A Treatise on Northern Ireland, Volume III Consociation and Confederation

The Good Friday Agreement deserved the attention the world gave it, even if it was not always accurately understood. After its ratification in two referendums, for the first time in history political institutions throughout the island of Ireland rested upon the freely given assent of majorities of all the peoples on the island.

It marked, it was hoped, the full political decolonization of Ireland. Whether Ireland would reunify, or whether Northern Ireland remain in union with Great Britain now rested on the will of the people of Ireland, North and South respectively: a complex mode of power-sharing addressed the self-determination dispute.

The concluding volume of Brendan O'Leary's A Treatise on Northern Ireland explains the making of this settlement, and the many failed initiatives that preceded it under British direct rule. Long-term structural and institutional changes and short-term political maneuvers are given their due in this lively but comprehensive assessment. The Anglo-Irish Agreement is identified as the political tipping point, itself partially the outcome of the hunger strikes of 1980-81 that had prevented the criminalization of republicanism.

Until 2016 the prudent judgment seemed to be that the Good Friday Agreement had broadly worked, eventually enabling Sinn Fein and the DUP to share power, with intermittent attention from the sovereign governments. Cultural Catholics appeared content if not in love with the Union with Great Britain. But the decision to hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union has collaterally damaged and destabilized the Good Friday Agreement. That, in turn, has shaped the UK's tortured exit negotiations with the European Union.

In appraising these recent events and assessing possible futures, readers will find O'Leary's distinctive angle of vision clear, sharp, unsentimental, and unsparing of reputations, in keeping with the mastery of the historical panoramas displayed throughout this treatise.

Brendan O'Leary, Lauder Professor of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania

Brendan O'Leary is the Lauder Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and World Leading Researcher Visiting Professor of Political Science at Queen's University Belfast. He is the inaugural winner of the Juan Linz Prize of the International Political Science Association for lifetime contributions to the study of federalism, democratization, and multinational states, and was recently elected an Honorary Member of the Royal Irish Academy and to Membership of the US Council on Foreign Relations. Educated in Northern Ireland, Oxford, and the London School of Economics & Political Science he advised parties and governments during and after the making of the Good Friday Agreement. His extensive publications include Power-Sharing in Deeply Divided Places (co-editor, University of Pennsylvania Press, 2013), The Northern Ireland Conflict (OUP, 2004), and Explaining Northern Ireland (co-author, Blackwell, 1995).

Volume 3: Consociation and Confederation
From Antagonism to Accommodation?
List of Figures
List of Maps
List of Tables
List of Boxes
Abbreviations and Glossary
Terminology
3.1. Conceptual Conspectus: Consociation and Arbitration
3.2. "No. Please Understand": The Return to Imperial Direct Rule and the Limits to British Arbitration, 1972-1985
3.3. An Experiment in Coercive Consociation: The Making, Meaning(s), and Outcomes of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, 1985-1992
3.4. A Tract of Time between War and Peace: Melding Negotiations and a Peace Process, and the Making of the Belfast and British-Irish Agreements, 1992-1998
3.5. The Making, Meaning(s), and Tasks of the 1998 Agreement
3.6. The Long Negotiation: The Tribunes Become Consuls, 2002-2016
3.7. Confederal and Consociational Futures
Acknowledgments
Notes
Bibliography
Index