Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability

Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability identifies the major impacts of sea-level rise, presents up-to-date assessments of past sea-level change, thoroughly explores all of the factors contributing to sea-level rise, and explores how sea-level extreme events might change. It identifies what is known in each area and what research and observations are required to reduce the uncertainties in our understanding of sea-level rise so that more reliable future projections can be made. A synthesis of findings provides a concise summary of past, present and future sea-level rise and its impacts on society.Key Features: Book includes contributions from a range of international sea level experts Multidisciplinary Four color throughout Describes the limits of our understanding of this crucial issue as well as pointing to directions for future researchThe book is for everyone interested in sea-level rise and its impacts, including policy makers, research funders, scientists, students, coastal managers and engineers.

John Church is an oceanographer with the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. He was co-convening lead author for the chapter on sea level in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. He was awarded the 2006 Roger Revelle Medal by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, a CSIRO Medal for Research Achievement in 2006, and the 2007 Eureka Prize for Scientific Research.

Philip Woodworth works at the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory in Liverpool. He is a former Director of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and Chairman of Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). He has been a lead or contributing author for each of the IPCC Research Assessments. He was awarded the Denny Medal of IMAREST in 2009 for innovation in sea-level technology and the Vening Meinesz Medal of the European Geosciences Union in 2010 for work in geodesy.

Thorkild Aarup is Senior Program Specialist with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO and serves as technical secretary for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) program. He has a PhD in oceanography from the University of Copenhagen.

Stan Wilson has managed programs during his career, first at the Office of Naval Research where he led the Navy’s basic research program in physical oceanography, then at NASA Headquarters where he established the Oceanography from Space program, and finally at NOAA where he helped organize the 20-country coalition in support of the Argo Program of profiling floats. Currently the Senior Scientist for NOAA’s Satellite & Information Service, he is helping transition Jason satellite altimetry from research into a capability to be sustained by the operational agencies NOAA and EUMETSAT.

Editor Biographies
List of Contributors
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Introduction
References
Impacts of and Responses to Sea-Level Rise
Introduction
Climate Change and Global/Relative Sea-Level Rise
Sea-Level Rise and Resulting Impacts
Framework and Methods for the Analysis of Sea-Level-Rise Impacts
Recent Impacts of Sea-Level Rise
Future Impacts of Sea-Level Rise
Responding to Sea-Level Rise
Next Steps
Concluding Remarks
Acknowledgments
References
A First-Order Assessment of the Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels on Offshore Structures and Coastal Refineries
Introduction
Design Considerations
Impact of Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels
Evaluating the Economic Impact
Conclusions
References
Paleoenvironmental Records, Geophysical Modeling, and Reconstruction of Sea-Level Trends and Variability on Centennial and Longer Timescales
Introduction
Past Sea-Level Changes
Sea-Level Indicators
Geophysical Modeling of Variability in Relative Sea-Level History
Regional Case Studies
Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References
Modern Sea-Level-Change Estimates
Introduction
Estimates from Proxy Sea-Level Records
Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Tide Gauges
Estimates of Global Sea-Level Change from Satellite Altimetry
Recommendations
Acknowledgments
References
Ocean Temperature and Salinity Contributions to Global and Regional Sea-Level Change
Introduction
Direct Estimates of Steric Sea-Level Rise
Estimating Steric Sea-Level Change Using Ocean Syntheses
Inferring Steric Sea Level from Time-Variable Gravity and Sea Level
Modeling Steric Sea-Level Rise
Conclusions and Recommendations
Acknowledgments
References
Cryospheric Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability
Introduction
Mass-Balance Techniques
Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
Mass Balance of Glaciers and Ice Caps
Glacier, Ice-Cap, and Ice-Sheet Modeling
Summary and Recommendations
References
Terrestrial Water-Storage Contributions to Sea-Level Rise and Variability
Introduction
Analysis Tools
Climate-Driven Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage
Direct Anthropogenic Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage
Synthesis
Recommendations
References
Geodetic Observations and Global Reference Frame Contributions to Understanding Sea-Level Rise and Variability
Introduction
Global and Regional Reference Systems
Linking GPS to Tide Gauges and Tide-Gauge Benchmarks
Recommendations for Geodetic Observations
Acknowledgments
References
Surface Mass Loading on a Dynamic Earth: Complexity and Contamination in the Geodetic Analysis of Global Sea-Level Trends
Introduction
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
Sea Level, Sea Surface, and the Geoid
Rapid Melting and Sea-Level Fingerprints
Great Earthquakes
Final Remarks
Acknowledgments
References
Past and Future Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves
Introduction
Evidence for Changes in Extreme Sea Levels and Waves in the Recent Past
Mid-Latitude and Tropical Storms: Changes in the Atmospheric Drivers of Extreme Sea Level
Future Extreme Water Levels
Future Research Needs
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
References
Observing Systems Needed to Address Sea-Level Rise and Variability
Introduction
Sustained, Systematic Observing Systems (Existing Capabilities)
Development of Improved Observing Systems (New Capabilities)
Summary
References
Sea-Level Rise and Variability: Synthesis and Outlook for the Future
Historical Sea-Level Change
Why is Sea Level Rising?
The Regional Distribution of Sea-Level Rise
Projections of Sea-Level Rise for the 21st Century and Beyond
Changes in Extreme Events
Sea Level and Society
References
Index
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Understanding Sea-level Rise and Variability

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Author Biography

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