Turkey at the Crossroads from Crisis Resolution to Eu Accession

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ISBN: 9781589063860 | 1589063864
Cover: Paperback
Copyright: 10/1/2005

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Almost five years after the 2000-01 economic crisis, the fortunes of Turkey's economy have been transformed, with rapid economic growth for three successive years. This paper analyzes Turkey's economic performance under its reform program supported by the IMF and sets out guideposts for the reform agenda that lies ahead. Chapters examine economic growth since 1960, inflation, balance sheet developments, debt, the sustainability of fiscal adjustment, bank restructuring, and labor market developments, as well as the lessons from an empirical model of fiscal policy in emerging markets.

Preface	p. vii
Overview	p. 1
Economic Growth in Turkey, 1960-2000	p. 3
Recent Growth and Volatility Trends	p. 4
Correlates of Growth	p. 5
Cross-Country Regression Analysis	p. 9
Sources of Policy Volatility	p. 13
Conclusions	p. 15
Turkey's Inflation Process	p. 17
The Importance of Inflation Expectations	p. 17
What Determines Inflation Expectations?	p. 19
Conclusions and Challenges	p. 20
Balance Sheet Developments Since the Crisis	p. 22
The Effect of Crisis and Recovery on External Assets and Liabilities	p. 22
Resolution of the Crisis and Recovery of Balance Sheets in Each Sector	p. 24
Main Links Between Sectoral Balance Sheets and Associated Risks	p. 30
Conclusions and Policy Implications	p. 32
How Much Debt Is Too Much?	p. 33
Main Features of Turkey's Public Debt	p. 33
Deterministic Debt Sustainability Exercise	p. 35
Stochastic Debt Sustainability Exercise	p. 35
Fiscal Track Record Approach	p. 36
Empirical Debt Sustainability	p. 36
Fiscal Dominance of Monetary Policy	p. 37
Other Considerations	p. 38
Conclusions	p. 38
Progress and Challenges in Public Debt Management	p. 39
Improved Debt Structure	p. 41
Challenges Ahead for Debt Management	p. 42
Lessons from an Empirical Model of Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets	p. 43
Debt Sustainability and the Primary Surplus	p. 43
The Empirical Model	p. 43
Key Results	p. 44
The Case of Turkey	p. 46
Conclusions	p. 48
Sustainability of the Fiscal Adjustment	p. 49
Fiscal Adjustments	p. 49
Defining a "Successful" Adjustment Episode	p. 50
Conclusions	p. 53
Bank Restructuring and Financial Sector Reform	p. 54
Crisis Outbreak and Containment	p. 54
Bank Restructuring Strategy	p. 55
Outcome of the Bank Rehabilitation Program	p. 58
Challenges Ahead	p. 59
Lessons Learned	p. 62
Labor Market Developments	p. 64
Labor Supply	p. 64
Labor Demand	p. 67
Labor Market Regulation	p. 69
Conclusions	p. 70
References	p. 72
Boxes
Elements of the Bank Recapitalization Program	p. 57
The Imar Commission Report	p. 60
Priority Areas for Legal Reform	p. 61
Tables
Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 1960-2000	p. 5
Growth Accounting, 1961-2000	p. 6
Summary Statistics, Selected Variables	p. 7
Cross-Country Growth Difference Regressions	p. 11
Additional Cross-Country Growth Difference Regressions	p. 11
Decomposition of Turkey's 20-Year Growth Differential	p. 12
Decomposition of Turkey's Decadal Growth Differentials	p. 14
Cross-Country Difference Regressions with Assorted Dependent Variables	p. 14
Cross-Country Fiscal Volatility Regressions	p. 15
Determinants of Inflationary Expectations	p. 20
Extent of Liability Dollarization in Turkey's Economy, end-2003	p. 24
Foreign Currency Mismatch in the Banking Sector	p. 25
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Turkey at the Crossroads from Crisis Resolution to Eu Accession

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Turkey at the Crossroads from Crisis Resolution to Eu Accession

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