SIPRI Yearbook 2000 Armaments, Disarmaments, and International Security

, by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

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ISBN: 9780199241620 | 0199241627
Cover: Hardcover
Copyright: 11/9/2000

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Summary

Supplemental Materials

The 31st edition of the Yearbook analyzes developments during 1998 in security and conflicts, military spending and armaments, nonproliferation, and arms control and disarmament.

Dedication

Preface

xvii

Acronyms

xviii

Glossary

xxiv

Ragnhild Ferm

Connie Wall

Christer Berggren

Introduction: In search of a global security system for the 21st century

(1)

Adam Daniel Rotfeld

The key emerging trends

(1)

Divergent concepts of the world structure

(2)

Regional developments

(1)

A functional and pragmatic approach

(2)

The Stockholm Agenda for Arms Control

(1)

SIPRI findings

(4)

Conclusions

(3)

Part I. Security and conflicts, 1999

Major armed conflicts

(62)

Taylor B. Seybolt

Introduction

(3)

Major armed conflicts between states Eritrea--Ethiopia--India--Pakistan

(4)

Major armed conflicts within states Conflicts that involved foreign military intervention--Conflicts without foreign military intervention

(25)

Conclusions

(3)

Regional distribution, number and types of major armed conflicts, 1990-99

(1)

Regional distribution and total number of major armed conflicts, 1990-99

(34)

Major armed conflicts, 1999

(9)

Margareta Sollenberg

Staffan Angman

Ylva Blondel

Ann-Sofi Jakobsson Hatay

Andres Jato

Thomas Ohlson

Peter Wallensteen

Table of conflict locations with at least one major armed conflict in 1999

(7)

The war in the Democratic Republic of Congo

(1)

Taylor B. Seybolt

Introduction

(2)

The outbreak of war in 1998 Underlying and immediate causes--Rebel advances and the entrance of government allies

(8)

Stalemate

(2)

The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement

(2)

The regional context

(1)

Conclusions

(3)

Armed parties in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as of 1999

Map of the Democratic Republic of Congo showing territory held by each rebel group as of December 1999

(17)

Armed conflict prevention, management and resolution

(80)

Renata Dwan

Introduction

(1)

The United Nations

(19)

Regional organizations

(18)

Multinational coalitions

115

(5)

Other players

120

(11)

Conclusions

131

(4)

Statistics on UN peacekeeping operations in 1990-99

(39)

Multilateral peace missions, 1999

135

(22)

Renata Dwan

Thomas Papworth

Marta Reuter

Henry Wathen

Multilateral peace missions

136

(21)

Russia: separatism and conflicts in the North Caucasus

157

(24)

Gennady Chufrin

Introduction

157

(1)

Separatism on ethnic grounds

157

(5)

The Chechen conflict

162

(16)

Conclusions

178

(3)

Map of the Caucasus

158

(14)

Map of Chechnya

172

(9)

Europe: the new transatlantic agenda

181

(50)

Adam Daniel Rotfeld

Introduction

181

(2)

NATO in 1999: new strategies, old structures

183

(12)

The European Union: a common security and defence policy

195

(6)

The OSCE: managing change in the new century

201

(7)

Conclusions

208

(1)

The overlapping membership of multilateral Euro--Atlantic security organizations, as of 1 January 2000

182

(27)

Documents on European security

209

(22)

Part II. Military spending and armaments, 1999

Military expenditure

231

(68)

Elisabeth Skons

Evamaria Loose-Weintraub

Wuyi Omitoogun

Petter Stalenheim

Introduction

231

(1)

Global and regional trends and patterns Regional military expenditure--The major spenders

232

(4)

The economic burden of military expenditure The cost and financing of wars

236

(4)

Central America

240

(3)

South Asia

243

(1)

East Asia

244

(4)

Russia

248

(7)

Central and Eastern Europe

255

(1)

The USA

256

(4)

Regional military expenditure estimates, 1990-99

234

(2)

