Technology and Security in the 21st Century A

The immense impact of technology on both warfare and security has been clearly demonstrated and has heightened concerns relating to the proliferation of military technology and misuse by irresponsible actors. This report presents evidence of the increasing relevance of technology in the 21st century and a brief review of the control regimes, as well as the perspectives of progressive developing nations. It highlights the need for a new approach to the management of technology and security issues.

Amitav Mallik was Professor of Electronics at the Institute of Armament Technology, Pune and became Director of the Defence Science Centre in 1996 and established the Laser Science & Technology Centre.

Preface

vii

Foreword

ix

Acronyms

xi

Introduction: technology and security in the 21st century

Background

1

(3)

Technology diffusion

4

(3)

Proliferation and disarmament

7

(7)

Technology controls

14

(2)

New technologies and new concerns

16

(3)

Organization of this report

19

(3)

Changing threat perceptions and proliferation concerns

22

(37)

The changing world order

22

(9)

The regional impact of conventional arms transfers

31

(4)

Future conflicts and threat perceptions

35

(7)

Causes of WMD proliferation

42

(9)

Prioritizing proliferation concerns

51

(4)

Future challenges

55

(4)

Five recipients of US aid related to the war on terrorism

32

National security parameters

24

(35)

A different perspective on arms control and export control regimes

59

(43)

Arms control and disarmament

59

(11)

The Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

70

(6)

The changing environment for export controls

76

(6)

Missile proliferation, the Missile Technology Control Regime and ballistic missile defence

82

(10)

The efficacy of multilateral export control regimes

92

(10)

Membership of multilateral weapon and technology transfer control regimes, as of 1 January 2004

60

(42)

Technology diffusion in the 21st century

102

(20)

Technological interplay

102

(2)

The impact of new technologies

104

(9)

Future trends in technology and strategy

113

(4)

New patterns of technology diffusion

117

(5)

Conclusions

122

(21)

In summary

122

(6)

The future of technology controls

128

(3)

A new approach to technology management

131

(4)

Conclusions and recommendations

135

(8)

Index

143

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Technology and Security in the 21st Century A Demand-side Perspective

Summary

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Table of Contents

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