

552

(2)

French nuclear forces, January 1999

554

(1)

Chinese nuclear forces, January 1999

555

(1)

Appendix 12B. Nuclear explosions, 1945--98

556

(1)

Ragnhild Ferm

Introduction

556

(1)

The 1998 Indian and Pakistani tests

556

(3)

Environmental consequences of nuclear explosions

559

(1)

Announced subcritical experiments

560

(1)

About the tables

561

(4)

Nuclear explosions in 1998

562

(1)

Estimated number of nuclear explosions, 1945--98

562

(3)

Chemical and biological weapon developments and arms control

565

(48)

Jean Pascal Zanders

Elisabeth M. French

Natalie Pauwels

Introduction

565

(1)

Chemical weapon disarmament Implementing the CWC---Destruction of chemical weapons and related facilities---Old chemical weapons---Abandoned chemical weapons

566

(11)

Biological weapon disarmament

577

(3)

Chemical and biological weapon proliferation concerns The strike against an alleged CW factory in Sudan---Russian BW proliferation concerns---South Africa's CBW programmes---The 1992 EI AI aircraft crash in Amsterdam---The Cuban biological warfare allegation

580

(6)

UNSCOM developments

586

(7)

Countering CBW terrorism International cooperative efforts against CBW terrorism---The US counter-terrorism programme

593

(2)

Conclusions

595

(1)

UNSCOM inspections, October 1997-December 1998

588

(8)

Appendix 13A. Benefits and threats of developments in biotechnology and genetic engineering

596

(1)

Malcolm Dando

Introduction

596

(1)

Advances in scientific knowledge and genome mapping

597

(3)

Biotechnology

600

(1)

Medical and health improvements

601

(3)

Genomic diversity and DNA fingerprinting

604

(3)

The possible use of biotechnology for political and weapon purposes

607

(3)

Conclusions

610

(3)

Some goals of the Human Genome Project (HGP) for 1998--2003

599

(3)

US clinical trials of gene therapy, as of early 1998

602

(7)

US Department of Defense view of the potential impact of biotechnology and genetic engineering

609

(4)

Conventional arms control

613

(54)

Zdzislaw Lachowski

Introduction

613

(1)

Conventional arms control in Europe: the CFE Treaty Treaty operation and implementation issues---Slow progress at the negotiations

614

(19)

Regional arms control in Europe Implementation of the Florence Agreement---Negotiations under Article V of the Agreement on Regional Stabilization

633

(3)

The Open Skies Treaty

636

(1)

Conventional arms control endeavours outside Europe Asia---Pacific---Latin America

637

(5)

Conclusions

642

(2)

Destruction or conversion of Russian conventional armaments and equipment beyond the Urals to civilian use, valid as of May 1998

615

(1)

CFE ceilings and holdings, as of 1 January 1999

616

(1)

Reductions of TLE belonging to naval infantry and coastal defence forces required by the legally binding Soviet pledge of 14 June 1991, as of May 1998

617

(4)

NATO's illustrative ceilings for ground TLE, December 1997

621

(1)

Projected and adjusted levels for the territorial ceilings of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, as of 30 March 1999

622

(22)

Appendix 14A. Confidence-and security-building measures in Europe

644

(1)

Zdzislaw Lachowski

Pia Kronestedt

Introduction

644

(1)

Vienna Document CSBMs The Annual Implementation Assessment Meeting---Improving the Vienna Document 1994---The implementation record for 1998

644

(5)

Regional CSBMs Confidence-building measures in the Aegean Sea region---Implementation of the Agreement on CSBMs in Bosnia and Herzegovina---The Baltic Sea region

649

(4)

Seminar on Defence Policies and Military Doctrines

653

(1)

Conclusions

654

(1)

Existing and proposed notification and observation thresholds for and constraints on military activities

647

(1)

Calendar of planned notifiable military activities in 1999, exchanged by 18 December 1998

648

(7)

Appendix 14B. The ban on anti-personnel mines

655

(1)

Zdzislaw Lachowski

Introduction

655

(1)

The APM Convention

656

(2)

Amended Protocol II

658

(1)

The Conference on Disarmament

658

(1)

Demining Estimates of the numbers of landmines

659

(3)

Conclusions

662

(5)

The status of the APM Convention, as of 29 April 1999

657

(6)

Appendix 14C. North Atlantic Council statement on CFE

663

(4)

Non-cooperative responses to proliferation: multilateral dimensions

667

(74)

Ian Anthony

Elisabeth M. French

Introduction A categorization of non-cooperative responses to proliferation events

667

(5)

Iraq: sanctions and use of force as instruments of disarmament and non-proliferation Sanctions related to disarmament and non-proliferation

672

(5)

International response to nuclear tests by India and Pakistan Economic Sanctions---Export controls and India and Pakistan

677

(13)

Conclusions

690

(2)

Appendix 15A. Multilateral weapon and technology export controls

692

(1)

Ian Anthony

Jean Pascal Zanders

Introduction

692

(1)

The Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Zangger Committee

692

(2)

The Australia Group

694

(1)

The Missile Technology Control Regime

695

(4)

The Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and Technology

699

(4)

Membership of multilateral weapon and technology export control regimes, as of 1 January 1999

693

(10)

Annexes

Annexe A. Arms control and disarmament agreements

703

(22)

Ragnhild Ferm

Annexe B. Chronology 1998

725

(10)

Ragnhild Ferm

About the contributors

735

(6)

Abstracts

741

(7)

Errata

748

(1)

Index

749

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SIPRI Yearbook 1999 Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security

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Table of Contents

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