The 15 major spenders in 1999

236

(1)

The economic burden of military and social expenditure, 1995-96

237

(1)

Military expenditures as a share of GDP, select countries, 1990-98

238

(4)

Central America: military expenditure and other security expenditure, 1999

242

(4)

Chinese military expenditure, 1995-99

246

(1)

East Asia: military expenditure in five countries, 1990-99

247

(2)

The Russian Federation: military expenditure, 1992-2000

249

(1)

Russian defence budgets, disaggregated, 1995--2000

250

(4)

Military and arms procurement expenditure in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, 1995-99

254

(4)

US military expenditure, budget authority by function, FY 2000-05

258

(2)

Tables of military expenditure

260

(25)

Elisabeth Skons

Evamaria Loose--Weintraub

Wyui Omitoogun

Petter Stalenheim

Military expenditure by region, in constant US dollars, 1990-99

260

(4)

Military expenditure by region and country, in local currency, 1990-99

264

(6)

Military expenditure by region and country, in constant US dollars, 1990-99

270

(6)

Military expenditure by region and country, as percentage of gross domestic product, 1990-99

276

(9)

Table of NATO military expenditure

285

(3)

NATO distribution of military expenditure by category, 1990-99

285

(3)

Sources and methods for military expenditure data

288

(1)

Purpose of the data

288

(1)

Sources

288

(1)

Methods

289

(2)

Military expenditure in Africa

291

(1)

Wuyi Omitoogun

Introduction

291

(1)

The financing of armed conflicts

292

(1)

Countries on whose territory conflict is taking place

293

(2)

Countries siding with a faction in war

295

(3)

Countries involved in peacekeeping operations

298

(1)

African military expenditure, 1990-99

292

(7)

Arms production

299

(40)

Elisabeth Skons

Reinhilde Weidacher

Introduction

299

(2)

The SIPRI `top 100'

301

(2)

The concentration of arms production

303

(11)

Trends in arms production during the 1990s

314

(6)

Russia

320

(7)

Regional/national shares of arms sales for the top 100 arms-producing companies in the OECD and developing countries in 1998

302

(6)

The structure of the West European arms industry in early 2000

308

(6)

Major arms--producing companies and foreign ownership in Australia and South Africa, 1999

314

(1)

Trends in national arms production, 1987-98

315

(1)

Trends in government expenditure on military R&D, 1990-98

316

(1)

Trends in the value of combined arms sales and in average company size of the top 100, top 50, top 10 and top 5 arms--producing companies, 1990-98

317

(1)

Companies which had the largest increase in the military share in sales, 1990-98

318

(1)

Trends in the arms exports in total arms sales in the USA, the UK and France, 1990-98

319

(1)

Changes in the share of exports in total arms sales in major arms-- producing companies, 1989-91 and 1996-98

320

(2)

Russia: output and employment in the defence complex (VPK), 1991-99

322

(4)

The agencies of the Russian arms industry, autumn 1999

326

(1)

The 100 largest arms-producing companies, 1998

327

(7)

Reinhilde Weidacher

The 100 largest arms-producing companies in the OECD and developing countries, 1998

328

(6)

Major acquisitions by West European and US arms-producing companies, 1998-.January 2000

334

(5)

Major acquisitions among US arms-producing companies, 1998-January 2000

334

(2)

International acquisitions among major West European arms-producing companies, 1998-January 2000

336

(1)

Transatlantic acquisitions among major arms producing companies, 1998-January 2000

337

(1)

Acquisitions by Western arms-producing companies in other regions, 1998-January 2000

338

(1)

Transfers of major conventional weapons

339

(104)

Bjorn Hagelin

Pieter D. Wezeman

Siemon T. Wezeman

Introduction

339

(1)

The major suppliers and recipients

340

(4)

Major arms transfers and conflict

344

(5)

Economic considerations

349

(7)

Foreign and military policy considerations

356

(4)

Arms transfer reporting and transparency

360

(3)

International arms embargoes

363

(3)

Conclusions

366

(2)

Transfers of major conventional weapons to the leading recipients, 1995-99

341

(1)

Shares of new equipment in transfers of major conventional weapons by the seven major suppliers, 1995-99

342

(14)

Examples of supplier competition for sales of aircraft, tanks and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems in 1999

356

(8)

International arms embargoes

364

The trend in transfers of major conventional weapons, 1985-99

340

(28)

The volume of transfers of conventional weapons: by recipients and suppliers, 1995-99

368

(6)

Bjorn Hagelin

Pieter D. Wezeman

Siemon T. Wezeman

The recipients of major conventional weapons

368

(4)

The suppliers of major conventional weapons

372

(2)

The volume of transfers of conventional weapons: by regions and other groups of recipients and suppliers, 1990-99

374

(4)

Bjorn Hagelin

Pieter D. Wezeman

Siemon T. Wezeman

Volume of imports of major conventional weapons

374

(1)

Volume of exports of major conventional weapons

375

(3)

378

(56)

Bjorn Hagelin

Pieter D. Wezeman

Siemon T. Wezeman

378

(54)

Index of suppliers of major conventional weapons and their recipients and licencees, 1999

432

(2)

Sources and methods

434

(1)

The SIPRI sources

434

(1)

Selection criteria

434

(1)

The SIPRI trend--indicator value

435

(1)

Continuity

435

(1)

Government and industry statistics on national arms exports'

436

(7)

Pieter D. Wezeman

Government and industry data on national arms exports, 1994-98

437

(6)

Part III. Non--proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 1999

Nuclear arms control and non-proliferation

443

(66)

Shannon Kile

Introduction

443

(1)

The ABM Treaty and ballistic missile defence

444

(10)

The START treaties

454

(3)

Russian--US cooperative nuclear security activities

457

(6)

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test--Ban Treaty

463

(7)

Negotiations on a Fissile Material Treaty

470

(1)

The NPT Preparatory Committee

471

(3)

The US-North Korean Agreed Framework

474

(1)

Nuclear doctrines

475

(1)

Conclusions

476

(2)

START I aggregate numbers of strategic nuclear delivery vehicles and accountable warheads, 1 January 2000

456

(5)

Summary of the principal activities in Russia's `nuclear cities'

461

(17)

Tables of nuclear forces

478

(18)

Robert S. Norris

William M. Arkin

US nuclear forces, January 2000

479

(4)

Russian nuclear forces, January 2000

483

(3)

British nuclear forces, January 2000

486

(1)

French nuclear forces, January 2000

487

(2)

Chinese nuclear forces, January 2000

489

(2)

Indian nuclear forces, January 2000

491

(1)

Pakistani nuclear forces, January 2000

492

(2)

Israeli nuclear forces, January 2000

494

(2)

Nuclear verification: the IAEA strengthened safeguards system

496

(1)

Nicholas Zarimpas

Introduction

496

(1)

Classical safeguards

496

(3)

The need to strengthen safeguards

499

(3)

The evolution of the IAEA strengthened safeguards system

502

(4)

Prospects and concerns

506

(2)

Conclusions

508

(1)

Chemical and biological weapon developments and arms control

509

(68)

Jean Pascal Zanders

Maria Wahlberg

Introduction

509

(1)

Chemical weapon disarmament

510

(10)

Biological weapon disarmament

520

(6)

Proliferation concerns

526

(9)

Conclusions

535

(2)

Risk assesment of terrorism with chemical and biological weapons

537

(1)

Jean Pascal Zanders

Edvard Karlsson

Lena Melin

Erik Naslund

Lennart Thaning

Introduction

537

(1)

Understanding chemical and biological terrorism

538

(2)

Profiles of terrorist organizations with interest in CBW

540

(5)

Sub-state proliferation: the process of acquiring CBW

545

(4)

Assessing the consequences of the release of CBW

549

(9)

Conclusions

558

(2)

Estimated dose-response relation (infection) for inhaled anthrax spores

553

Relative concentration pattern 2 minutes after release

551

(1)

Relative concentration pattern 6 minutes after release

551

(1)

Relative concentration pattern 18 minutes after start and 3 minutes after end of release

552

(1)

Dose-response relationship for anthrax

552

(1)

Number of anthrax spores inhaled and retained in the lungs

553

(3)

Simulation of the plume dispersion in Matsumoto

556

(1)

Probability of injuries as a function of acquired dose (AD) of sarin

556

(4)

The future of chemical and biological weapon disarmament in Iraq: from UNSCOM to UNMOVIC

560

(1)

Maria Wahlberg

Milton Leitenberg

Jean Pascal Zanders

Introduction

560

(1)

Developments in 1999

560

(6)

The legacy of UNSCOM

566

(3)

Summary of the UNSCOM findings

569

(1)

Conclusions

569

(8)

Chemical weapons in Iraq, as of January 1999

570

(2)

Biological weapons in Iraq, as of January 1999

572

(5)

Conventional arms control

577

(70)

Zdzislaw Lachowski

Introduction

577

(2)

Conventional arms control in Europe: the CFE Treaty

579

(10)

The adapted CFE Treaty regime

589

(11)

Regional arms control in Europe

600

(4)

The Open Skies Treaty

604

(1)

Conventional arms control--related endeavours outside Europe

604

(4)

Anti--personnel mines

608

(2)

Conclusions

610

(3)

CFE ceilings and holdings, as of 1 January 1999

578

(1)

Reductions of TLE belonging to naval infantry and coastal defence forces required by the legally binding Soviet pledge of 14 June 1991, as of May 1999

579

(1)

Destruction or conversion of Russian conventional armaments and equipment beyond the Urals to civilian use, valid as of May 1999

580

(10)

National ceilings and sub-ceilings for TLE categories in active units

590

(1)

Territorial ceilings and territorial sub-ceilings for ground TLE categories

591

(1)

National TLE limits under the 1990 CFE Treaty and the 1999 Agreement on Adaptation

592

(1)

CFE Treaty limits and holdings, 1990-99

593

(1)

Russian and Ukrainian entitlements in the former flank zone and the redefined flank zone

593

(16)

The status of the APM Convention, as of 14 March 2000

609

(4)

Confidence- and security-building measures in Europe

613

(1)

Zdzislaw Lachowski

Introduction

613

(1)

Vienna Documents of CSBMs

613

(9)

Regional CSBMs

622

(2)

Conclusions

624

(2)

Notified military activities planned for 2000 and information on additional activities held in 1999

620

(6)

Documents on conventional arms control

626

(21)

Responses to proliferation: the North Korean ballistic missile programme

647

(78)

Ian Anthony

Introduction

647

(2)

The North Korean ballistic missile programme Missiles under development

649

(4)

Responses to North Korea's ballistic missile programme Multilateral political responses--National responses

653

(11)

Conclusions

664

(3)

Multilateral weapon and technology export controls

667

(1)

Ian Anthony

Introduction

667

(1)

The Zangger Committee, the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Australia Group

667

(3)

The Missile Technology Control Regime

670

(2)

The Wassenaar Arrangement

672

(8)

Adaptation of the European Union dual-use export control system

680

(4)

Conclusions

684

(4)

Membership of multilateral weapon and technology export control regimes, as of 1 January 2000

668

(20)

The Wassenaar Arrangement 1999 plenary meeting statement

688

(3)

Annexes

Annexe A. Arms control and disarmament agreements

691

(24)

Ragnhild Ferm

Annexe B. Chronology 1999

715

(10)

Ragnhild Ferm

Christer Berggren

About the contributors

725

(6)

Abstracts

731

(6)

Errata

737

(1)

Index

738

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SIPRI Yearbook 2000 Armaments, Disarmaments, and International Security

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials